Wide Receivers, Part One: The 2014 Draft Class Examined

The intervening time between these draft-analysis posts are always greater than my hopes and expectations. There’s a good chance that I won’t get to every position group in the next month, but I’m going to try.

Hopefully within the next week I will have finished with corners and wide receivers at least, which are the positions I (and every other person that follows football) expect the 49ers to target in the early rounds, which is kind of the point of this whole top-10 at each position exercise anyway—for 49er fans of course, who I exclusively pander to in this blog.

As with CB, the wide receiver group is deep. In fact, it’s probably the deepest position group in this draft. There are at least four guys I have that grade out as definite first rounders, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see up to six drafted in the first 32 selections. Actually, I wouldn’t be that surprised if there were seven taken in the first 32, but I’d be a little surprised.

from tddaily.com

1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson (6’1”, 211 lbs.)

Like Justin Gilbert, the WR group starts at Sammy Watkins as the clear cut No. 1 prospect, and ends with a lot of argument at Nos. 2-5. Don’t let the Mike Evans fanboys convince you differently. Watkins is in a class of his own, and is one of the elite prospects in a loaded draft. I won’t say he’s “can’t miss,” because that’s just dumb (anyone can bust), but he’s the closest thing you can get to can’t miss at the WR position. He’s pretty much on par with A.J. Green and Julio Jones when they were coming out.

Watkins isn’t overly big, but he’s got good size for a receiver. At 211 lbs. he is solidly built, and while he’s not exactly fearless over the middle, he doesn’t shy away from contact, and I can’t think of a time I’ve seen him “alligator arm” a pass. He has the toughness to play in the slot some, so he is versatile enough to be moved around the formation to create mismatches.

He has great, but not exceptional hands. I’ve seen him drop some catchable balls when he turns his head up-field before he’s secured the catch. Stuff like that is coachable, but it’s also something that generally plagues guys like Watkins, who are so explosive they are always looking to turn every catch into a big play.

OK, so we’ve gotten through the weaknesses. Yep, those are his weaknesses; he’s a mere slightly-above-average height for a WR and not a 6’5” freak, and he has really, really good, but not world-class hands.

What he does have is incredible production at the collegiate level, which he accrued running a complete and varied route tree beginning as a true freshman. He’s a polished route-runner, which is fairly unique when discussing guys with his talent level coming out of college. Normally guys with his speed and explosiveness can run about five routes effectually, but Watkins is pretty damn good at most of the routes he’ll be asked to run in the NFL.

He’s got elite speed. Throw away the Combine numbers of 4.43—which is damn fast, but still not quite indicative of the speed he shows on tape—I’m fairly certain that on gamedays no receiver outside of maybe Paul Richardson or Brandin Cooks will be able to blow the top off a defense like Sammy Watkins. And he’s got 3-4 inches and 20-25 lbs. on those guys. He’s also the best run after the catch receiver in this draft, and I don’t even think it’s close.

You’ll see comparisons to Torrey Smith because they’re both black and have dreads that flow in the wind as they streak downfield on vertical routes, and the comparison isn’t that far off, but I still don’t think it’s exactly indicative of the type of receiver Watkins is and can be. Watkins is a much more polished and complete receiver coming out than Smith was. In fact, I think another apt comparison is to a different player with long dreads, Cordarrelle Patterson. He’s got similar athletic ability and skills to make people look foolish with the ball in his hands, but unlike Patterson who was very, very raw as a receiver, Watkins is not (if I haven’t made that clear).

He will be a top-5 pick.

from sportillustrated.com

2. Marqise Lee, USC (6’0”, 192 lbs.)

Sorry world, I still like Lee better than Mike Evans. You can’t make me change my mind. You can’t make me! Nanananananananana.

Look, I get it; Mike Evans is a mammoth that ran as fast as Lee in the 40-yard dash and made so many highlight plays with Johnny Manziel that ESPN is so used to using footage from Texas A&M that they put a pro day catch in their top-10 plays of the week (y’know, one of those fake scenarios where there is no pass rush or coverage…or any defense AT ALL).

In my mind, Lee is a better football player, and if I’m a GM I’m drafting him before Evans. It’s close, sure, but nothing Evans does in shorts and a form-fitting Under Armour shirt is going to move him ahead of Lee in my positional rankings.

