Week 3 Preview: A September 'Must Win'

Now, for a lesson in Overreaction Theater: This Sunday’s game in Arizona is a must-win contest.

I know it’s early (really early) in the season. Still, I can’t help but think this is a critical moment for this team, and something of a signpost game—which way are things going to go this season?

One of the things that makes the NFL so great, so unlike other major team sports, is the short schedule. There are only 16 games, and all of them matter tremendously. There is no time for early season adjustments. No time really to “figure things out.”

Sure, a team can start off slow and get hot at the end (and can win a Super Bowl doing so—ahem, '12 Ravens and '11 Giants), but in our division and our conference these early struggles can put you way behind the 8-ball.

from sfgate.com

Total, merciless domination. I will be happy with nothing less.

Even at this point in the season there is a MASSIVE difference between 2-1 with the division lead and 1-2 in third place.

Like most, I am guilty of being overly silent regarding the Cardinals. They do not get enough credit as a true threat to the NFC West crown. I’ve always acknowledged them as a good team, but the fact is, for the 49ers the Seahawks are a much greater threat, so the Cardinals tend to get buried in every discussion about the division.

This week, that ceases to be the case. We have no greater enemy than the Arizona Cardinals and our attention should be focused on them alone.

I seriously have the tiniest amount of interest in the Seahawks’ Super Bowl rematch. They’ll handle the Broncos like they handled the Packers. They’re at home and they’re still really, really good (even if they’re nowhere near as good as every so-called “expert” who crowned them repeat champs after Week 1 said they were. How easy it is to forget the Seahawks aren’t the same team away from home.)

We can’t find triumph in the defeat of other teams, we need to just win games. Every damn game. So while it would be a cherry on top of a 49ers' win if the Seahawks lose, I’m not even hoping for it (OK I’m hoping for it a little). They should win that game. We should win our game. We need to.

Look, if we lose this game we aren’t buried. I know this. There’s 13 more chances to prove we are a good team. We have plenty of excuses to point to if we do lose. We are without our top cornerback, our top pass rusher, our top defensive player, our starting nose tackle, our Pro-Bowl right tackle and most likely our all-world tight end.

But we can’t simply tread water either. There needs to be a sense of urgency about this game. Things aren’t going to get a whole lot easier for us after this game, with a date against the Eagles, who have clearly been a tough team to beat through the first two weeks, next on the schedule.

The Niners need to get back the momentum we so embarrassingly flushed away last week; silence the critics and the fans like me who care too much to not panic over a Week 3 game.

How can we do this? I have some ideas.

from ninerfans.com

1) Unleash Kaepernick. This probably sounds counterintuitive, he just had a horrendous game. However, if we’re going to make it through this stretch of games without some of our top talent and a defense that is solid but not up to its normal standards, we’re going to need to place some extra responsibility on Kaep and the offense. Let him loose.

So far the offense has revolved around running plays and long developing intermediate routes. I would like to see Roman dial up a real game-plan built around the passing offense. Easy completions on quick hitting routes, wide receiver screens, etc. Let the passing game open up lanes for Gore and Hyde.

Whenever the 49ers, under Harbaugh, have become a “pass-first” offense, even this passing game is predicated on the threat of the run game. It is typically out of two tight end sets, with heavy play action and roll-out elements. Sure the ball is being thrown more, but it’s under the guise of our power-run game.

Get rid of the disguise and let Kaepernick operate. Let him be a weapon.

from ninersnation.com

2) Speaking of weapons—get Bruce Ellington and Carlos Hyde involved in the passing game. Hyde is a big, powerful back, but all evidence has proved him to be a very good pass-catcher. Swing him out of the backfield and let him get downhill on some smaller cornerbacks and safeties. There are more ways to be physical on offense than simply bashing it down the throat of a defense (which I’m not advocating getting away from completely).

Let Ellington play some receiver and dial up some plays where he is the primary target. Ellington can be more than just a chess piece to get other guys open, or to provide misdirection on run plays. He was a vacuum in the preseason, and he’s tough as nails. Let the kid play some meaningful snaps. The offense needs a spark, and Ellington is pure electricity.

from sfgate.com

3) Blitz. Fangio has always been a reluctant blitzer, but we are playing a team with a fairly brand new offensive line and a backup quarterback. Bruce Arians likes to spread the field and run his backs out of the backfield on routes. That has typically but a lot of pressure on his quarterbacks to either get the ball out quick or stand in the pocket and take a beating. Ask Ben Roethlisberger how painful it is to play in an Arians system.

Playing coverage and rushing four (a so far ineffectual four) is playing into the Cardinals' hands. Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are big, big receivers. They will uncover if given enough time. They are not very sudden, however, and may struggle to separate early in routes on quicker hitting plays.

Drew Stanton has a strong arm, but he’s not particularly accurate. Like the quarterback he backed up for years in Detroit—Matt Stafford—he can throw a beautiful deep ball, or throw a frozen rope, but he also has a penchant for wild interceptions. Pressure him into inaccurate throws and be aggressive in the secondary. We can force turnovers against this offense, we just need to be aggressive, aggressive, aggressive.

I think that’s the big takeaway from last week’s debacle, and just the general state of the NFL: Be aggressive.

For those of you who watched the Falcons and Buccaneers game—that’s what we should have done to the Bears on Sunday night. The beginnings of those two games were not very different at all. The difference was that the Falcons sunk their teeth in and the Niners went limp.

I’m hoping we learned our lesson and we take out every ounce of frustration on the Cardinals this Sunday, because we need to.

