Cornerbacks, Part One: The 2014 NFL Draft Class Examined

It’s been a long break but I’m ready to get back to work on this draft analysis stuff. Pro-day results are coming in and while it’s very difficult to get accurate numbers (the scouts there do all the timing by hand and have no incentive to share the results) there are generally reports when a prospect has an outstanding or disappointing workout.

I’m going to break up each position group into a specific post (or two), ordering each position group based on what I consider the 49er’s needs from most needed to least needed. The hope is that if anything changes significantly in the position groups of greatest need between now and then (which I doubt) I can always circle back before the draft and hit on these groups again. I also expect I’ll be doing some more in-depth profiles of specific players in the future too, but who knows, no one pays me for this shit.

The two obvious areas of need for the 49ers, as any casual fan can tell you, are cornerback and wide receiver. You can make an argument for either being the position of greatest need, but I’m of the opinion that it’s cornerback, so I’ll start there. Cornerback is a deep group and as it’s a position of need I’m going to try to do at least 10 of them, so I’m going to break up the position into two posts.

from steelcityblitz.com

1. Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State (6’0”, 202 lbs.)

Justin Gilbert is the best cornerback prospect since Patrick Peterson. In fact, they are actually pretty comparable prospects. Gilbert is the prototype athlete for the position, possessing great size at 6’ ft. and 202 lbs. He’s also among the fastest cornerbacks in the entire class, so unlike many of the other larger corners in the draft his recovery speed isn’t in question. Even more importantly though, Gilbert is incredibly fluid. He has absolutely no problems in his backpedal, his lateral agility or flipping his hips. I haven’t seen much of it on tape, but I expect he could play nickel in the NFL given his fluidity and agility. He does a great job of turning his head to locate the ball, and while he may not look as natural as a wideout catching passes, the seven interceptions he racked up in his final season shows ample evidence he’s a ballhawk. Gilbert is also one of the top punt returners in this class, so a guy that already is worthy of a top-10 selection in a loaded class based on his defensive prowess adds even more value with his ability to make an impact on special teams.

While Gilbert is certainly the top corner in the class, and one of the better corners to come out in a few seasons, he still has his flaws. He’s not a bad tackler, but he’s not a great one (even for a corner) and he doesn’t always show a lot of effort or physicality against the run. While it would be overboard and unfair to call him lazy or unmotivated, he certainly doesn’t always show the competitiveness or aggressiveness you’d like to see in a defender—though this is fairly typical of cover corners. Gilbert plays a lot man coverage, and while he’s pretty great at it, he could stand to get even more aggressive and physical in press-man. I assume that’s something that he’ll be taught at the next level, especially with all the dickriding that’s been going on with Richard Sherman and his borderline assaults within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage. There are some reports that label him as a diva, but that comes with the territory with guys of his talent at the skill positions. I haven’t read anything that questions his work ethic or love of the game, so I’m not overly concerned if he’s going to run his mouth at times. Most great cornerbacks have a little extra swag.

His technique is lacking at times, probably because he’s so athletically gifted and confident that he can play sloppy and still be the best player on the field, but if that isn’t fixed fairly quickly in the NFL I’d fire the coaches, not the GM for picking him.

I also can’t find many instances of him in zone coverage. I assume if I dug around more I could find it, but truth be told I’ve seen enough of his game film to know he has the skills and ability to play in either a zone or man or hybrid scheme and be fine. Maybe he’d be best off going to a team that plays primarily man coverage, but any team with a need for a corner is going to take this guy first, so it’s sort of a moot point.

from michigandaily.com

2. Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State (5’11”, 199 lbs.)

Media types that want to create antagonism or create controversy that doesn’t exist are going to compare Gilbert and Dennard as “opposites:” Gilbert the super-athlete vs. Dennard the blue-collar working man. It ain’t that simple.

Sure, Dennard is lacking slightly what Gilbert boasts most of—pure speed and athletic ability—but it’s not like Dennard is running in the 4.8s either. He’s not an exceptional athlete, but he’s a pretty damn good one, definitely good enough to be a great cover corner in the NFL.

Dennard is a technician at the position, and he plays with fire and tenacity. Dennard is the best tackling and hitting corner in the class. He’s not overly big—though he does possess good size for the position— but you wouldn’t know it when he’s coming up to hit a 230 pound back in run support. He’s a team leader and a hustle athlete. He’s a competitor.

