Draft Resources

I am crazy and I like having my rankings in front of me while I watch the draft. These are the things I print out and have in my lap as teams are on the clock. If you want to step into my shoes and see what my draft experience is like here are some things you can print out to help you follow along.

1. A Big Board To Fill In

This will keep your mind on the draft. It's like a game. Take good notes.

2. Positional Rankings

This is good for the mid-rounds when teams will get away from strict best player available drafting to fill needs.

3. The Big Board

The one that rules them all.

Safeties: The 2014 Draft Class Examined

So as I mentioned in one of my previous posts, I have a difficult time scouting safeties. I personally think evaluating safeties is the most difficult of all the position groups for armchair GMs. You really need access to “All-22” game tape to get an accurate read on a safety, because so much of their play happens in space and “against air” and not in a box against other players.

Great safeties need to have exceptional vision and instincts. They need to take exact angles to the ball and they need to understand coverage schemes. Those skills are almost impossible to pick up on by simply watching highlights or even watching a full game from the typical T.V. broadcast angle.

So all I can really do is look at the Combine measurables, read up on “experts” evaluations, and use whatever gut feeling I have about the prospect from whatever film I have seen of them.

With that in mind, here are my impeccable safety evaluations.

from tuscaloosanews.com

1. HaHa Clinton-Dix, Alabama (6’1”, 208 lbs.)

Hasean “HaHa” Clinton-Dix is a fairly prototypical “free safety” in terms of build and skill. He’s a bit lean for the position, but he makes up for that with above average length and range. He’s sort of built for today’s NFL. He’s not a slobberknocker style of safety who is going to have tight ends fearful of going across the middle, but he has good instincts to be at the right place at the right time and make pass-break ups.

He is likely a Day 1 starter and has pro-bowl potential, but I don’t really see him as a game-changing player. He looks like he will be an above-average, steady starter for a long time.

There’s a very, very slim chance that he’ll sneak into the top-10 somehow, but he is probably looking at being drafted between No. 13 and No. 25. He was No. 12 on my first pseudo-big-board but he will be lower on my complete and official big board.

from sportsweekly.qwriting.qc.cuny.edu

2. Calvin Pryor, Louisville (5’11”, 207 lbs.)

Pryor is a more physically intimidating safety than HaHa. That’s apparent. Pryor is an aggressive run defender and a big hitter. He’s also got good speed and range for a safety. He’s as aggressive in the pass game as he is against the run. He plays with speed, urgency and sometimes a bit out of control which leads to some mental mistakes.

Pryor is fairly close to HaHa as a prospect. I give HaHa the nod because from what tape I have seen suggests he has better instincts than Pryor and is more of an asset in the pass game.

Pryor has pretty much the exact same draft range as HaHa. Some teams will value one more than the other, but both are cemented as top-25 picks.

from tallahasse.com

3. Lamarcus Joyner, Florida St. (5’8”, 184 lbs.)

I don’t know where else to put Joyner. He isn’t really a safety. He also isn’t really a cornerback. He is a defensive back. He’ll have to be moved around the defense to mask his size deficiency, but he can play all three downs and be an impact player from Day 1. He’s a great short-area athlete so he should be one of the top nickelbacks to come out of this class. He’s fearless as a hitter and has incredible instincts. He will be drafted later than he should because of his size, but Joyner is a stud that some lucky team will swoop up.

Joyner should be drafted between picks Nos. 20-30, but he’ll likely last until Round 2.

from fansided.com

4. Deone Bucannon, Washington St. (6’1”, 211 lbs.)

Deone Bucannon is the most physically imposing of all the safeties in this class. He’s got the ideal size for the position, and was among the fastest safeties at the Combine, running a 4.49 official forty-time. He’s ideally suited athletically to play the position. He’s this low on my list because he has pretty terrible form when tackling, plays without discipline and I question his instincts in general. With the length and speed he has he should have been more effective in coverage than he was.

With proper coaching Bucannon can become a hard-hitting center field safety at the next level, but he’s much more of a developmental prospect than the previous three.

He may end up sneaking into the back end of Round 1, but he’s most likely coming off the board between picks Nos. 33-50.

from bleacherreport.com

5. Terrence Brooks, Florida St. (5’11”, 198 lbs.)

Brooks is a bit lean for the position, and he’s not a great tackler, but he does have good speed and coverage skills for the position. In today’s NFL those are valuable skills for any defensive back, so he gets a little push up my board.

He’s also a very good athlete, running a 4.42 and jumping 38 inches in the vertical. He is fluid and may even have the ability to function as a cornerback at the next level. His versatility is a real plus.

Brooks is a Day 2 pick, probably coming off the board between Nos. 40-80.

That’s it for my positional lead up stuff. Next I’ll put out a mock draft, and updated positional rankings, and my top-100 big board. Stay tuned.

Pass Rushers, Part Two: The 2014 Draft Class Examined

As this little draft analysis project moves forward in time it is evolving, changing in scope and focus. I’ve finished two major position groups and I am halfway (about to be completely) through a third . The draft is less than three weeks away. There is absolutely no chance I’m getting to all the position groups, much less putting together a worthwhile Big Board and mock draft—which is the fun part right? So it’s time for the next step in evolution; rushing through the position groups the Niners are likely to target in the early rounds, then moving on to different stuff. Sorry fans of other teams, hopefully there’s some overlap, but if you’re team is looking for interior defensive lineman and offensive tackles…welp, read what I write first and foremost, then go somewhere else.