49ers 20 - Bears 28: OPPORTUNITY SQUANDERED, PUSSYFOOTIN' TO BLAME

“I’d bet almost anything this is a pass to Crabs in the endzone.”

These were the final words I messaged to a friend during the timeout preceding our the 4^th and 9 play which ultimately ended the game.

It was, and like too (two) many others before it, the pass hit the ground and the other team cheered and smacked helmets while the 49er offense walked back to the sideline quietly, wondering what went wrong.

And while this incompletion didn’t signal the end to our season, just an early season game (albeit one with extra implications; the christening of our new stadium, and a chance to take an early leg up on the Seahawks), in many ways the failure remained the same.

The headline of Matt Maiocco’s post-game recap pretty much sums this one up: "Penalties, Turnovers, Lack of Killer Instinct Haunt 49ers inLoss."

Give Maiocco credit for word choice, because I can’t think up anything better than “haunt.” The same ghosts awake to haunt this team year in and year out. With the exception of those against the Seahawks, it is hard to remember a single loss in the last three years when the 49ers were decidedly outplayed by an opponent.

This isn’t to take anything away from the Bears necessarily, because they made big plays when they needed to make them. Just last week I went on for the entire opening of this column about how a football game is the summation of the plays each team makes.

So forgive me when I twist this maxim a little to say that this game was equally about the plays the 49ers didn’t make (or the mistakes they did) as it was about the plays the Bears did make.

Before I get into what I see as the largest failure of the 49ers, I want to touch on the officiating, which was horrendous.

Both teams had horrible calls go against them, that’s not the issue really. It was the management of the game by the referees. They brought the game to a grinding halt, not allowing for any rhythm to be established. And they did not do this to call egregious fouls, but to micromanage seemingly every single play.

The pace of the game was disastrous, and that falls squarely on the referees and the ineptitude with which they called the game. It really caused momentum swings for both sides, and more than anything made the game difficult to watch. I can only imagine it made it more difficult to play as well.

"You know what this game could use some more of? Penalties."
SAID NO ONE EVER.

To state the obvious issues with the game and my take on the lasting impact of what we all saw; the pass rush was largely nonexistent and wholly ineffective, Colin Kaepernick turned the ball over four times and the Bears cashed in for four touchdowns in the redzone.

I stated my case for Kaepernick last week and I have my sights on a longer, non-game-specific piece about him and my faith in him. I’ll use his own word to describe his performance, “Terrible,” but I don’t think he made a lot of mistakes with his reads. The delay of game penalty taken on the final drive was vomit inducing. The first interception showed a lack of detail to not at least look off the single high safety. The second interception was a poor choice in ball placement—he should have thrown to Crabtree’s inside shoulder—and a bit of luck on the part of Kyle Fuller. The third was almost a product of the first two, as he was trying to make a play while down in the game and forced a ball I think he normally wouldn’t have let fly under other circumstances. It was also a great defensive play by Fuller yet again. I’m not overly concerned with Kaep to be honest.

The defense letting in touchdowns I am not super worried about either. Three of the four were to Brandon Marshall against the man-to-man coverage of rookie Jimmie Ward who is a full five inches shorter and 30-40 pounds lighter. It was poor game-planning on Fangio’s part, which is rare indeed, and I think it will serve as a learning experience not just for Ward, but for everyone involved with the defensive side of the ball.

The pass rush is the major concern of the three. It was nice to see Aaron Lynch get increased snaps, but I think it was a poor choice to have them come at the expense of Ahmad Brooks. I know Corey Lemonier was the expected pass-rushing replacement to Aldon Smith, but after two games of completely ineffectual play (I don’t even think he has a quarterback hurry yet), it is time to look elsewhere for pass rushing proficiency. This is an issue that will likely last until Aldon comes back, but Fangio needs to continue to experiment with different personnel groupings to find something better than what we had tonight. Because this just isn’t going to cut it.

Two down, Seven to go.

As damning as all three of those things were on this specific night, an even more concerning problem reared its ugly head (yet again).

Of all the things which haunt the 49ers in these bang-your-head-against-the-wall losses we’ve suffered through two to three times a season during the Harbaugh erea it is the aforementioned “Killer Instinct” which seems to me the most culpable.

Why the hell, on a 3^rd and goal from the 6, up by 10 with a full 20 minutes to play, are we running an inside handoff out of the shotgun? And why is this so common (and ineffective) that it ceases to surprise a typical fan and just cause an immediate and depressingly familiar upwelling of sadness (“oh my god not again”) and rage (“come the fuck on!”).

First down, fine. Second down, fine. You need to run the ball down there, I get it. Everyone knows that. I’m not advocating for a pass only goalline offense. But unless you are a yard or less away, or intend to go for it on fourth down, there’s no reason for running the ball on third down anymore. It’s an acceptance of defeat, and it’s gutless.

"Come on Greg, you know you want to. Just for ol' times sake."

With the new rules in place to compel referees to throw a flag against a pass defender at even the slightest provocation, paired with the creativity of “pick” plays and timing routes (that we’ve seen from many other well-coordinated offenses…) finding success in the redzone in the passing game is easier than ever.

So why do we repeat the same tired mistakes?

Jim Harbaugh vaguely referenced something about a “run/pass option.”

So, the reporter asks, Kaepernick audibled to a run?

“No.”

Were there two plays called in the huddle, a different reporter asks?

“No.”

Trying to read into anything Jim Harbaugh says to the media is already a dangerous proposition, but when it is regarding to play-calling, you’ve pretty much entered the “nothing can be believed zone.”

