Week 3 Preview: A September 'Must Win'

Now, for a lesson in Overreaction Theater: This Sunday’s game in Arizona is a must-win contest.

I know it’s early (really early) in the season. Still, I can’t help but think this is a critical moment for this team, and something of a signpost game—which way are things going to go this season?

One of the things that makes the NFL so great, so unlike other major team sports, is the short schedule. There are only 16 games, and all of them matter tremendously. There is no time for early season adjustments. No time really to “figure things out.”

Sure, a team can start off slow and get hot at the end (and can win a Super Bowl doing so—ahem, '12 Ravens and '11 Giants), but in our division and our conference these early struggles can put you way behind the 8-ball.

from sfgate.com

Total, merciless domination. I will be happy with nothing less.

Even at this point in the season there is a MASSIVE difference between 2-1 with the division lead and 1-2 in third place.

Like most, I am guilty of being overly silent regarding the Cardinals. They do not get enough credit as a true threat to the NFC West crown. I’ve always acknowledged them as a good team, but the fact is, for the 49ers the Seahawks are a much greater threat, so the Cardinals tend to get buried in every discussion about the division.

This week, that ceases to be the case. We have no greater enemy than the Arizona Cardinals and our attention should be focused on them alone.

I seriously have the tiniest amount of interest in the Seahawks’ Super Bowl rematch. They’ll handle the Broncos like they handled the Packers. They’re at home and they’re still really, really good (even if they’re nowhere near as good as every so-called “expert” who crowned them repeat champs after Week 1 said they were. How easy it is to forget the Seahawks aren’t the same team away from home.)

We can’t find triumph in the defeat of other teams, we need to just win games. Every damn game. So while it would be a cherry on top of a 49ers' win if the Seahawks lose, I’m not even hoping for it (OK I’m hoping for it a little). They should win that game. We should win our game. We need to.

Look, if we lose this game we aren’t buried. I know this. There’s 13 more chances to prove we are a good team. We have plenty of excuses to point to if we do lose. We are without our top cornerback, our top pass rusher, our top defensive player, our starting nose tackle, our Pro-Bowl right tackle and most likely our all-world tight end.

But we can’t simply tread water either. There needs to be a sense of urgency about this game. Things aren’t going to get a whole lot easier for us after this game, with a date against the Eagles, who have clearly been a tough team to beat through the first two weeks, next on the schedule.

The Niners need to get back the momentum we so embarrassingly flushed away last week; silence the critics and the fans like me who care too much to not panic over a Week 3 game.

How can we do this? I have some ideas.

from ninerfans.com

1) Unleash Kaepernick. This probably sounds counterintuitive, he just had a horrendous game. However, if we’re going to make it through this stretch of games without some of our top talent and a defense that is solid but not up to its normal standards, we’re going to need to place some extra responsibility on Kaep and the offense. Let him loose.

So far the offense has revolved around running plays and long developing intermediate routes. I would like to see Roman dial up a real game-plan built around the passing offense. Easy completions on quick hitting routes, wide receiver screens, etc. Let the passing game open up lanes for Gore and Hyde.

Whenever the 49ers, under Harbaugh, have become a “pass-first” offense, even this passing game is predicated on the threat of the run game. It is typically out of two tight end sets, with heavy play action and roll-out elements. Sure the ball is being thrown more, but it’s under the guise of our power-run game.

Get rid of the disguise and let Kaepernick operate. Let him be a weapon.

from ninersnation.com

2) Speaking of weapons—get Bruce Ellington and Carlos Hyde involved in the passing game. Hyde is a big, powerful back, but all evidence has proved him to be a very good pass-catcher. Swing him out of the backfield and let him get downhill on some smaller cornerbacks and safeties. There are more ways to be physical on offense than simply bashing it down the throat of a defense (which I’m not advocating getting away from completely).

Let Ellington play some receiver and dial up some plays where he is the primary target. Ellington can be more than just a chess piece to get other guys open, or to provide misdirection on run plays. He was a vacuum in the preseason, and he’s tough as nails. Let the kid play some meaningful snaps. The offense needs a spark, and Ellington is pure electricity.

from sfgate.com

3) Blitz. Fangio has always been a reluctant blitzer, but we are playing a team with a fairly brand new offensive line and a backup quarterback. Bruce Arians likes to spread the field and run his backs out of the backfield on routes. That has typically but a lot of pressure on his quarterbacks to either get the ball out quick or stand in the pocket and take a beating. Ask Ben Roethlisberger how painful it is to play in an Arians system.

Playing coverage and rushing four (a so far ineffectual four) is playing into the Cardinals' hands. Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are big, big receivers. They will uncover if given enough time. They are not very sudden, however, and may struggle to separate early in routes on quicker hitting plays.

Drew Stanton has a strong arm, but he’s not particularly accurate. Like the quarterback he backed up for years in Detroit—Matt Stafford—he can throw a beautiful deep ball, or throw a frozen rope, but he also has a penchant for wild interceptions. Pressure him into inaccurate throws and be aggressive in the secondary. We can force turnovers against this offense, we just need to be aggressive, aggressive, aggressive.

I think that’s the big takeaway from last week’s debacle, and just the general state of the NFL: Be aggressive.

For those of you who watched the Falcons and Buccaneers game—that’s what we should have done to the Bears on Sunday night. The beginnings of those two games were not very different at all. The difference was that the Falcons sunk their teeth in and the Niners went limp.

I’m hoping we learned our lesson and we take out every ounce of frustration on the Cardinals this Sunday, because we need to.