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| My Disciples, I give to you ... This Big Board |
We are six days away from the 2014 NFL Draft. After months
of grueling “work” and thousands of words blurted into the abyss of cyberspace
or soaked up by your eyeballs, it is time to finally unveil the holy grail of
pre-draft analysis: The Big Board (insert angelic chorus here).
This is the culmination of doing so much online scouting
that when I open up YouTube it’s nothing but highlight football videos of
various college players from the SEC to Conference USA. When I type in the
letter “T” into my google address bar it doesn’t pull up Twitter, but a
drop-down list of suggestions for “Trent Baalke,” “Teddy Bridgewater,” “Taylor
Lewan,” “Travis Swanson,” “Tyler Larsen” and “T.S. Eliot” (because I do have some other interests).
This is the granddaddy of them all, the alpha and the omega,
the one and only, the pinnacle, the summit, the pot of gold at the end of the
rainbow, the long drink of water at the end of a desert trail.
It’s also fundamentally flawed by its very nature—and not
only because it’s made by a guy that does all his scouting in front of a
keyboard and monitor.
I’ve alluded to this before, but I should also have this
disclaimer immediately preceding the Big Board itself, so here it is: I do not do my scouting with a specific
scheme in mind, but based on the impact I expect the prospect to have in the
NFL. This means that for my Big Board to work teams need to pick players
that fit their schemes, and not play them out of position (thus limiting their
impact).
For example, heading into the 2008 draft Glenn Dorsey was
widely considered the top available defensive tackle prospect, with many
evaluators projecting him as the next great 3-technique. As the 5th overall selection, he was drafted in line
with these lofty expectations, but put into a system that did not take advantage—at all—of his skills as a penetrating interior pass rusher, and was asked
instead to play the 5-technique in a 3-4, which he was not suited for.
(He was still pretty good at that spot despite the horrendous fit, which just
goes to show that he’s a pretty solid overall football player).
Was Glenn Dorsey worth the 5th overall pick? Yes,
but not if you’re going to play him completely out of position.
Is Jadaveon Clowney worth the 1st overall pick?
Yes, but not if the Texans plan to make him a 5-technique in their 3-4.
Is Kony Ealy worth a top-20 selection? Yes, but probably
only if he will be playing 4-3 defensive end.
Because I have no actual team with no actual scheme to draft
for my big board represents overall value as I see it in the class. But I have
no control over the situation players ultimately end up in, so my board is
fundamentally flawed.
Teams’ boards, while
taking into account overall talent, also largely take into consideration scheme
fit for their particular team (or they should, in theory) and I simply can’t do
that. I can only project what position a player would fit best at, and then
hope that an NFL team makes the same evaluation and plays him at that position.
Anyway, I hope that in three years I can get this board
printed as a plaque to put on the wall of my new office at 4949 Centennial
Blvd, where I will have earned a job as Trent Baalke’s protégée based on his
incredulity than I NAILED the 2014 NFL Draft as an armchair GM…
But more than likely I’ll seem like a genius on about 10% of
these evaluations, a complete idiot on 25% and somewhere in between on the
other 65%.
Which is probably in line with the average NFL GM if we are
being honest. (Ha Ha…)
And here it is brothers and sisters. Go 49ers.
(click to enlarge)
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