BUT, with this ultimate caveat mentioned above, what little he says seems to suggest that even in the redzone, even on third down, even in a game that everyone can feel is on the verge of slipping away, a play-call immediately reverts to a run simply by the look given by the defense.

If this is the case—excuse me while I go scream into a pillow for a second—if this is the case, we need a change of philosophy yesterday. It’s disgusting.

This sort of limp-dick idiocy down in the redzone is the reason we had TWO 13-play drives stall within 9 yards of the Bears’ endzone.

The 49ers redzone/goalline offense has been the source of numerous stomach churning moments since Harbaugh took over, even during our best stretches of football.

While the 49ers tend to lean on the “lack of execution” excuse, it is clearly more an issue of creativity and—for lack of a better term—balls.

When we have the ball 10 yards away from a touchdown with three plays to get it in, we need to score. There is no reason, no reason at all, with the weapons we have that we should be consistently among the league’s worst offenses at redzone conversion rate. It’s inexcusable. Absolutely inexcusable.

"Well my general theory is that it's failed so many times, it can't possibly fail again can it? Odds are in our favor."

Give me Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde, Bruce Miller, Vernon Davis, Vance McDonald, Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Stevie Johnson and the playbook from Tecmo Bowl and I’ll score you touchdowns. Hell, give me a stick and a sandbox. Or a menu from Chili’s.

Whatever it is Greg Roman is doing, it sure as hell isn’t working (consistently) and it’s been costing us winnable games for far too long. Something, at a philosophical level, needs to change.

I’m tired of hearing about “adjustments,” when referencing our failures to punch it in. We don’t need “better execution” or “a play here or there,” we need a difference in thought process. We need to attack and we need to score points.

When you have a snake under your foot you don’t push down lightly until it suffocates, because it’s going to thrash until it sinks it’s fangs into your ankle. You smash its head in and grind your heel into the bits of blood-covered brain and skull fragments.

49ers Defeat Cowboys: WAXING POETIC & LASERS

from 49ers.com

It is always good to win. It is especially good to win against the Cowboys. And it is especially, especially good to win against the Cowboys in Dallas (Arlington…whatever) in a dominating fashion. Very few things tickle my fancy quite like watching Tony Romo look a fool. Though it happens with a fair bit of regularity, his dejected, eyes down, head-shaking walk back to the bench after an absurd decision turned interception has yet to lose its luster. It’s brilliant television.

But this win means a little more to me—had a little extra oomph—than every your typical win against the Cowboys, who, if we’re being serious, aren’t really our rivals anymore. They are in a traditional, nostalgic sort of way, but it’s hard to take a team seriously when their only great triumph over the last decade is an almost anomalous adherence to mediocrity. No, this wasn’t a great win because it was against the Cowboys, but because this game was a cymbal crash in the ears of every moron who’d been whispering the coming of the 49ers demise. Do you hear the ringing in your ears morons? That’s the sound of the glorious truth: The 49ers are really, really good at football.

from ifc.com

The 49ers are as good at football as this guy is at being really, really, really ridiculously good looking.

WAIT A SECOND

The resemblance is striking...but
Pete Carroll can dere-lick my balls, capitan

As any typical naysayer will tell you, the game could have gone in a very different manner. Our run defense was the worst it has ever been in the Jim Harbaugh era (and probably extending back to the Singletary era too). Without the turnovers, we probably would have been under a lot more pressure…

But this is revisionist nonsense. You can’t really play the “if” game in any major sport, football especially so. Teams are responsible for making their own opportunities and taking advantage of those opportunities. A game of football is, at its very core, a summation of the plays each team makes. It’s so stupidly obvious that most people overlook this extremely important fact. It’s useless wondering what the game could have been like if the 49ers didn’t start the game off with a fumble recovery for a touchdown. Or if Kaepernick hadn’t kept his footing for the TD strike to Vernon Davis. Or if Eric Reid didn’t follow that with an interception returned to the 1-yard line, setting up an easy third touchdown.

The fact is we made those plays. Dan Skuta did muscle the ball out of Demarco Murray’s hands. Chris Culliver was in the correct position and did use sure hands to pick up an awkwardly rolling, egg-shaped object and then sprint 30-yards to the endzone with it.

The offense did open up the game on fire, Colin Kaepernick gutting the woeful Cowboys secondary with absolute lasers (ABSOLUTE LASERS!) to Anquan Boldin and Davis.

Eric Reid did read Tony Romo’s eyes and come back across his zone to make a leaping interception, which he then brought to the one-yard line with an impressive, meandering, tackle-breaking return.

from 49ers.com

So, sure, I guess if we didn’t come out of the barrel making amazing, intelligent football plays we could have been in a much tighter game. We also could have held a Cowboys offense that last season ranked fifth in the league in points scored without a touchdown if the referees didn’t make two ticky-tack pass-infraction calls against Craig Dahl and Jimmy Ward on third-downs, twice extending Dallas’ first drive to end in a touchdown.

(In all seriousness, while every game I was able to watch this weekend featured more illegal-contact and holding calls against defensive secondaries than last year, our game was head and shoulders above the rest for flags thrown on these infractions, and for the ridiculousness with which these calls were made. Craig Dahl literally laid a hand on a receiver at the 5-yard limit, not impeding his route or forcibly contacting him in any way, and he still got a flag for it—leading former Dallas quarterback and admitted Cowboys homer Troy Aikman to comment, “Well the league office isn’t going to be happy about that one.” Jimmy Ward’s penalty was equally marginal, though given the speed of the play and the fact that it was on a pass actually intended for the receiver targeted, it’s slightly more excusable.)