I don’t think I’ve seen Dennard play any zone coverage at all, but he is exceptional in man coverage. He’s the top cornerback in the class at route recognition, and he always turns his head to find the ball. He’s not great at playing the ball in the air, but he attacks it and competes for it which causes a lot of pass break-ups. He would be an ideal fit for a team that utilizes a lot of man concepts, and is probably the draft’s premier press-man corner. Some draft analysts will question his ability to thrive in a zone-heavy scheme, but I think he’d fit in fine on a team that plays a lot of zone too, I just wouldn’t call it an ideal fit.

Dennard is a guy any team would be lucky to have, and a guy any fan will want to root for. His ceiling is pretty damn high and his floor is too. Given the depth of this class and his underwhelming (if not disappointing) athletic performance at the combine, Dennard is probably going to fall a lot farther down the board than he should. I have a top-15 grade on him but I suspect he’ll come off the board somewhere in the early 20s.

from tcu360.com

3. Jason Verrett, TCU (5’9”, 189 lbs.)

Verrett would be a top-20 pick if he measured in an inch taller. The difference between 5’9” and 5’10” is probably going to cost him 5-15 draft slots. While I put pretty significant stock into height and weight, I’m not going to dock Verrett like some others will for being one inch too short to be considered an “outside cornerback.”

Verrett is the best quick twitch athlete at his position, which means he has lightning fast ability to change direction to adjust to routes or the flight of the ball. He’s exceptional at mirroring a receiver’s routes, which makes him very good in off-man coverage. He’s also probably the best corner in the class when it comes to making plays on the ball. He attacks it in the air and displays great hands for a corner. His vision and agility also make him well-suited for zone schemes in the NFL.

Verrett is also a very willing tackler, which is outside the norm for smaller cornerbacks. I can’t say that he’s an outstanding tackler when it comes to form and success rate, but he’s pretty darn good for a corner of any size, and his aggressiveness is top-notch. The fact that he has such extreme change-of-direction skill and the willingness to be physical makes Verrett a prototypical nickelback. The proliferation of three receiver sets in the NFL makes a guy that can blanket a slot receiver nearly as valuable as a guy who can lock down the outside. Verrett Island might exist between the hashes instead of outside of them.

Verrett’s only real negative is his size, which does limit his ability to be successful in schemes that rely a lot on press-man technique. It also limits his potential to be a shutdown corner than can blanket any team’s top receiver. Verrett simply does not have the size to go toe-to-toe with Demaryius Thomas, much less Calvin Johnson. Still, Verrett has elite athleticism for a player of his size (4.38 40 and 39” vertical), so I don’t doubt his ability to be effective on the outside, he’s just not going to be dominant out there.

Verrett has also dealt with injuries in the past (he is currently dealing with a shoulder issue) so his durability is a question mark, especially with his size, even though his toughness isn’t.

Verrett should come off the board in the latter half of the first round, and most likely will, but a fall into the second round isn’t out of the question.

from secondroundstats.com

4. Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech (6’0”, 190 lbs.)

Fuller started gaining some recognition and rising up draft boards following a surprisingly strong show of athleticism at the Combine. He’s a guy that is easy to like, but hard to fall in love with. He doesn’t really display any exceptional or dominant qualities, but he also doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses.

He has slightly above average speed, fairly good change-of-direction ability, and acceptable ball skills. These physical abilities coupled with his field awareness and competitiveness make him an above average cover corner who displays a solid all-around game. He’s a guy with a high floor but limited ceiling.

He could stand to add a little more weight to his frame to get stronger in jam situations and run support. He sometimes get outmuscled for the ball or boxed out on routes by physical receivers, but that isn’t to say he shies away from contact.

I haven’t seen him do it with my own eyes, but he apparently was a special teams stalwart for the Hokies, which is always a big positive. It demonstrates a love for the game and a willingness to do the dirty work to help the team win. It will also ease the transition to the NFL, as he will more than likely be asked to play special teams. He was a team captain and three year starter with no injury history of note.

Fuller is the kind of guy that will probably start a lot of games for an NFL team, and might be skilled enough to serve as a No. 1 corner, but it’s difficult to project him being a perennial pro-bowler or shutdown corner (though it’s certainly not out of the question). I expect he’ll come off the board somewhere between picks 20-40.

from theb1gtime.com

5. Bradley Roby, Ohio State (5’11”, 194 lbs.)

Roby is a volatile prospect. He entered the season as the No. 1 corner in the country by most accounts, but after missing the season opener with a team instituted suspension Roby had a fairly disappointing campaign and fell out of favor with scouts and armchair GMs as Gilbert and Dennard and Verrett solidified themselves with outstanding years.

