Back From the Grave

The familiar feeling of staring at a blank page with too much to say and too little time to say it. I've taken a 71 day nap since The Draft began (and then ended). For those of you who don't know, which I'd hazard to guess is zero of you, I've moved to the opposite side of the planet. I am now your friendly neighborhood sports blogger—if that neighborhood is Myeongseo Dong in Changwon, South Korea.

I haven't penned a single word about my thoughts on The Draft, or about the trade for Stevie Johnson, or about Aldon Smith's pending league discipline, the Vernon Davis and Alex Boone holdouts or the grand opening of The Field of Jeans. I haven't even so much as whispered about Colin Kaepernick's brand new mega-deal (or should I say, "could-possibly-end-up-being-mega-deal").

I'll quickly gloss over some of these things now.

from yahoo.com

The new stadium looks great, and talking about it is, to be completely honest, very depressing. I hate every single one of you that will get to be present during its inaugural season. Please don't tell me any details. The players deserved a new stadium and so did the organization. The fans did as well, of course. Well, the fans who weren't illogically and deeply in love with Candlestick. (Oh how I will miss you so...) It is an all too fitting symbol for the rebirth of the franchise and return to glory.

from tddaily.com

The Stevie Johnson trade was vintage Baalke. It was brilliant. It makes a ton of sense and the cost—in terms of draft capital and cap space—was extremely fair. Johnson isn't a burner, but he's the kind of crafty route-runner and physical receiver that Kaepernick likes to throw to. Assuming Vernon is on the field and healthy, we aren't desperate for a deep threat receiver in the top-three of our depth chart. It would be nice, but having a reliable veteran receiver with proven success against Seattle's secondary is much, much nicer. 

from bayareasportsguy.com

Aldon will be suspended, but I doubt it will exceed eight games. I'd hazard a guess at six games. It will likely be somewhere between four and eight unless I'm completely off-base, which I may be. Either way, while no game in the NFL is a gimme (any given Sunday, right?) and it's difficult to handicap the schedule because unexpected teams surprise with quick turnarounds every year, any suspension to Aldon not exceeding eight games isn't a disaster. It's inconvenient, but  it isn't a disaster because he won't miss either game against the Seahawks. The NFL schedule-makers were extremely kind to us in that regard.

UPDATE: With Aldon's sentencing now complete (earlier than expected)—link here—I should revise my expectations for his discipline. No felony convictions and a "jail sentence" of a dozen days of work crew on Mondays (the day off of practice), which conveniently ends right before the season starts, is probably the absolute best case scenario for the 49ers. Aldon won't miss any training camp.

The no felonies is huge. I think it's now impossible for Goodell to justify a suspension longer than eight games, and it'd be surprising to see it surpass six, given that he previously said that Aldon checking into rehab last season would be factored into any disciplinary ruling. I now think a four game suspension the most likely course of action from the league.

from cleveland.com

I expect Boone to hold out well into training camp and possibly into the season. That would be a big blow to a line that has experienced almost unheard of continuity the past few seasons, and which is already looking at the addition of a new center. The interior of the 49er's offensive line has been an area of great strength for us since Harbaugh took over, and necessarily so considering the style of offense we run. Any step back, even a minor one, could have ripple effects on the entire offense. The Boone holdout is no-joke, and it shouldn't be written off as a minor story or easy work around because it's an issue at OG, a position that is generally completely overlooked. 

That said, Harbaugh's mantra is "next man up" and Baalke has done a great job of retooling the depth along the offensive line. I will be unhappy if Joe Looney (or Marcus Martin or Daniel Kilgore) is penciled in as a starter next to the winner of the training camp battle for the center spot, but I won't lose sleep over it (probably).

from gamedayr.com

Kaepernick's contract is a textbook example of a win-win for both sides. The 49ers were able to provide themselves a major out with an inexperienced player at the most important position in sports, and Kaepernick was able to sign his name next to large amounts of yearly salary. Sure the guaranteed money isn't there, but Kaepernick bet on himself. He bet that he will never be expendable and he's willing to put in the work to earn every penny in that contract. He bet on himself that he will be indispensable. And if that turns out to be the case, no one will have a bigger smile than Jed York when he steps into his office to personally sign Kaepernick's game checks. 

Everything I just said has been said at some time before by someone else, but I'd like to take a moment to add a little more detail about the brilliance of this move (for both sides).

For the 49ers, it not only gives them flexibility in the form of an "out," but it does so over the course of a long time, and for little up front cost. All indications are that the salary cap will rise dramatically over the next three to five seasons, potentially upwards of 150 million. In the event that Kaepernick wins a Super Bowl this season and thus guarantees himself another 12 million (and probably, in essence, the rest of his contract witht the 49ers), he will still likely be seen as vastly underpaid in five years. Even further, if Kaepernick only progresses mildly over the next two or three seasons, and doesn't bring the 49ers' the Lombardi Trophy we all so desperately want, his contract is set up in such a way that he immediately becomes the most valuable trade asset in all of football. In this (frankly horrid) scenario where Kaepernick isn't himself the future of the franchise, he may still end up being a key piece to our continued revival, because some team would absolutely part ways with a package of premium picks and/or players to have a (still young) super-athlete with big-game experience and a very manageable contract at the QB position. With this contract the 49ers' not only locked up a potential Super Bowl caliber, All-Pro QB for six years at a very fair price, they also hedged against any risk with the ability to (probably very, very easily) ship him off for draft capital. The things the 49ers do sometimes just aren't fair to the other teams.

And for Kaepernick, he knows that anything other than an immediate plateau in the level of his play or evident regression will mean an income of 20 million dollars a year for the next six years. Sure it's not guaranteed in writing, but given the state of the quarterback market (where less talented, older and less accomplished quarterbacks like Jay Cutler and Tony Romo have gotten more guaranteed money in their contracts) it is guaranteed. At no point should Kaepernick be worried about being straight up cut. Traded maybe, but cut no. Not unless, like I stated earlier, he doesn't show any signs at all of further development or manages to regress. So some team, somewhere is going to be on the hook for the salary he and the 49ers agreed to. Being the confident and savvy guy he is, of course he's willing to make that bet on himself. If he wasn't, he shouldn't be an NFL QB. Not only that, but he endeared himself to 49er fans for showing an eagerness to stay with the team and a willingness to make the contract team friendly. He also sent a message to his ignorant detractors that point to his tattoos and sneaker collection as the means to call him "selfish." I've never heard anyone call Jay Cutler or Tony Romo selfish and those guy'\s absolutely took their organizations to the cleaners when they had a little bit of leverage. Kaep's decision, like the 49ers' was just intelligent, good business. It was refreshing to see. 

I'm not going to get into The Draft now. I'll save that for another article which I'll post before training camp gets fully underway next week. 

Stay tuned for extensive 49ers analysis, general football musings, and some fantasy football stuff.

Cheers. Go Niners.