We could have been much more impressive in this game, especially in the trenches. Colin Kaepernick was pressured too often, Frank Gore was met by unblocked defenders at the line of scrimmage too often, and Demarco Murray was getting into the second level of our defense, far, far, far too often.

Those are things I think will be fixed. Our top three defensive linemen barely played in the preseason, and I’m sure there was a bit of rust. Ian Williams hasn’t played in a real game in one year. Ray McDonald has a lot on his mind right now (let’s not go there for now, mmmkay?). The Cowboys also probably boast the best offensive line of any team we will play this season, so it was a tough task to begin with.

We were without the entire starting right side of our offensive line. Getting Alex Boone and Anthony Davis back into the lineup immediately inserts two more Pro Bowl players into the unit. The offensive line is assured to improve fairly dramatically, and soon, when those guys are back on the field.

Jim Harbaugh, Vic Fangio and Greg Roman are not going to accept the kind of performance we displayed in the trenches again. Just won’t happen. So we’ll get better there, I’m confident in that.

In all other facets of the game we looked great.

The secondary played extremely well, and that was without our top two cornerbacks playing for the vast majority of the game. Eric Reid is going to vie for an All-Pro spot this season. Antoine Bethea absolutely rocked Dez Bryant on a completely legal hit, and he was sound in coverage all day. Perrish Cox is an incredibly underrated football player. Not saying he’s a star, but a guy that versatile and that quality should not be getting cut, and he was released by two different teams during the course of last season (one of them being the 49ers, who were lucky to get him back).

from 49ers.com

Carlos Hyde is continuing to make general managers around the league sick for passing on him (56 TIMES! 56 PLAYERS WERE DRAFTED BEFORE THIS GUY! WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON!), especially Ruston Webster and Mike Brown. It’s always fun watching a young guy come into the league and know with complete certainty that he is going to be a star, especially when said guy is drafted by the 49ers. It was almost a given he would come in immediately and run the ball hard, but his vision, balance and quick feet continue to amaze me, and even more surprising, he was solid as a rock in pass protection.

I’ve saved the passing game for last, because I really want to gush about Colin Kaepernick. There has been more idiocy, negative myth and bullshit around him than any other quarterback in recent memory (Johnny Manziel included). They say he can’t make reads or throw accurately. They say he can’t manage a game or make the right decisions.

Do you know what I saw— granted this was against a terrible defense—from Kaepernick all game? I saw a quarterback going through his progressions and making all the right reads. I saw a quarterback decisively firing passes into tight windows for third down conversions. I saw a guy maneuvering inside the pocket and courageously taking big hits to wait for receivers to gain separation and find throwing lanes. I saw a quarterback with leadership in the huddle, laser-eyed focus, complete control at the line of scrimmage, and pin-point execution after the snap of the ball.

And I saw a guy who can easily burst out the pocket to elude rushing defenders and with a flick of his wrist THROW ABSOLUTE LASERS. Colin Kaepernick throws absolute lasers.

This guy throws them

To quote coach, “I mean, in my estimation there’s only two people that could make those two plays [the 37-yard completion to Boldin and 29-yard TD to Davis on the opening drive], one is Colin Kaepernick and the other has an ‘S’ on his chest.”

To put it into glorified terms: I saw a guy worthy of playing quarterback in the red and gold, and as you—my fellow faithful—know, that’s a higher standard than any other team can lay claim to.

In Kaep I trust.

Review: 49ers-Ravens Preseason Week One

It’s the Preseason. I don’t want to stage the latest drama in Overreaction Theater. I do want to go through some takeaways I had from Thursday’s (or, if you’re living in South Korea, Friday morning’s) dress rehearsal.

The Bad

from 49ers.com

Mike Purcell is not an NFL caliber defensive lineman. He doesn’t really belong on an NFL roster, especially one as talented as the 49ers. I feel horrible saying things like this, especially based on one game, but last year’s practice squadder—and the only true NT on the team after the injury to Glenn Dorsey—simply doesn’t have the talent required to play the position. There were multiple occasions he was moved off the line of scrimmage by a single Ravens blocker. That cannot happen if we want to have a respectable run defense.

Notice I didn’t say dominant, I said respectable. If we want to have a dominant run defense, we need an above average nose tackle (like Ian Williams or Glenn Dorsey). If we want to be respectable, we need to have a nose tackle that will at least allow the linebackers behind him to make plays. Too often Purcell was pushed back and offensive lineman were able to get into the second level and onto our backers. It’s only the preseason, but 237 yards is 237 yards. That is not 49er football. (Look I get that there were extenuating circumstances with the lack of available bodies along the defensive line, but we were shit against the run from the opening whistle. That can’t possibly be excused by fatigue. It can be explained by not having a nose tackle capable of respectably manning the position).

As for those linebackers…It wasn’t horrible, but it wasn’t great. Borland is not ready to start an NFL game, but he’s got a few weeks left to get acclimated and make a late push into the starting lineup. Wilhoite will get better playing behind the first team defensive line and alongside Willis in Week 1 (when I expect him to start), but he didn’t really do anything positive while he was out there. Any linebacker besides Willis or Keuchly is going to be a major step down when replacing NaVorro Bowman, but I was hoping to be pleasantly surprised by the quality of the candidates fighting for the spot. I wasn’t. It went about as mediocrely as I expected. Nothing to panic over, but no reason for optimism either.