Lee is actually super similar to the guy ranked above him, except he’s slightly worse in pretty much every area…which basically means he’s still really, really good and borderline elite.

He’s a polished route-runner, he has great hands and he’s got speed on tape that shows up way more than Mike Evans (screw the timed numbers). Lee is fast. Really, really, seriously fast. He’s as elusive in the open-field as anyone (including Watkins), but his slighter build and lack of strength makes him worse at breaking tackles and wearing contact, so he’s not quite the complete run-after-catch receiver Watkins is. Lee can play all three receiver positions. He has the straight line speed to keep a safety over the top of him when he lines up outside, and he has the agility and explosion to thrive in the slot, though he may lack the toughness to be a prototypical slot receiver. Still, he has the versatility to be moved around the formation and create opportunities for other players and mismatches for himself.

I’ve brought this up, and I’ll bring this up again: Marqise Lee had three years of great production in a very good conference. In one of those years he outplayed and outranked Robert Woods, a player who performed admirably in his rookie season in Buffalo, despite poor QB play from his fellow rookie E.J. Manuel and some dude named Thad Lewis. Lee is a better prospect than Woods, and I think a lot of teams are probably kicking themselves for letting Woods slide into the second due to injury concerns. (I wish I had put a higher grade on him).

Lee deserves to be a top-15 pick, but I think he’ll ultimately go somewhere between 15-25.

from draftbrowns.com

3. Mike Evans, Texas A&M (6’5”, 231 lbs.)

OK, I really do like Evans, I promise. I think the kid is a beast. I also think he’s one of the most overrated prospects at any position in this draft, and that’s only because he’s being talked of as a blue-chip, top-10 pick and this guy has some serious flaws as a prospect.

Everything that there is to like about Mike Evans you can see by typing in “Mike Evans highlights” on YouTube and looking at his Combine numbers. Not too many guys on earth can run a 4.5 40-yard dash at 6’5” 231 lbs. and then jump 37 inches vertically…AND have 35 1/8 inch arms. He was built by some gridiron god to run the fade route in the redzone. He’s probably going to score a lot of touchdowns.

That said, the 4.53 number is ridiculously misleading. He isn’t that fast on the field. Do you know why he has so many ridiculous contested highlight catches? Because he’s always covered. Why is he always covered? Because he’s sort of slow and not that great at separating. He’s not Calvin Johnson people. Still, this isn’t really too damning of a quality, because even when he’s covered, he’s kind of not covered, because he’s huge and he’s good at making contested catches. This is why people will bring up Alshon Jeffery as a comparison.

But relax. Alshon Jeffery has some of the best hands in the entire league, and he is absolutely incredible at attacking the ball in the air. Jeffery is also much more athletic now that he isn’t fat (he dealt with weight problems in college). Jeffery was undoubtedly a top-10 pick before he got fat and started punching fools in the face in college. Let’s not get it into our heads that he slipped into the second round because people questioned his ability on the field. They questioned his judgment and his eating habits off it. Mike Evans is not up to par with Jeffery as a prospect on the field.

He has tight hips. Whereas Jeffery can sometimes line up in the slot and make do there, Evans will basically be running the same routes from the slot that he runs on the outside, which is to say that he is an outside receiver only. Sure, a team can put him in the slot in the hopes he can do some Jimmy Graham type shit and just run up the seam, but Mike Evans cannot play “slot receiver.” His route tree is limited at best…That pro day everyone is up in arms over and can’t stop talking about? He didn’t even run a post route. And he’s supposed to be the premier vertical receiver in the draft.

Not only is his route tree limited by his lack of development (only two years playing receiver collegiately), it will always be limited due to his physical limitations (i.e. the tightness of his hips and lack of explosive burst off the line and in/out of his breaks). He can obviously still succeed at the next level, but he’s going to fit some systems and with some quarterbacks much better than others. (And actually, a guy like Kaepernick could be the perfect style of QB for Evans, so don’t think I’m going to be upset if the Niners go up into the teens to nab him. I just won’t be happy if we trade away the farm to get into the top-10 for him).