I’m even changing direction on part two of my pass rusher evaluations. Part One was the top five pass rushers regardless of scheme. Part Two will be the next best pass rushers that I think fit the 49ers specifically, and guys I think we may target in the first three rounds.

from ninerfans.com

6. Demarcus Lawrence, Boise St. (6’3”, 251 lbs.)

I know the 49ers brought in Lawrence for a pre-draft visit and have shown interest in him. He’s projected as a late first to second round pick. He legitimately compares—in my eyes—to Corey Lemonier, though Lawrence may have a bit more hip fluidity which would make the transition to 3-4 linebacker easier, especially the coverage aspects. As pure pass rushers though they seem to be very similar. He has the uncannily long arms Trent Baalke covets.

Lawrence played mostly as a 4-3 end at Boise, but at only 251 pounds he’ll likely need to make the transition to 3-4 linebacker at the next level, or put on weight, or play in the “Leo” role that the Seahawks and Jaguars use.

Lawrence is kind of a jack of all trades and master of none type of player. He’s athletic without being a rare athlete, he’s big without being imposing, he’s fast without being blinding. He doesn’t have many rare qualities except for the rare quality of being fairly well rounded. He has good size, good fluidity, good strength, good speed, good quickness, good development as a rusher in terms of moves and countermoves, and good college production.

His biggest issue is probably functional strength at the point of attack. He can get washed out of plays by guys with superior strength and hand placement, and he struggles against double teams. He also lacks the straight line speed to be an excellent “run and chase” sack artist, which is a standard of the 3-4 rush linebacker.

Overall Lawrence projects to be a starting caliber 3-4 OLB capable of manning either side of the defense in that scheme, with the upside to be a 10+ sack a year guy. He does not really project as a dominant or game changing pass rusher.

He will have a chance at going as early as No. 25 to the Chargers, but he will probably be taken somewhere in the first half of the second round. The 49ers could look to him at No. 30 as a potential “replacement” for Aldon Smith, and the Seahawks could look to him at No. 32 as a potential Leo replacement for Chris Clemons.

from blacksportsonline.com

7. Dee Ford, Auburn (6’2”, 252 lbs.)

Dee Ford can pretty much be summed up in the first paragraph. He is an undersized speed rusher. He has a variety of speed moves; burst and bend, spin, etc. He has very little in the way of a bull rush, and can’t convert speed to power. You can go on any draft website and read this, and you can watch any Auburn game and see this.

He will be a terror against lead footed tackles, and he will be largely mitigated by athletic tackles with long arms and good footwork. He doesn’t have the strength or length to play 4-3 end at the NFL level, especially because he lacks the strength to anchor in the run game.

He projects as a 3-4 backer only in size and pass rush ability. He actually didn’t demonstrate very good foot quickness or change of direction during his Combine tests or drills, and wasn’t much better at his pro day. Ford’s best position, in my opinion, is SAM linebacker in a 4-3, playing a similar role to Von Miller. He can use his exceptional burst to penetrate the line of scrimmage while allowing his defensive lineman to keep him clean. On passing downs he can line up in a wide-9 set and use his speed to rush the passer much in the way Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney did in Indianapolis for years.

Ford has utility, but he is not well rounded enough to be a first round player in my opinion. He has too many flaws that would need to be covered up to warrant a selection in the first round. He will probably be off the board somewhere between 32 and 50. Because pass rushers are always at a premium I doubt he falls too far into Round 2.

from espn.go.com

8. Marcus Smith, Louisville (6’3”, 251 pounds)

Smith was a 4-3 end at Louisville, but like Lawrence, will probably need to change positions at the next level. Smith has 34 inch arms, so I’m sure Baalke has a half chub every time his name is mentioned in the war room.

Smith has great initial first step quickness, good length, and good athleticism and agility. He has a developed stunt move, which is the primary pass rush move used by 49er defensive lineman in their nickel set. Smith has good body control and adequate strength as well.

Smith doesn’t have great straight line speed, and I question his ability as a “run and chase” pass rusher, which limits some of his pass rush utility from a two-point stance on base downs. He also is fairly raw as a pass rusher, having moved to defensive end only two years ago. He is still a work in progress in a lot of respects, and has a tough time with technique when he doesn’t win right off the snap. He needs to work on hand placement, leverage, countermoves, and anchoring in the run game.

Smith has first round talent and pro potential, but his game is much less well rounded than any of the pass rushers previously mentioned on this blog outside of maybe Kony Ealy, who is a physical specimen. He needs good coaching and time to develop, but he can probably make an early impact as a pass rush specialist.

He will probably be best off as a 3-4 outside linebacker due to his size and the fact that he displays adequate enough body control, balance and change of direction to handle the rigors of playing in space. He will need even more time to develop the necessary skills and techniques to convert to that position however.

If I’m the 49ers I am targeting Smith as my OLB depth and a potential starter down the road. With Vic Fangio coaching OLBs and Jim Tomsula coaching the defensive lineman (which the OLBs become in nickel situations), the 49ers have the coaching staff in place to get the most out of a talent like Marcus Smith.

Smith will be drafted in Rounds 2-3.

from stanforddaily.com

9. Trent Murphy, Stanford (6’5”, 250 lbs.)

I’m losing my energy for these evaluations.

Strengths: Technically sound, high motor, good length, excellent toughness and competitiveness.

Weaknesses: Limited athlete, thin frame, lacking power and strength, limited scheme versatility.

Trent Murphy is a 3-4 linebacker and that’s pretty much it. Doesn’t really have the skills to put his hand in the dirt on a primary basis. Reminds me of Jarret Johnson. He will be a very good two down 3-4 OLB with limited utility as a pure pass rusher.