Blaine Gabbert is still Blaine Gabbert. Jim Harbaugh may have met his match; someone impervious to his Midas touch. The backup quarterback situation is pretty bad, but I think just about any team in football is screwed without their starting quarterback. If they’re not, then all that means is their starter isn’t very good. No team is winning a Super Bowl this season with a backup at the helm, and all the 49ers (and I) care about is the Super Bowl. To be honest I don’t particularly care who wins the backup job. If they’re playing significant time, we’ve already lost.

The Neutral

 

from 49ers.com

The secondary looked fair. The secondary is tougher to evaluate. They are getting mixed and matched. They are playing vanilla coverages. They rely on the pressure created by the front-7, they’re matched up against guys playing WR that may or may not be NFL caliber. It is what it is. No one really made any splash plays. No one really made any glaring mistakes. The Cook interception was nice, but it was a poor throw. Dontae Johnson had good coverage on a deep ball down the sideline, but it was another poorly thrown pass.

Jimmie Ward gave up a first down conversion to Jacoby Jones on the opening drive while playing in the slot, but it was his first real action, and he played the route too cautiously, shading well to the outside to force Jones back into the middle of the field towards (pretty non-existant) help from the safeties. He made a quick tackle and limited the damage. He’s clearly still getting a feel for how to adjust to the NFL at that position. I thought he was pretty respectable overall though.

I’ve read other writers call out Joe Looney for a poor performance, but I thought it was just neutral. He had some good moments and some bad moments. Most were in between. He looks to be a league average guard. Which is to say that he’s definitely a step backwards from Alex Boone, who I really hope will be suited up and mauling Cowboy defensive lineman come opening weekend.

The Good

from 49ers.com

Staley and Iupati form the best left side of any offensive line in football. They were dominant.

Which helped Carlos Hyde look great, and Hyde was great (as everyone with eyes has remarked). On one particular run up the middle, he showed a little of the vision and wiggle through the hole that has made Frank Gore the legend that he is. It was an extremely encouraging debut.

As it also was for Bruce Ellington. He looks like he belongs and is ready to contribute immediately. I think the Niners have gotten steals at WR in the fourth round of the past two drafts. Ellington is quick, tough and has strong hands. He’s everything you look for in a slot receiver, and he was fantastic on his kick returns too. I loved it.

The other obvious positives were Tank Carradine and Quinton Dial. Both are physically ready for the NFL. They are imposing, intimidating figures on the defensive line. Quinton Dial really is the key to this defense, because he is the only player on our roster capable of providing respectable (or even dominant) play at NT. He’s “too tall” to do it, and he’s much better suited to play end, but if Dial isn’t the NT by season’s start, we better have signed someone or activated Ian Williams. (Has anyone given big Isaac Sopoaga a call?) He looks like the real deal, and I fully expect Tomsula, Fangio and Harbaugh to find a way to get him on the field. As they say, “the best 11 will play.”

My favorite thing to come out of this game: The play calling. We had no delay of games, and things seem to roll smoothly coming out of the huddle and making adjustments pre-snap. That hasn’t always been the case since Harbaugh took over (or for like the last decade really). I thought Roman called some great plays for the first team offense on the opening drive. It was a shame the second teamers (cough, Blaine Gabbert, cough) couldn’t execute a play to save their lives.

The end. Thanks for coming.

An Appetizer: San Francisco 49ers Projected 53-Man Roster

So I still have yet to go waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay back in NFL history to May to analyze the 2014 NFL Draft. I promise I will get to it. No, I'm not promising you, my readers, but myself. I don't expect y'all to care about the Draft anymore. It's over. But I care (I CARE GOD DAMNIT.)

However, sometimes life gets in the way of doing important things like writing about football, and I'm taking in the sights of Incheon and Seoul for the next several days, so I can't break out the main courses just yet. I don't want to leave anyone starving though, so tide yourself over with a nice hors d'oeuvres; the early-in-training-camp-pre-preaseason 53-man roster projection.

from 49ers.com

I see big things for Big Vance this season

OFFENSE (24)

QB (2)

Colin Kaepernick

Blaine Gabbert

RB (4)

Frank Gore

Carlos Hyde

LaMichael James

Marcus Lattimore

FB (1)

Bruce Miller

TE (3)

Vernon Davis

Vance McDonald

Derek Carrier

WR (6)

Michael Crabtree

Anquan Boldin

Stevie Johnson

Brandon Lloyd

Quinton Patton

Bruce Ellington

OL (8)

Joe Staley

Mike Iupati

Daniel Kilgore

Alex Boone*

Anthony Davis

Joe Looney

Marcus Martin

Jonathan Martin

          *Yes, I'm going to assume, for no other reason than optimism, that Alex Boone returns to the team before the season starts. 

from 49ers.com

Tank is ready to do some damage.

DEFENSE (24)

DL (7)

Justin Smith

Glenn Dorsey

Ray McDonald

Tank Carradine

Quinton Dial

Tony Jerrod-Eddie

Demarcus Dobbs

            PUP: Ian Williams

OLB (4)

Ahmad Brooks

Corey Lemonier

Dan Skuta

Aaron Lynch

            SUSP: Aldon Smith

ILB (4)

Patrick Willis

Michael Wilhoite

Chris Borland

Nick Moody

            PUP: Navorro Bowman

CB (5)

Tramaine Brock

Chris Culliver

Chris Cook

Darryl Morris

Dontae Johnson

S (4)

Eric Reid

Antoine Bethea

Jimmie Ward

C.J. Spillman

from 49ers.com

There's Andy, and then there's everybody else.

SPECIALISTS (5)

K: Phil Dawson

P: Andy Lee

LS: Kevin McDermott

ST: Kassim Osgood, Bubba Ventrone

from sfgate.com
Here's to hoping no one steals Acker...

