Movin' On Up: Potential Draft Day Trades

Mocking the Trade

I’m not going to do this for every team, but seeing that I am a 49ers fan and that the likelihood the 49ers actually draft at pick No. 30 is fairly slim, I’m going to do some mock trades.

First, here is a link to the traditional pick value chart that has been in use for decades. It has a convenient calculator feature to, so you can whittle away precious minutes (or hours) of your life dreaming up new trade scenarios if you’d like.

Second, here is a link to the official 2014 NFL Draft order.

That chart is a good resource, but it’s not the be-all and end-all for draft day trades. A lot of teams use different charts, especially now that the salary structure for draft picks has changed due to the new CBA. In fact, one of the teams that doesn’t use this chart is the 49ers, as TrentBaalke outlines here.

(But you’ll notice he does say that every team at least references the traditional pick value chart. It’s like the Rosetta Stone of pick value charts. Everyone recognizes it.)

I think it’s safe to say that the 49ers’ draft value chart values mid and late-round picks higher than the traditional chart. I have reached this conclusion based on the evidence:

A) Team President and Baalke-sidekick Paraag Marathe is big on new-era metrics and statistical analysis and most “advanced analysis” trade value charts place much more value on mid-round picks than the traditional one (as you can see here).

B) Baalke is notorious for stockpiling picks. He trades away talented players like Cam Johnson for 7^th rounders habitually, and the last two seasons we have been among the top two teams in the number of overall draft picks heading into the draft. He clearly sees value in having picks, probably because he values lower picks more than a typical GM.

C) The Eric Reid trade-up. On the traditional draft value chart the 18^th overall pick is worth 900 points, while the 31^st and 74^th overall picks have a combined worth of 820 points. That 80 point differential is worth a Round 4 pick based on the traditional chart, not something an NFL decision maker is likely to just give up in a trade. However, on the Harvard Chart (provided in point A) the combined value of picks No. 31 and 74 is 324.2, which is actually worth more than the 8^th overall pick.

The 49ers’ draft value chart probably splits the difference between the traditional and the new-age value charts.

I'm definitely not the only person to reach this conclusion. ProFootballTalk beat me to it a few days ago...Even though I wrote this post like a week ago (as you can tell by the lack of inclusion of the Ravens as a potential trade partner, which is like the flavor of the week among beat writers and draftniks alike. No-originality havin' little bitches...).

My tantrum is over and so is my preamble, let’s get to the mock trades!

1) The Monster Trade-Up

I can think of only four prospects the 49ers would consider moving up into the top-12 for; Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Justin Gilbert and Anthony Barr.

Scenario A: 49ers give up Nos. 30, 56, 61 & a 2015 First Round Pick [approx. 500 pts.] for the Raiders’ No. 5 overall selection.

The 49ers select Sammy Watkins.

(traditional value chart: 49ers totals = 1,752, Raiders totals = 1,700)

Scenario B: 49ers give up No. 30, 56, 61 & a 2015 Second Round Pick [approx. 250 pts.] for the Buccaneers’ No. 7 overall selection.

The 49ers select Mike Evans

(traditional value chart: 49ers totals = 1,502, Buccaneers totals = 1,500)

Scenario C: 49ers give up No. 30, 56 & 61 for the Detroit Lions’ No. 10 overall selection.

The 49ers select Justin Gilbert.

OR

The 49ers select Anthony Barr.

(traditional value chart: 49ers totals = 1,252, Lions totals = 1,300)

I personally just don’t see this happening. Maybe if we were the clear cut leader in our division now and into the foreseeable future and we needed to get over the Super Bowl hump, but with the impending battle with the Seahawks (and Cardinals and Rams) for the NFC West now and into the next decade I don’t think we can afford to give up the impact and depth all those top-100 picks would have on the roster for a single player. I’m just not of the opinion that even a player I love like Sammy Watkins is the little boost we need to consistently beat the Seahawks.

2) The Moderate Trade-Up

There is a litany of prospects the 49ers could consider moving up 6-12 picks for. I won’t even name them all. Use your imagination. I’ll provide a couple examples for guys I would like them to trade up for.

Scenario A: The 49ers trade picks Nos. 30 & 77 for the Dolphins’ No. 19 pick.

The 49ers select Marqise Lee.

(traditional value chart: 49ers totals = 825, Dolphins totals = 875)

Scenario B: The 49ers trade Picks Nos. 30 & 94 for the Bengals’ Nos. 24 & 199 picks.

The 49ers select Kyle Fuller.

(traditional value chart: 49ers totals = 744, Bengals totals = 751.8)

These are the two most likely scenarios in my mind. With the Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers and Panthers all needing receivers, and the Cardinals, Eagles, Bengals, Chargers and Saints all looking for cornerbacks, it would make a ton of sense for the 49ers to use some of their draft capital and go and get “their guy” at one of those positions instead of waiting to see who falls in their lap.

I think the Dolphins are a likely trade partner. They are in the range where it wouldn’t be overly costly to trade-up, and we would leap frog most of the major competition for prospects we are likely to target. Plus, the Dolphins could very well be looking to move back. They have multiple holes on the offensive line and deficiencies on both sides of the ball. Moving back to select Joel Bitonio or Xavier Su’a-Filo at pick 30 and adding additional talent in the Third Round would probably be an excellent strategy for them as well.

3) The Trade Down

It’s not likely to happen in my opinion, but if the 49ers can’t find a partner to trade up with and they don’t have a prospect at No. 30 they feel is worth the pick, they could look to trade down and pick up extra picks to have even more flexibility in the middle rounds, or add picks in the 2015 draft.

The Texans, Jaguars, Raiders, Vikings, etc. could be looking to move back up into Round 1 to take a quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater or Jimmy Garoppolo or A.J. McCarron.

Scenario A: The 49ers give up No. 30 for the Raiders’ No. 36 & a 2015 Third Round pick [approx. 100 pts.].

The 49ers select Jordan Matthews.

OR

The 49ers select Jason Verrett.

(traditional value chart: 49ers total = 620, Raiders totals = 640)

Scenario B: The 49ers give up No. 30 for the Vikings’ No. 40 & 96 [from Seahawks].

The 49ers select Davante Adams

OR

The 49ers select Keith McGill.

(traditional value chart: 49ers total = 620, Vikings totals = 616)

There You Have It

A little exercise in draft day trades. We are all smarter now.