Projection: Round 2-3.

from pbase.com

10. Jeremiah Attaochu, Georgia Tech (6’3”, 252 lbs.)

Strengths: Speed and athleticism. Good character and work ethic.

Weaknesses: Weakness—must get stronger. Raw and in need of development.

Projection: Rounds 2-3.

Sorry for that weak ending. Not very professional on my part…Then again this isn’t really a “professional” setting due to the fact no one pays me a penny for this shit.

I do what I want. Screw you guys, I’m going home!

Pass Rushers: The 2014 Draft Class Examined

OK this is where it gets interesting. I intended to order this series of positional rankings and evaluations based upon the 49ers’ needs as I saw them. When I started writing these like three weeks ago or whatever (how time flies), I probably would have gone with safety at this point. With Aldon Smith doing whatever the hell he’s doing and probably out for an extended period of time I’m going to jump pass rusher over safety as a top priority.

Here are some reasons for my doing this:

Yes Corey Lemonier was very impressive as a pass rusher in his rookie season. Yes I like him a lot and have very high hopes for him as a player. Yes Dan Skuta and Lemonier did platoon very well together in the five games we played without Aldon Smith…BUT…

1) You can NEVER have enough pass rushers. Baalke knows this and clearly places a premium on pass rushers based on his previous draft-day decisions.

2) We are one more run-in with the law or injury away from having a very mediocre pass rush and linebacking corps. Could you imagine if Ahmad Brooks or Lemonier or even Skuta went down with injury? It’s honestly a horrifying thought.

3) Personally, I not only enjoy evaluating pass rushers more, I’m much better at evaluating pass rushers than safeties. Check my past rankings (B.B. '12 / B.B. '13) and you can see this clear as day. I had Eric Reid ranked well outside the 1^st Round, but I generally nail it on pass rushers. For my own selfish reasons, if for some reason I don’t get around to more evaluations I’d rather have pass rushers on public record than safeties.

4) As this blog isn’t completely meant for 49er fans (though I doubt fans of many other colors read it) I feel it’s appropriate to prioritize the more valuable position. Pass rushers are always at a premium for all 32 teams. Safety is usually a team specific need in the early rounds.

One last thing of note: I’m grouping together the “pass rushers” regardless of their college position or their position of best fit in the NFL. Some guys will fit much better in specific schemes, but when it’s all said and done teams find ways to get pass rushers on their roster and on the field regardless of their scheme fit (Bjoern Werner, widely considered “just” a 4-3 end, was drafted by the 3-4 playing Colts as an OLB). I will make a note of each prospect’s presumed position of best fit and their assumed scheme versatility, but any of these guys can be taken by any team running any defense and I wouldn’t be surprised so neither should you.

from nfl.si.com

1. Jadaveon Clowney, South Carolina (6’5”, 266 lbs.)

But Khalil Mack. But Clowney has work ethic issues. But the hype. But, but, but.

Shut up. Just shut up. You sound stupid.

Jadaveon Clowney is the best pass rusher in this draft. He is the best pass rusher for any scheme and for any position. He can stand up and rush from a two-point stance off the edge. He can put his hand in the dirt and bend the corner on a speed rush from a three-point stance in a wide-9 set. He can line up at the 5-technique and bull rush his way to the QB. He can line up inside in a four man front and shoot the gap to penetrate.

He was built by some fictional gridiron gods to rush the quarterback.

Ideal length? Check. Ideal weight? Check. Ideal speed? Check. Ideal agility? Check. Ideal explosiveness? Check, check, and one more check. Ideal instincts? Check.

Clowney is as quick as Von Miller, as natural as Aldon Smith, as athletic as Julius Peppers, and packs a punch like J.J. Watt.

Clowney is once-in-a-decade. Clowney is the best player in this draft.

He also isn’t that much better than the next best pass rushers, because this draft class is absolutely loaded.

Clowney is a top-3 pick. If he somehow makes it past pick No. 2, there is no chance he makes it past Jacksonville at pick No. 3.

from buffalo.com

2) Khalil Mack, Buffalo (6’3”, 251 lbs.)

Fine, I caved. I’ve had Anthony Barr above Mack for a while, but I’m starting to lose complete faith in Barr after watching more and more of his tape.

Mack, on the other hand, is a steady presence for Buffalo, pretty much dominating the competition every single game, be it against some crap college I barely knew existed or the Ohio St. Buckeyes. The guy is explosive. His first step is second to none. He does remind me of Von Miller in a lot of ways, but I don’t think he’s got quite the same looseness and bend around the edge.

He may be more powerful though, and I do think he is a more complete player than Von Miller, who is pretty much a one-trick pony—although that one trick is extremely useful and important and he does it amazingly well—bust through the line of scrimmage and penetrate.

Mack seems to have more strength to anchor and hold the edge against the run and the instincts and vision to drop into coverage and roam the middle of the field more. Whereas Miller is strictly an edge player, I think you could move Mack all over the formation, even standing him up as an inside backer to blitz the quarterback in more exotic looks.

Mack also has a knack for forcing fumbles, holding the all-time NCAA record in that category. That’s a valuable trait, and one that is probably as instinctual as it is learned.

He is very developed as a pass rusher in terms of technique and variety of moves. Throw on a game and you’ll see him go through the entire book of moves; swim, spin, rip, bull rush, speed to power, bend the edge, loop inside, jab step, etc. The guy knows how to toy with left tackles.

He gets knocked backwards of Clowney for two reasons; his size and his level of competition. 6’3” is adequate for a pass rusher, but not ideal. He may struggle against more rangy and athletic tackles as the next level, not so much as a pass rusher where his explosive first step probably mitigates the few inches he loses to longer players, but in the run game, where he may lose leverage in an anchor position. Mack also played in the MAC (no pun intended), which in no way at all compares to the talent levels and game-in game-out rigors of competing in the SEC.