Practice Squad (8)

McLeod Bethel-Thompson (QB)

Jewell Hampton (RB)

Chuck Jacobs (WR)

Asante Cleveland (TE)

Lawrence Okoye (DL)

Shayne Skov (LB)

Kenneth Acker (CB)

James McCray (S)

Back From the Grave

The familiar feeling of staring at a blank page with too much to say and too little time to say it. I've taken a 71 day nap since The Draft began (and then ended). For those of you who don't know, which I'd hazard to guess is zero of you, I've moved to the opposite side of the planet. I am now your friendly neighborhood sports blogger—if that neighborhood is Myeongseo Dong in Changwon, South Korea.

I haven't penned a single word about my thoughts on The Draft, or about the trade for Stevie Johnson, or about Aldon Smith's pending league discipline, the Vernon Davis and Alex Boone holdouts or the grand opening of The Field of Jeans. I haven't even so much as whispered about Colin Kaepernick's brand new mega-deal (or should I say, "could-possibly-end-up-being-mega-deal").

I'll quickly gloss over some of these things now.

from yahoo.com

The new stadium looks great, and talking about it is, to be completely honest, very depressing. I hate every single one of you that will get to be present during its inaugural season. Please don't tell me any details. The players deserved a new stadium and so did the organization. The fans did as well, of course. Well, the fans who weren't illogically and deeply in love with Candlestick. (Oh how I will miss you so...) It is an all too fitting symbol for the rebirth of the franchise and return to glory.

from tddaily.com

The Stevie Johnson trade was vintage Baalke. It was brilliant. It makes a ton of sense and the cost—in terms of draft capital and cap space—was extremely fair. Johnson isn't a burner, but he's the kind of crafty route-runner and physical receiver that Kaepernick likes to throw to. Assuming Vernon is on the field and healthy, we aren't desperate for a deep threat receiver in the top-three of our depth chart. It would be nice, but having a reliable veteran receiver with proven success against Seattle's secondary is much, much nicer. 

from bayareasportsguy.com

Aldon will be suspended, but I doubt it will exceed eight games. I'd hazard a guess at six games. It will likely be somewhere between four and eight unless I'm completely off-base, which I may be. Either way, while no game in the NFL is a gimme (any given Sunday, right?) and it's difficult to handicap the schedule because unexpected teams surprise with quick turnarounds every year, any suspension to Aldon not exceeding eight games isn't a disaster. It's inconvenient, but  it isn't a disaster because he won't miss either game against the Seahawks. The NFL schedule-makers were extremely kind to us in that regard.

UPDATE: With Aldon's sentencing now complete (earlier than expected)—link here—I should revise my expectations for his discipline. No felony convictions and a "jail sentence" of a dozen days of work crew on Mondays (the day off of practice), which conveniently ends right before the season starts, is probably the absolute best case scenario for the 49ers. Aldon won't miss any training camp.

The no felonies is huge. I think it's now impossible for Goodell to justify a suspension longer than eight games, and it'd be surprising to see it surpass six, given that he previously said that Aldon checking into rehab last season would be factored into any disciplinary ruling. I now think a four game suspension the most likely course of action from the league.

from cleveland.com

I expect Boone to hold out well into training camp and possibly into the season. That would be a big blow to a line that has experienced almost unheard of continuity the past few seasons, and which is already looking at the addition of a new center. The interior of the 49er's offensive line has been an area of great strength for us since Harbaugh took over, and necessarily so considering the style of offense we run. Any step back, even a minor one, could have ripple effects on the entire offense. The Boone holdout is no-joke, and it shouldn't be written off as a minor story or easy work around because it's an issue at OG, a position that is generally completely overlooked. 

That said, Harbaugh's mantra is "next man up" and Baalke has done a great job of retooling the depth along the offensive line. I will be unhappy if Joe Looney (or Marcus Martin or Daniel Kilgore) is penciled in as a starter next to the winner of the training camp battle for the center spot, but I won't lose sleep over it (probably).

from gamedayr.com

Kaepernick's contract is a textbook example of a win-win for both sides. The 49ers were able to provide themselves a major out with an inexperienced player at the most important position in sports, and Kaepernick was able to sign his name next to large amounts of yearly salary. Sure the guaranteed money isn't there, but Kaepernick bet on himself. He bet that he will never be expendable and he's willing to put in the work to earn every penny in that contract. He bet on himself that he will be indispensable. And if that turns out to be the case, no one will have a bigger smile than Jed York when he steps into his office to personally sign Kaepernick's game checks. 

Everything I just said has been said at some time before by someone else, but I'd like to take a moment to add a little more detail about the brilliance of this move (for both sides).

For the 49ers, it not only gives them flexibility in the form of an "out," but it does so over the course of a long time, and for little up front cost. All indications are that the salary cap will rise dramatically over the next three to five seasons, potentially upwards of 150 million. In the event that Kaepernick wins a Super Bowl this season and thus guarantees himself another 12 million (and probably, in essence, the rest of his contract witht the 49ers), he will still likely be seen as vastly underpaid in five years. Even further, if Kaepernick only progresses mildly over the next two or three seasons, and doesn't bring the 49ers' the Lombardi Trophy we all so desperately want, his contract is set up in such a way that he immediately becomes the most valuable trade asset in all of football. In this (frankly horrid) scenario where Kaepernick isn't himself the future of the franchise, he may still end up being a key piece to our continued revival, because some team would absolutely part ways with a package of premium picks and/or players to have a (still young) super-athlete with big-game experience and a very manageable contract at the QB position. With this contract the 49ers' not only locked up a potential Super Bowl caliber, All-Pro QB for six years at a very fair price, they also hedged against any risk with the ability to (probably very, very easily) ship him off for draft capital. The things the 49ers do sometimes just aren't fair to the other teams.

