As this little draft analysis project moves forward in time
it is evolving, changing in scope and focus. I’ve finished two major position
groups and I am halfway (about to be completely) through a third . The draft is less than three weeks away.
There is absolutely no chance I’m getting to all the position groups, much less
putting together a worthwhile Big Board and mock draft—which is the fun part
right? So it’s time for the next step in evolution; rushing through the
position groups the Niners are likely to target in the early rounds, then
moving on to different stuff. Sorry fans of other teams, hopefully there’s some
overlap, but if you’re team is looking for interior defensive lineman and
offensive tackles…welp, read what I write first and foremost, then go somewhere
else.
I’m even changing direction on part two of my pass rusher
evaluations. Part One was the top five pass rushers regardless of scheme. Part
Two will be the next best pass rushers that I think fit the 49ers specifically,
and guys I think we may target in the first three rounds.
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| from ninerfans.com |
6. Demarcus Lawrence,
Boise St. (6’3”, 251 lbs.)
I know the 49ers brought in Lawrence for a pre-draft visit and
have shown interest in him. He’s projected as a late first to second round
pick. He legitimately compares—in my eyes—to Corey Lemonier, though Lawrence
may have a bit more hip fluidity which would make the transition to 3-4
linebacker easier, especially the coverage aspects. As pure pass rushers though
they seem to be very similar. He has the uncannily long arms Trent Baalke
covets.
Lawrence played mostly as a 4-3 end at Boise, but at only
251 pounds he’ll likely need to make the transition to 3-4 linebacker at the
next level, or put on weight, or play in the “Leo” role that the Seahawks and
Jaguars use.
Lawrence is kind of a jack of all trades and master of none
type of player. He’s athletic without being a rare athlete, he’s big without
being imposing, he’s fast without being blinding. He doesn’t have many rare
qualities except for the rare quality of being fairly well rounded. He has good
size, good fluidity, good strength, good speed, good quickness, good
development as a rusher in terms of moves and countermoves, and good college
production.
His biggest issue is probably functional strength at the
point of attack. He can get washed out of plays by guys with superior strength
and hand placement, and he struggles against double teams. He also lacks the
straight line speed to be an excellent “run and chase” sack artist, which is a
standard of the 3-4 rush linebacker.
Overall Lawrence projects to be a starting caliber 3-4 OLB
capable of manning either side of the defense in that scheme, with the upside
to be a 10+ sack a year guy. He does not really project as a dominant or game changing
pass rusher.
He will have a chance at going as early as No. 25 to the
Chargers, but he will probably be taken somewhere in the first half of the
second round. The 49ers could look to him at No. 30 as a potential “replacement”
for Aldon Smith, and the Seahawks could look to him at No. 32 as a potential
Leo replacement for Chris Clemons.
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| from blacksportsonline.com |
7. Dee Ford, Auburn (6’2”, 252 lbs.)
Dee Ford can pretty much be summed up in the first
paragraph. He is an undersized speed rusher. He has a variety of speed moves;
burst and bend, spin, etc. He has very little in the way of a bull rush, and
can’t convert speed to power. You can go on any draft website and read this,
and you can watch any Auburn game and see this.
He will be a terror against lead footed tackles, and he will
be largely mitigated by athletic tackles with long arms and good footwork. He
doesn’t have the strength or length to play 4-3 end at the NFL level,
especially because he lacks the strength to anchor in the run game.
He projects as a 3-4 backer only in size and pass rush ability.
He actually didn’t demonstrate very good foot quickness or change of direction
during his Combine tests or drills, and wasn’t much better at his pro day. Ford’s
best position, in my opinion, is SAM linebacker in a 4-3, playing a similar
role to Von Miller. He can use his exceptional burst to penetrate the line of
scrimmage while allowing his defensive lineman to keep him clean. On passing
downs he can line up in a wide-9 set and use his speed to rush the passer much
in the way Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney did in Indianapolis for years.
Ford has utility, but he is not well rounded enough to be a
first round player in my opinion. He has too many flaws that would need to be
covered up to warrant a selection in the first round. He will probably be off
the board somewhere between 32 and 50. Because pass rushers are always at a
premium I doubt he falls too far into Round 2.
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| from espn.go.com |
8. Marcus Smith, Louisville (6’3”, 251 pounds)
Smith was a 4-3 end at Louisville, but like Lawrence, will
probably need to change positions at the next level. Smith has 34 inch arms, so
I’m sure Baalke has a half chub every time his name is mentioned in the war
room.
Smith has great initial first step quickness, good length,
and good athleticism and agility. He has a developed stunt move, which is the
primary pass rush move used by 49er defensive lineman in their nickel set. Smith
has good body control and adequate strength as well.
Smith doesn’t have great straight line speed, and I question
his ability as a “run and chase” pass rusher, which limits some of his pass
rush utility from a two-point stance on base downs. He also is fairly raw as a pass
rusher, having moved to defensive end only two years ago. He is still a work in
progress in a lot of respects, and has a tough time with technique when he
doesn’t win right off the snap. He needs to work on hand placement, leverage,
countermoves, and anchoring in the run game.
Smith has first round talent and pro potential, but his game
is much less well rounded than any of the pass rushers previously mentioned on
this blog outside of maybe Kony Ealy, who is a physical specimen. He needs good
coaching and time to develop, but he can probably make an early impact as a
pass rush specialist.
He will probably be best off as a 3-4 outside linebacker due
to his size and the fact that he displays adequate enough body control, balance
and change of direction to handle the rigors of playing in space. He will need
even more time to develop the necessary skills and techniques to convert to
that position however.
If I’m the 49ers I am targeting Smith as my OLB depth and a
potential starter down the road. With Vic Fangio coaching OLBs and Jim Tomsula
coaching the defensive lineman (which the OLBs become in nickel situations),
the 49ers have the coaching staff in place to get the most out of a talent like
Marcus Smith.
Smith will be drafted in Rounds 2-3.
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| from stanforddaily.com |
9. Trent Murphy, Stanford (6’5”, 250 lbs.)
I’m losing my energy for these evaluations.
Strengths: Technically sound, high motor, good length,
excellent toughness and competitiveness.
Weaknesses: Limited athlete, thin frame, lacking power and
strength, limited scheme versatility.
Trent Murphy is a 3-4 linebacker and that’s pretty much it.
Doesn’t really have the skills to put his hand in the dirt on a primary basis.
Reminds me of Jarret Johnson. He will be a very good two down 3-4 OLB with
limited utility as a pure pass rusher.
Projection: Round 2-3.
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| from pbase.com |
10. Jeremiah Attaochu,
Georgia Tech (6’3”, 252 lbs.)
Strengths: Speed and athleticism. Good character and work
ethic.
Weaknesses: Weakness—must get stronger. Raw and in need of
development.
Projection: Rounds 2-3.
Sorry for that weak ending. Not very professional on my part…Then
again this isn’t really a “professional” setting due to the fact no one pays me
a penny for this shit.
I do what I want. Screw you guys, I’m going home!
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