Anyway, I’m shitting on Evans just to do it at this point. It’s not personal to him exactly; I just don’t understand the hype. He’s not so much better than Kelvin Benjamin on tape (in fact I basically see the same player with less pure athleticism); he’s just got better numbers on paper. He’s also really good at out-jumping guys to catch contested passes, which is a valuable asset for sure.

I grade Evans as a guy that should be picked somewhere between pick 15-30, but he’ll probably be selected by in the top half of the first round.

from boltbeat.com

4. Brandin Cooks, Oregon St. (5’10”, 189 lbs.)

I’ve been on the Cooks bandwagon for a while. I love this kid. What is sort of funny is that while I am really high on Cooks, I actually think he might get overdrafted. I thought he’d be a steal for the Niners at pick 30, but with reports that the Jets might take him with the 18^th pick, I’m actually thinking his 40-time actually might have gotten him hyped-up a slight bit too much.

He is not a DeSean Jackson type receiver, despite what other people (and Cooks himself) might suggest. Jackson is an outside deep threat. Cooks doesn’t have the long speed that Jackson does. Or if he does I haven’t seen it on tape besides the time I watched him burn a 4.3 40 at the Combine. That’s not to say he can’t be a deep threat, I just don’t see him as one of the top two or three pure speed receivers in the game (which DJax is).

Cooks is much tougher, has better hands, and the ability to run a more varied route tree though. He’s not a diva and he doesn’t shy away from contact. Cooks is the best slot prospect in this draft, and he has the strength to do some damage as an outside receiver as well. I’ve compared him to Steve Smith and I will continue to do so.

That said, comparisons are tricky, and so that comparison doesn’t really justify a top-20 selection on a 5’10” receiver who isn’t quite as explosive or game-changing as Tavon Austin (who was the top receiver in a receiver weak class last year). I’m usually the first guy to value undersized players more than their general projection if they show toughness and durability, but some things you can’t teach and size is one of them. A 5’10” inch receiver is at a disadvantage in a lot of respects, so it’s hard to label Cooks as an elite prospect.

He had 16 touchdowns in his final collegiate season, so he has displayed the ability to get in the endzone, but it’s hard to project that kind of production to the NFL level given his size. Still, it can’t be ignored, and Cooks is certainly the best redzone target of all the undersized receivers in this class.

I hate saying stuff like this, but if Cooks was two inches taller and twenty pounds heavier he’d be in competition with Lee and Evans to be the second receiver off the board. He isn’t though, so he’ll be drafted somewhere between 18-35. I have him graded between 25-30.

from joe.ie

5. Odell Beckham Jr., LSU (5’11”, 198 lbs.)

Odell Beckham is the last receiver I would take in the first round, but in my mind he doesn’t have a solid first round grade. The board would need to fall in such a way to warrant his selection before the beginning of Day 2.  He’s a receiver I could see the 49ers drafting at pick 30 if the previous four receivers and top four corners have already been selected.

He’s fast enough to provide a vertical element to an offense, but he’s not really a true “deep threat.” He’s not going to blow the top off of defenses and create a ton of space underneath, but he can beat single coverage and get behind a corner. I just don’t know that he has enough speed to consistently command help over the top.

He also doesn’t have the best hands. Not only does he have his share of drops that arise from lack of concentration, he also doesn’t show very strong hands on contested catches, and can be outmuscled by DBs on contested throws. He isn’t incredibly aggressive or competitive in jump-ball/contested-catch situations. Despite the ten pounds he has on Cooks, Cooks is clearly the tougher, more aggressive receiver when you watch the two play.

Beckham is very fluid as a receiver, and he has pretty good size for the position. He can line up outside, and he is pretty well-suited to the rigors of playing the slot. He’s got good agility and change-of-direction skills, and would do well creating separation out of the slot. He’s pretty dangerous with the ball in his hands as well, and shows elusiveness in the open field.

He has experience as a punt returner which is a plus as well.

In my opinion Beckham grades out as a solid third receiver, with the upside to be a good second option if he develops. I do not think he shows the ability to contribute as the primary receiving option on a team.

I grade him as a player that belongs in picks 25-40, and I expect that’s the range he’ll come off the board.