And for Kaepernick, he knows that anything other than an immediate plateau in the level of his play or evident regression will mean an income of 20 million dollars a year for the next six years. Sure it's not guaranteed in writing, but given the state of the quarterback market (where less talented, older and less accomplished quarterbacks like Jay Cutler and Tony Romo have gotten more guaranteed money in their contracts) it is guaranteed. At no point should Kaepernick be worried about being straight up cut. Traded maybe, but cut no. Not unless, like I stated earlier, he doesn't show any signs at all of further development or manages to regress. So some team, somewhere is going to be on the hook for the salary he and the 49ers agreed to. Being the confident and savvy guy he is, of course he's willing to make that bet on himself. If he wasn't, he shouldn't be an NFL QB. Not only that, but he endeared himself to 49er fans for showing an eagerness to stay with the team and a willingness to make the contract team friendly. He also sent a message to his ignorant detractors that point to his tattoos and sneaker collection as the means to call him "selfish." I've never heard anyone call Jay Cutler or Tony Romo selfish and those guy'\s absolutely took their organizations to the cleaners when they had a little bit of leverage. Kaep's decision, like the 49ers' was just intelligent, good business. It was refreshing to see. 

I'm not going to get into The Draft now. I'll save that for another article which I'll post before training camp gets fully underway next week. 

Stay tuned for extensive 49ers analysis, general football musings, and some fantasy football stuff.

Cheers. Go Niners. 

An "I Couldn't Help Myself" Mock Draft

Waiting for the draft to start is pure torture, so I went ahead and redid my mock. Just because.

MOCK DRAFT RD. 1

1. Houston Texans – JADEVEON CLOWNEY, DE South Carolina

2. St. Louis Rams – GREG ROBINSON, OT Auburn

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – JOHNNY MANZIEL, QB Texas A&M

4. Cleveland Browns – SAMMY WATKINS, WR Clemson

5. Oakland Raiders – MIKE EVANS, WR Texas A&M

6. Atlanta Falcons – KHALIL MACK, OLB Buffalo

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – AARON DONALD, DT Pittsburgh

8. Minnesota Vikings – BLAKE BORTLES, QB Central Florida

9. Buffalo Bills – JAKE MATTHEWS, Texas A&M

10. Detroit Lions – ANTHONY BARR, OLB UCLA

11. Tennessee Titans – JUSTIN GILBERT, CB Oklahoma St.

12. New York Giants – ZACK MARTIN, OT Notre Dame

13. St. Louis Rams – HA HA CLINTON-DIX, S Alabama

14. Chicago Bears – CALVIN PRYOR, S Louisville

15. Pittsburgh Steelers – TAYLOR LEWAN, OT Michigan

16. Dallas Cowboys – TIMMY JERNIGAN, DT Florida St. 

17. San Francisco 49ers (via BAL) – ODELL BECKHAM JR., WR LSU

18. New York Jets – ERIC EBRON, TE North Carolina

19. Miami Dolphins – RYAN SHAZIER, OLB Ohio St.

20. Arizona Cardinals – BRADLEY ROBY, CB Ohio St.

21.Green Bay – C.J. MOSLEY, ILB Alabama

22. Philadelphia Eagles – KYLE FULLER, CB Virginia

23. Kansas City Chiefs – DARQUEZE DENNARD, CB Michigan St.

24. Cincinnati Bengals – KONY EALY, DE Missouri

25. San Diego Chargers – MARQISE LEE, WR USC

26. Cleveland Browns – TEDDY BRIDGEWATER, QB Louisville

27. St. Louis Rams – DEMARCUS LAWRENCE, OLB/DE Boise St.

28. Carolina Panthers – BRANDIN COOKS, WR Oregon St.

29. New England Patriots – LOUIS NIX III, NT Notre Dame

30. Baltimore Ravens (via SF) – JU’WUAN JAMES, OT Tennessee

31. Denver Broncos – JASON VERRETT, CB TCU

32. Seattle Seahawks – XAVIER SU'A-FILO, OG UCLA

Draft Resources

I am crazy and I like having my rankings in front of me while I watch the draft. These are the things I print out and have in my lap as teams are on the clock. If you want to step into my shoes and see what my draft experience is like here are some things you can print out to help you follow along.

1. A Big Board To Fill In

This will keep your mind on the draft. It's like a game. Take good notes.

2. Positional Rankings

This is good for the mid-rounds when teams will get away from strict best player available drafting to fill needs.

3. The Big Board

The one that rules them all.

Movin' On Up: Potential Draft Day Trades

Mocking the Trade

I’m not going to do this for every team, but seeing that I am a 49ers fan and that the likelihood the 49ers actually draft at pick No. 30 is fairly slim, I’m going to do some mock trades.

First, here is a link to the traditional pick value chart that has been in use for decades. It has a convenient calculator feature to, so you can whittle away precious minutes (or hours) of your life dreaming up new trade scenarios if you’d like.

Second, here is a link to the official 2014 NFL Draft order.

That chart is a good resource, but it’s not the be-all and end-all for draft day trades. A lot of teams use different charts, especially now that the salary structure for draft picks has changed due to the new CBA. In fact, one of the teams that doesn’t use this chart is the 49ers, as TrentBaalke outlines here.