Mack’s size does somewhat limit his scheme versatility. He can’t rush from a down position in the inside of a four man front. He actually would probably need to bulk up if he were asked to man a 4-3 right end spot primarily. He does not have the bulk to play power end (or left end) in a 4-3. He is probably best suited to being a 3-4 outside linebacker, but he can be moved around the 3-4 at will, and put his hand in the dirt in obvious passing situations.

Mack is a top-8 pick. He will not make it past the Minnesota Vikings. I doubt he makes it out of the top-6.

from bleacherreport.com

3. Anthony Barr, UCLA (6’5”, 255 lbs.)

If you were building a 3-4 OLB you would end up with Anthony Barr. He’s basically the exact same size and build as Aldon Smith. Let’s use Aldon as the baseline for our comparison here.

Aldon played 4-3 DE in college, and actually occasionally lined up inside as well to rush the passer. That background made him a dangerous pass rusher from the day he stepped onto an NFL field. Aldon has superior strength and instincts when it comes to getting to the quarterback.

Barr is a bit more thin framed (just a bit) and considerably less powerful than Aldon Smith. He does, however, mimic Aldon’s insane burst off the edge and his unparalleled ability as a “run and chase” pass rusher—closing speed to sack the quarterback from the blindside before they can even sense the danger coming.

Barr also is a more fluid athlete than Aldon. What he lacks in power he makes up for with absurd agility and looseness for a man of his size. Having played OLB in college Barr already has some background dropping into coverage and even playing in man coverage against tight ends. Is he great at either of these things? Not really.

But Barr is also just a baby when it comes to playing the position. He entered college as a running back, only making the switch to OLB in 2012, where he made an immediate impact. In his first two seasons playing OLB ever, at any level Barr racked up 23.5 sacks and 41.5 tackles for loss. Against the Pac-12. That is crazy good.

Barr projects as the ideal 3-4 OLB, but he can play OLB in a 4-3 in a similar role to Von Miller, and he can even bulk up and be asked to play primarily as a 4-3 right end, though I don’t think that is really all that wise given his skill set.

Given a couple years in NFL weight training to continue to add to his frame and power, plus the necessary development he’ll get both as a pass rusher and in coverage, it’s not hard to see Barr as a perennial all-pro in a 3-4 scheme.

Barr should be picked in the top-10, and he probably will be, but if he’s not he won’t last for much longer. His range is picks 5-20.

from cowboysblog.dallastimes.com

4) Kony Ealy, Missouri (6’4”, 273 lbs.)

There are couple general trends working in Kony Ealy’s favor. First and foremost is that the “raw athlete” pass rusher has grown in popularity over the last few years, and for good reason as they tend to make an immediate and lasting impact. Think of Jason Pierre Paul, Aldon Smith, Chandler Jones and Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah.

Secondly is that he is a Missouri Tiger, and for whatever reason Mizzou just pumps out quality defensive lineman. Justin Smith is a Tiger, Aldon Smith is a Tiger, and last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, Sheldon Richardson, came out of Mizzou as well.

I personally think that Kony Ealy and Ziggy Ansah are extremely comparable prospects, and Ziggy was the fifth overall selection last year. They have practically the exact same body type and athletic prowess. Both are explosive rushers for their size, but both lack the hip fluidity to function primarily as 3-4 OLBs so they are by far and away best suited to play 4-3 end. Ealy has the size to play on either side of the line as a DE, as well as man the middle of a four man front on passing downs.

Ealy’s single weakness—and that’s actually misleading because it’s a weakness that is far ranging—is his development as a football player. He has all the tools, but very few of the tricks. That problem has become increasingly solvable and in a decreasingly short amount of time. Pass rushers are in such high demand that little things like “development” and “football instincts” can largely be ignored in favor of “crazy-ass athleticism and size,” with the feeling being that the former things can be taught. It seems like more often than not nowadays coaches and GMs are right about this.

So, more than any other position (BY FAR), I am willing to overlook development in favor of natural ability and athleticism with pass rushers. Sure, Ealy plays like a Pop Warner kid. His pad level is too high, he is horrible at establishing and maintaining leverage, he has a limited array of pass rush moves, he gets washed out of the play because he uses bad technique and doesn’t anchor with his lower body (trying to outmuscle offensive lineman with nothing but his upper body), he has really bad eye discipline and loses sight of ball carriers and quarterbacks on the move or off play action.

But the guy is 6’4” 274 and moves like someone half his size and plays a position where all those things listed above can be taught relatively quickly to players that are serious about learning and where physical ability trumps taught techniques anyway, so he’ll be drafted in the first round and rightfully so.

In fact, I would draft him in the top-10, definitely top-15, but I suspect his true range is somewhere between picks 15-32.

from thenewsportsguru.com

5) Scott Crichton, Oregon St. (6’3”, 273 lbs.)

Crichton has grown on me somewhat as I’ve done my evaluations, partially because I’m starting to like him as a player more, and partially because I like other pass rushers less and less. Trent Murphy I’m looking at you.

Crichton is by no means a finished or developed product, but he’s not as raw as Barr or Ealy. He has great burst off the snap and he is the most physically developed (in terms of musculature) of all the pass rushers so far listed. At 6’3” 273 Crichton is a powerful player and he uses his strength to his advantage. He is a good tackler and defends the run well.

Crichton’s biggest flaw is his stiffness. He doesn’t consistently display the necessary fluidity to bend the edge. He sometimes looks a little slow and awkward when he attempts pass rush moves that require lateral agility (like a spin move).

He is also somewhat raw as well. He plays with poor pad level fairly often, and he definitely could use refinement with his pass rush moves.

However, Crichton was a very productive pass rusher in a very good conference, so he’s clearly got some sort of blend of talent and development and effort which allows him to get to the quarterback. He is stout and strong at the point of attack and he is a tenacious, high motor defensive end. He defends the run better than any other the other 4-3 ends I have evaluated thus far.

Due to his hip tightness and lack of overall athleticism Crichton is probably limited to teams that run a 4-3, but he does offer the versatility to line up on either side of the line as well as in the middle due to his bulk and wide frame.

Crichton will likely be selected between picks 20-40, and I have him graded as a borderline first rounder. 

Wide Receivers, Part Two: The 2014 Draft Class Examined

No intro here, let's just get down to business.                                                  (... to defeat the Huns!)

from zimbio.com

6. Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt (6’3”, 212 lbs.)

Jordan Matthews is Jerry Rice’s cousin, and he has some pretty impressive records of his own. He’s the SEC’s all-time leading receiver, which is really saying something. Sometimes production like that simply can’t be ignored, especially when it is coming against the best competition in college football. So whatever presumed weaknesses Jordan Matthews has, they might not ever manifest in a way that stops him from producing at the NFL level. Hell, his uncle is the best receiver of all time and I don’t think Jerry was ever really confused as a Bo Jackson-esque all-world athlete.

Jordan Matthews has pretty much the ideal body type to play WR in the NFL. He’s got good height, adequate weight (though his frame is still relatively thin and he could stand to add even more bulk), and great arm length and hand size. He has incredible, strong hands, but he does have his fair share of drops, mostly due to lapses in concentration. He’s the only player of note on the offensive side of the ball for Vanderbilt, so he was pretty much always trying to put the team on his back and was sometimes pressing so hard he let his eyes come off the ball, leading to drops.

He ran well at the Combine, showing he has the speed to play at the next level, but don’t confuse Matthews with a deep threat. He possesses the speed to get behind a cornerback in single coverage, but he’s never going to blow by anyone and catch the ball five yards from the nearest defender. Matthews is a prototypical possession receiver that has a bit more straight line speed than an Anquan Boldin or Mohammed Sanu.

He is a smooth athlete, but he is not sudden or agile. He is not great after the catch, and is limited with the ball in his hands. He will do most of his damage and eat up the most ground before the ball even touches his hands. He does not consistently separate because he lacks first-step explosion and suddenness in and out of his breaks, but he is great at making contested catches, and is a savvy route-runner, so he is open more often than not.

Matthews biggest weakness is his overall athleticism, which is just adequate. It is difficult to project him as ever being a prolific, game-changing receiver that puts an offense on his back the way he was at the collegiate level. He’s just got too many athletic limitations.

His biggest strength however (just like his uncle’s) is his limitless competitiveness and intensity on the field. He is a willing blocker, hard worker, and competes ferociously for the football. Despite his limited athleticism, Matthews will probably be a good to great player at the next level simply based upon his work ethic and intensity. He is an ideal No. 2 receiver to pair with a more athletically gifted wideout that can take pressure off Matthews. He can line up in the slot and win on the outside.

He compares to Reuben Randle, but I expect bigger things from Matthews because he has a better set of hands and a fiery passion for the game. I grade him out as an early second round pick, but his range is anywhere from 25-50.

from utsandiego.com

7. Davante Adams, Fresno St. (6’1”, 212 lbs.)

Davante Adams actually compares in many way to Jordan Matthews. He does not have great speed, but it is adequate enough that he can separate on vertical routes against single coverage. He is much more sudden than Matthews, but is less developed as a route runner. Given his young age and limited experience, it is possible that with proper development Adams could develop into a better route-runner than Matthews because of his added agility. He has similar balance and body control (i.e. amazing).

His hands are incredible. He’s made some insane one-handed grabs. He’s going to be on Sportscenter’s Top 10 more than once before his career is over. He has good arm length and adequate height, so his catching radius is pretty big. He also is a great leaper (39.5 inches in the vertical) so he has the natural frame and athletic ability to go up and get the ball at its highest point.

He compares to Michael Crabtree as a receiver, but lacks Crabtree’s run-after-the-catch abilities and his strength to beat press off the line of scrimmage. Adams should be a good No. 2 possession receiver at the next level with the potential to function as a low-end No. 1.

I have him graded in the early second round, but his range is anywhere from 25-50.

from news.yahoo.com

8. Kelvin Benjamin, Florida St. (6’5”, 240 lbs.)

I honestly don’t know how to grade this kid.

He is one of the most intriguing athletes at any position. There just aren’t many people on earth—much less ones that just caught the game-winning touchdown in the BCS National Championship game—that are 6’5”, 240 lbs with 35 inch arms and hips as fluid as Kelvin Benjamin. It’s easy to fall in love with his potential.

However, he is incredibly raw and while he has pretty good speed (especially for his size), he is not a true burner. I still believe with all my good-sense that he is faster than Mike Evans on a football field, if not in the 40-yard dash. Just watch them play.

There are two comparisons to NFL players I can make, but they are horrible, horrible comparisons, because they suggest something about Benjamin I don’t mean to imply. However, his body type and athletic ability does compare to Jimmy Graham and Calvin Johnson. He is not as fast as Calvin but has a bigger frame, and he is not as tall and big as Jimmy but has much more fluid hips. The reason these are bad comparisons though is that it is so, so rare for guys of his size to reach their potential and really take the NFL by storm. 