(But you’ll notice he does say that every team at least references the traditional pick value chart. It’s like the Rosetta Stone of pick value charts. Everyone recognizes it.)

I think it’s safe to say that the 49ers’ draft value chart values mid and late-round picks higher than the traditional chart. I have reached this conclusion based on the evidence:

A) Team President and Baalke-sidekick Paraag Marathe is big on new-era metrics and statistical analysis and most “advanced analysis” trade value charts place much more value on mid-round picks than the traditional one (as you can see here).

B) Baalke is notorious for stockpiling picks. He trades away talented players like Cam Johnson for 7^th rounders habitually, and the last two seasons we have been among the top two teams in the number of overall draft picks heading into the draft. He clearly sees value in having picks, probably because he values lower picks more than a typical GM.

C) The Eric Reid trade-up. On the traditional draft value chart the 18^th overall pick is worth 900 points, while the 31^st and 74^th overall picks have a combined worth of 820 points. That 80 point differential is worth a Round 4 pick based on the traditional chart, not something an NFL decision maker is likely to just give up in a trade. However, on the Harvard Chart (provided in point A) the combined value of picks No. 31 and 74 is 324.2, which is actually worth more than the 8^th overall pick.

The 49ers’ draft value chart probably splits the difference between the traditional and the new-age value charts.

I'm definitely not the only person to reach this conclusion. ProFootballTalk beat me to it a few days ago...Even though I wrote this post like a week ago (as you can tell by the lack of inclusion of the Ravens as a potential trade partner, which is like the flavor of the week among beat writers and draftniks alike. No-originality havin' little bitches...).

My tantrum is over and so is my preamble, let’s get to the mock trades!

1) The Monster Trade-Up

I can think of only four prospects the 49ers would consider moving up into the top-12 for; Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Justin Gilbert and Anthony Barr.

Scenario A: 49ers give up Nos. 30, 56, 61 & a 2015 First Round Pick [approx. 500 pts.] for the Raiders’ No. 5 overall selection.

The 49ers select Sammy Watkins.

(traditional value chart: 49ers totals = 1,752, Raiders totals = 1,700)

Scenario B: 49ers give up No. 30, 56, 61 & a 2015 Second Round Pick [approx. 250 pts.] for the Buccaneers’ No. 7 overall selection.

The 49ers select Mike Evans

(traditional value chart: 49ers totals = 1,502, Buccaneers totals = 1,500)

Scenario C: 49ers give up No. 30, 56 & 61 for the Detroit Lions’ No. 10 overall selection.

The 49ers select Justin Gilbert.

OR

The 49ers select Anthony Barr.

(traditional value chart: 49ers totals = 1,252, Lions totals = 1,300)

I personally just don’t see this happening. Maybe if we were the clear cut leader in our division now and into the foreseeable future and we needed to get over the Super Bowl hump, but with the impending battle with the Seahawks (and Cardinals and Rams) for the NFC West now and into the next decade I don’t think we can afford to give up the impact and depth all those top-100 picks would have on the roster for a single player. I’m just not of the opinion that even a player I love like Sammy Watkins is the little boost we need to consistently beat the Seahawks.

2) The Moderate Trade-Up

There is a litany of prospects the 49ers could consider moving up 6-12 picks for. I won’t even name them all. Use your imagination. I’ll provide a couple examples for guys I would like them to trade up for.

Scenario A: The 49ers trade picks Nos. 30 & 77 for the Dolphins’ No. 19 pick.

The 49ers select Marqise Lee.

(traditional value chart: 49ers totals = 825, Dolphins totals = 875)

Scenario B: The 49ers trade Picks Nos. 30 & 94 for the Bengals’ Nos. 24 & 199 picks.

The 49ers select Kyle Fuller.

(traditional value chart: 49ers totals = 744, Bengals totals = 751.8)

These are the two most likely scenarios in my mind. With the Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers and Panthers all needing receivers, and the Cardinals, Eagles, Bengals, Chargers and Saints all looking for cornerbacks, it would make a ton of sense for the 49ers to use some of their draft capital and go and get “their guy” at one of those positions instead of waiting to see who falls in their lap.

I think the Dolphins are a likely trade partner. They are in the range where it wouldn’t be overly costly to trade-up, and we would leap frog most of the major competition for prospects we are likely to target. Plus, the Dolphins could very well be looking to move back. They have multiple holes on the offensive line and deficiencies on both sides of the ball. Moving back to select Joel Bitonio or Xavier Su’a-Filo at pick 30 and adding additional talent in the Third Round would probably be an excellent strategy for them as well.

3) The Trade Down

It’s not likely to happen in my opinion, but if the 49ers can’t find a partner to trade up with and they don’t have a prospect at No. 30 they feel is worth the pick, they could look to trade down and pick up extra picks to have even more flexibility in the middle rounds, or add picks in the 2015 draft.

The Texans, Jaguars, Raiders, Vikings, etc. could be looking to move back up into Round 1 to take a quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater or Jimmy Garoppolo or A.J. McCarron.

Scenario A: The 49ers give up No. 30 for the Raiders’ No. 36 & a 2015 Third Round pick [approx. 100 pts.].

The 49ers select Jordan Matthews.

OR

The 49ers select Jason Verrett.

(traditional value chart: 49ers total = 620, Raiders totals = 640)

Scenario B: The 49ers give up No. 30 for the Vikings’ No. 40 & 96 [from Seahawks].

The 49ers select Davante Adams

OR

The 49ers select Keith McGill.

(traditional value chart: 49ers total = 620, Vikings totals = 616)

There You Have It

A little exercise in draft day trades. We are all smarter now.