There is Jimmy Graham and Calvin Johnson, and pretty much no one else, because the others fall by the wayside. Benjamin has the chance to make that sort of impact at the next level, but the odds of it happening are actually fairly slim if we're being honest.

Benjamin could easily end up being the single best offensive player to come out of this draft, but he could also be a huge bust. In fact, he has bust written all over him; limited playing experience, limited production, limited refinement and fairly advanced age with all those things considered (23).

He is an intensely limited route-runner. He alternately displays great hands on acrobatic catches and poor hands on simple throws (sometimes on consecutive targets). His effort is generally good, but there are times when he seems to be going through the motions and not playing with a full motor. His size should make him an excellent blocker, but his technique is so bad that he is actually one of the worst blocking receivers I’ve seen on tape.

He’s all over the map, but he’s too intriguing not to put in the top-10, and he’s too physically gifted to fall out of the second round.

He should be chosen between picks 35-60, but he’ll probably be swooped up between picks 15-40.

from coloradoan.com

9. Paul Richardson, Colorado (6’0”, 175)

This guy has grown on me during every step of the draft process. Cooks has been getting all the attention as the “next DeSean Jackson,” but if any prospect in this class resembles DJax it is Paul Richardson.

He is the best pure speed receiver in this class and he has all the defining characteristics of your typical deep threat; adequate height, slim frame, quick first step to accelerate off the line of scrimmage and long strides to build up speed down the field, plus those undefinable “second and third gears” to separate from defensive backs at the tail end of a vertical route.

His weaknesses and strengths are obvious. He is fast as shit, but he is small and injury prone. He lacks the build and strength to consistently beat press-man coverage or man the slot consistently. His route tree is probably somewhat limited due to his lack of bulk as well.

Add to his lack of size his inconsistent hands—he is not a natural hands catcher, sometimes trying to trap the ball with his body—and you have a prospect that has some pretty serious flaws as a receiver.

But you can’t teach the kind of game speed Paul Richardson has, and you also can’t find many receivers of his natural ability that are also team captains (this guy is a saint compared to DeSean Jackson). I absolutely LOVE watching Paul Richardson block, because he blocks with tenacity and heart and is not afraid to stick his nose in against guys twice his size to try to free up his teammates, but he is just too small to ever make an impactful block. He never stops trying though. It’s awesome.

Guys like Richardson are few and far between, and if he hits his ceiling he is this year’s DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace, and if he doesn’t he’s an undersized speed receiver that can be used on occasion (like Donnie Avery).

I have him graded as a solid second rounder, somewhere around picks 45-60, but his range is anywhere from 33-100.

from rantsports.com

10. Jarvis Landry, LSU (5’11”, 205 lbs.)

If there’s a guy that deserves the term “possession receiver” more than Jarvis Landry I don’t know who it is. He really does remind me of Anquan Boldin. He’s tough as nails, fearless across the middle, and is probably among the top two or three receivers in the class at making contested catches. I can’t see this guy not finding a niche and succeeding in some capacity at the NFL level. Kelvin Benjamin is the ultimate boom-or-bust receiver, and Landry is his complete opposite. He should be a steady presence wherever he goes.

He is a solid route-runner, fairly good after the catch, and much stronger than his measurables would suggest.

He’s also the most physically limited of all the top receivers in this class. He barely broke an official 4.8 at the Combine. He has no utility as a deep threat, besides the ol' Anquan Boldin streak to back shoulder throw down the sidelines, which yields absolutely zero opportunity for yards after the catch.

He can man the slot due to his superior toughness over the middle, and he has the strength and savvy to win on the outside and create just enough separation to give his quarterback a window to throw into.

I’m a Landry fan, but he has practically no potential to ever be a true No. 1 receiver at the next level, so he really can’t be picked in the first round or valued above guys that do offer that potential. He is a valuable receiver prospect though because he should be a productive player for years to come.

I grade him as a late second rounder, and he will likely be picked between 50-100.

Honorable Mention

11. Cody Latimer, Indiana (6’2”, 215 lbs.)

12. Donte Moncreif, Ole Miss (6’2”, 221 lbs.)

13. Allen Robinson, Penn St. (6’2”, 220 lbs.)

14. Martavis Bryant, Clemson (6’4”, 211 lbs.)

15. Jared Abbrederis , Wisconsin (6’1”, 195 lbs.)

Wide Receivers, Part One: The 2014 Draft Class Examined

The intervening time between these draft-analysis posts are always greater than my hopes and expectations. There’s a good chance that I won’t get to every position group in the next month, but I’m going to try.

Hopefully within the next week I will have finished with corners and wide receivers at least, which are the positions I (and every other person that follows football) expect the 49ers to target in the early rounds, which is kind of the point of this whole top-10 at each position exercise anyway—for 49er fans of course, who I exclusively pander to in this blog.

As with CB, the wide receiver group is deep. In fact, it’s probably the deepest position group in this draft. There are at least four guys I have that grade out as definite first rounders, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see up to six drafted in the first 32 selections. Actually, I wouldn’t be that surprised if there were seven taken in the first 32, but I’d be a little surprised.

from tddaily.com

1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson (6’1”, 211 lbs.)

Like Justin Gilbert, the WR group starts at Sammy Watkins as the clear cut No. 1 prospect, and ends with a lot of argument at Nos. 2-5. Don’t let the Mike Evans fanboys convince you differently. Watkins is in a class of his own, and is one of the elite prospects in a loaded draft. I won’t say he’s “can’t miss,” because that’s just dumb (anyone can bust), but he’s the closest thing you can get to can’t miss at the WR position. He’s pretty much on par with A.J. Green and Julio Jones when they were coming out.

Watkins isn’t overly big, but he’s got good size for a receiver. At 211 lbs. he is solidly built, and while he’s not exactly fearless over the middle, he doesn’t shy away from contact, and I can’t think of a time I’ve seen him “alligator arm” a pass. He has the toughness to play in the slot some, so he is versatile enough to be moved around the formation to create mismatches.

He has great, but not exceptional hands. I’ve seen him drop some catchable balls when he turns his head up-field before he’s secured the catch. Stuff like that is coachable, but it’s also something that generally plagues guys like Watkins, who are so explosive they are always looking to turn every catch into a big play.

OK, so we’ve gotten through the weaknesses. Yep, those are his weaknesses; he’s a mere slightly-above-average height for a WR and not a 6’5” freak, and he has really, really good, but not world-class hands.

What he does have is incredible production at the collegiate level, which he accrued running a complete and varied route tree beginning as a true freshman. He’s a polished route-runner, which is fairly unique when discussing guys with his talent level coming out of college. Normally guys with his speed and explosiveness can run about five routes effectually, but Watkins is pretty damn good at most of the routes he’ll be asked to run in the NFL.

He’s got elite speed. Throw away the Combine numbers of 4.43—which is damn fast, but still not quite indicative of the speed he shows on tape—I’m fairly certain that on gamedays no receiver outside of maybe Paul Richardson or Brandin Cooks will be able to blow the top off a defense like Sammy Watkins. And he’s got 3-4 inches and 20-25 lbs. on those guys. He’s also the best run after the catch receiver in this draft, and I don’t even think it’s close.

You’ll see comparisons to Torrey Smith because they’re both black and have dreads that flow in the wind as they streak downfield on vertical routes, and the comparison isn’t that far off, but I still don’t think it’s exactly indicative of the type of receiver Watkins is and can be. Watkins is a much more polished and complete receiver coming out than Smith was. In fact, I think another apt comparison is to a different player with long dreads, Cordarrelle Patterson. He’s got similar athletic ability and skills to make people look foolish with the ball in his hands, but unlike Patterson who was very, very raw as a receiver, Watkins is not (if I haven’t made that clear).

He will be a top-5 pick.

from sportillustrated.com

2. Marqise Lee, USC (6’0”, 192 lbs.)

Sorry world, I still like Lee better than Mike Evans. You can’t make me change my mind. You can’t make me! Nanananananananana.

Look, I get it; Mike Evans is a mammoth that ran as fast as Lee in the 40-yard dash and made so many highlight plays with Johnny Manziel that ESPN is so used to using footage from Texas A&M that they put a pro day catch in their top-10 plays of the week (y’know, one of those fake scenarios where there is no pass rush or coverage…or any defense AT ALL).

In my mind, Lee is a better football player, and if I’m a GM I’m drafting him before Evans. It’s close, sure, but nothing Evans does in shorts and a form-fitting Under Armour shirt is going to move him ahead of Lee in my positional rankings.

Lee is actually super similar to the guy ranked above him, except he’s slightly worse in pretty much every area…which basically means he’s still really, really good and borderline elite.

He’s a polished route-runner, he has great hands and he’s got speed on tape that shows up way more than Mike Evans (screw the timed numbers). Lee is fast. Really, really, seriously fast. He’s as elusive in the open-field as anyone (including Watkins), but his slighter build and lack of strength makes him worse at breaking tackles and wearing contact, so he’s not quite the complete run-after-catch receiver Watkins is. Lee can play all three receiver positions. He has the straight line speed to keep a safety over the top of him when he lines up outside, and he has the agility and explosion to thrive in the slot, though he may lack the toughness to be a prototypical slot receiver. Still, he has the versatility to be moved around the formation and create opportunities for other players and mismatches for himself.

I’ve brought this up, and I’ll bring this up again: Marqise Lee had three years of great production in a very good conference. In one of those years he outplayed and outranked Robert Woods, a player who performed admirably in his rookie season in Buffalo, despite poor QB play from his fellow rookie E.J. Manuel and some dude named Thad Lewis. Lee is a better prospect than Woods, and I think a lot of teams are probably kicking themselves for letting Woods slide into the second due to injury concerns. (I wish I had put a higher grade on him).

Lee deserves to be a top-15 pick, but I think he’ll ultimately go somewhere between 15-25.

from draftbrowns.com

3. Mike Evans, Texas A&M (6’5”, 231 lbs.)

OK, I really do like Evans, I promise. I think the kid is a beast. I also think he’s one of the most overrated prospects at any position in this draft, and that’s only because he’s being talked of as a blue-chip, top-10 pick and this guy has some serious flaws as a prospect.

Everything that there is to like about Mike Evans you can see by typing in “Mike Evans highlights” on YouTube and looking at his Combine numbers. Not too many guys on earth can run a 4.5 40-yard dash at 6’5” 231 lbs. and then jump 37 inches vertically…AND have 35 1/8 inch arms. He was built by some gridiron god to run the fade route in the redzone. He’s probably going to score a lot of touchdowns.

That said, the 4.53 number is ridiculously misleading. He isn’t that fast on the field. Do you know why he has so many ridiculous contested highlight catches? Because he’s always covered. Why is he always covered? Because he’s sort of slow and not that great at separating. He’s not Calvin Johnson people. Still, this isn’t really too damning of a quality, because even when he’s covered, he’s kind of not covered, because he’s huge and he’s good at making contested catches. This is why people will bring up Alshon Jeffery as a comparison.

But relax. Alshon Jeffery has some of the best hands in the entire league, and he is absolutely incredible at attacking the ball in the air. Jeffery is also much more athletic now that he isn’t fat (he dealt with weight problems in college). Jeffery was undoubtedly a top-10 pick before he got fat and started punching fools in the face in college. Let’s not get it into our heads that he slipped into the second round because people questioned his ability on the field. They questioned his judgment and his eating habits off it. Mike Evans is not up to par with Jeffery as a prospect on the field.

He has tight hips. Whereas Jeffery can sometimes line up in the slot and make do there, Evans will basically be running the same routes from the slot that he runs on the outside, which is to say that he is an outside receiver only. Sure, a team can put him in the slot in the hopes he can do some Jimmy Graham type shit and just run up the seam, but Mike Evans cannot play “slot receiver.” His route tree is limited at best…That pro day everyone is up in arms over and can’t stop talking about? He didn’t even run a post route. And he’s supposed to be the premier vertical receiver in the draft.

Not only is his route tree limited by his lack of development (only two years playing receiver collegiately), it will always be limited due to his physical limitations (i.e. the tightness of his hips and lack of explosive burst off the line and in/out of his breaks). He can obviously still succeed at the next level, but he’s going to fit some systems and with some quarterbacks much better than others. (And actually, a guy like Kaepernick could be the perfect style of QB for Evans, so don’t think I’m going to be upset if the Niners go up into the teens to nab him. I just won’t be happy if we trade away the farm to get into the top-10 for him).

Anyway, I’m shitting on Evans just to do it at this point. It’s not personal to him exactly; I just don’t understand the hype. He’s not so much better than Kelvin Benjamin on tape (in fact I basically see the same player with less pure athleticism); he’s just got better numbers on paper. He’s also really good at out-jumping guys to catch contested passes, which is a valuable asset for sure.

I grade Evans as a guy that should be picked somewhere between pick 15-30, but he’ll probably be selected by in the top half of the first round.

from boltbeat.com

4. Brandin Cooks, Oregon St. (5’10”, 189 lbs.)

I’ve been on the Cooks bandwagon for a while. I love this kid. What is sort of funny is that while I am really high on Cooks, I actually think he might get overdrafted. I thought he’d be a steal for the Niners at pick 30, but with reports that the Jets might take him with the 18^th pick, I’m actually thinking his 40-time actually might have gotten him hyped-up a slight bit too much.

He is not a DeSean Jackson type receiver, despite what other people (and Cooks himself) might suggest. Jackson is an outside deep threat. Cooks doesn’t have the long speed that Jackson does. Or if he does I haven’t seen it on tape besides the time I watched him burn a 4.3 40 at the Combine. That’s not to say he can’t be a deep threat, I just don’t see him as one of the top two or three pure speed receivers in the game (which DJax is).

Cooks is much tougher, has better hands, and the ability to run a more varied route tree though. He’s not a diva and he doesn’t shy away from contact. Cooks is the best slot prospect in this draft, and he has the strength to do some damage as an outside receiver as well. I’ve compared him to Steve Smith and I will continue to do so.

That said, comparisons are tricky, and so that comparison doesn’t really justify a top-20 selection on a 5’10” receiver who isn’t quite as explosive or game-changing as Tavon Austin (who was the top receiver in a receiver weak class last year). I’m usually the first guy to value undersized players more than their general projection if they show toughness and durability, but some things you can’t teach and size is one of them. A 5’10” inch receiver is at a disadvantage in a lot of respects, so it’s hard to label Cooks as an elite prospect.

He had 16 touchdowns in his final collegiate season, so he has displayed the ability to get in the endzone, but it’s hard to project that kind of production to the NFL level given his size. Still, it can’t be ignored, and Cooks is certainly the best redzone target of all the undersized receivers in this class.

I hate saying stuff like this, but if Cooks was two inches taller and twenty pounds heavier he’d be in competition with Lee and Evans to be the second receiver off the board. He isn’t though, so he’ll be drafted somewhere between 18-35. I have him graded between 25-30.

from joe.ie

5. Odell Beckham Jr., LSU (5’11”, 198 lbs.)

Odell Beckham is the last receiver I would take in the first round, but in my mind he doesn’t have a solid first round grade. The board would need to fall in such a way to warrant his selection before the beginning of Day 2.  He’s a receiver I could see the 49ers drafting at pick 30 if the previous four receivers and top four corners have already been selected.

He’s fast enough to provide a vertical element to an offense, but he’s not really a true “deep threat.” He’s not going to blow the top off of defenses and create a ton of space underneath, but he can beat single coverage and get behind a corner. I just don’t know that he has enough speed to consistently command help over the top.

He also doesn’t have the best hands. Not only does he have his share of drops that arise from lack of concentration, he also doesn’t show very strong hands on contested catches, and can be outmuscled by DBs on contested throws. He isn’t incredibly aggressive or competitive in jump-ball/contested-catch situations. Despite the ten pounds he has on Cooks, Cooks is clearly the tougher, more aggressive receiver when you watch the two play.

Beckham is very fluid as a receiver, and he has pretty good size for the position. He can line up outside, and he is pretty well-suited to the rigors of playing the slot. He’s got good agility and change-of-direction skills, and would do well creating separation out of the slot. He’s pretty dangerous with the ball in his hands as well, and shows elusiveness in the open field.

He has experience as a punt returner which is a plus as well.

In my opinion Beckham grades out as a solid third receiver, with the upside to be a good second option if he develops. I do not think he shows the ability to contribute as the primary receiving option on a team.

I grade him as a player that belongs in picks 25-40, and I expect that’s the range he’ll come off the board.