Then he ran a 4.39 at the Combine and everyone and their mother started talking about Roby as a top cornerback again. Myself included. But unlike some who are willing to move him above Dennard based on that 40-time alone, I am still wary of him as a prospect. He has all the physical tools to be a very good cornerback, but he makes too many mental mistakes on the field to warrant a solid first round grade based on his expected contribution at the NFL level alone. Add in potential character concerns and Roby is pretty hard to peg when it comes to where he deserves to be drafted.

Roby has good-enough size, great speed and quickness, and a physical style of play that most teams will love. He isn’t outstanding at making plays on the ball, but he doesn’t have hands of stone either. Roby is probably second only to Verrett in terms of change-of-direction and foot quickness, so he projects well as a nickelback which significantly increases his value.

My biggest issue with Roby is his head, and I mean this literally and figuratively. Literally, he sometimes is looking in the wrong direction. You can’t cover guys that you aren’t looking at, and you can’t catch or knock away a ball you can’t see. Too often Roby is staring into the backfield or peeking into an adjacent zone and not doing his job in coverage. Equally as often he is in good coverage but fails to locate the ball and allows receptions. Figuratively, I question his “memory.” Corners need to have short-term memories. If you get beat once, you can’t let it affect the next play and get beat again. Roby plays way too hot and cold. When he’s playing well, he’s playing fast and confident. When he’s getting beat, he’s getting destroyed. Jared Abbrederis of Wisconsin caught 13 passes against Roby’s coverage last season. 13! There are also some character concerns as I mentioned earlier, so that doesn’t bode extremely well for him either. He’s also not a great tackler, and has difficulty shedding blocks, though his willingness to be physical is a positive.

With proper motivation and coaching Roby could be a steal because he probably has top-20 talent, but of all the top corners in this class Roby has the biggest bust-factor. He could be picked anywhere in the first two rounds and I wouldn’t really be surprised.

Part 2 soon…

Initial Reaction After the Combine: Reworking the Position Rankings

from usatoday.com

Aaron Donald

If you want to skip the preamble, feel free. Scroll down and the positional rankings are right there obviously. Likewise, here's a link (there will be another) to the positional rankings in a compact form. 

So I've looked at all the heights, weights, arm-lengths, reps, times, jumps, leaps, shuttles and drills that I could get my eyes on. I watched a good portion of the Combine live. I watched some of it recorded. I watched some "highlights" on NFL.com, and some of it I completely missed. I read as many Combine recaps I could.

I watched all the wide receivers and running backs live. I watched all the defensive backs live. I watched some of the offensive lineman and defensive lineman on recording. I watched very little of the linebackers and tight ends, but I watched some. 

So there's your frame of reference for where I'm coming from with these reworkings. Some players completely changed my view of them by displaying way better than expected athleticism, or by underperforming and bringing previously assumed athleticism into question.

One of the guys that wowed me with his athletic performance was Aaron Donald. I thought he was a "high effort" player (which is a distinction usually given to guys who produce at the collegiate level through perseverance and dedication, not through pure talent...Which is by no means a "bad" thing, but it generally lowers their stock as it's perceived there's less improvement for them to make, less "room to grow." Their floor is high but their ceiling is low.) Anyway, when he completely blew the roof off the Combine with 35 reps (of 225 pounds) on the bench press, a 4.68 40 and  a vertical of 32 inches at 285 pounds he went from probable first rounder to definite first rounder who likely cemented a place among the top-20 picks.

from BleacherReport.com

Loucheiz Purifoy

The guy that was probably the most "disappointing" was Loucheiz Purifoy. He was listed at 6' 1" in college, and he was expected to be on of the bigger cornerbacks in this draft. At weigh-in day he measured in at a respectable 5' 11" and 190 pounds, but those were not the expected numbers for a guy that was billed as a physical specimen at the corner position. On tape, especially on special teams, he looks like a real speedster, flying down the field like a missile. He's blocked numerous kicks with what seems to be excellent lower body explosion, getting off the line and beating his blocker in a hurry. That athleticism was not evidenced in a very poor Combine performance that saw him total only 6 reps on the bench (low even for a CB), and a 4.61 in the 40. Perhaps he had an off day. The Combine isn't the only—or best—way to gauge pure athletic ability, but generally great athletes show up with great athletic performances in that environment. 

His Combine performance is more damning than others because he is a junior that chose to forego another year of eligibility, and he did so coming off a poor season playing cornerback. He was not a shutdown corner for Florida this year. His tape is so-so. He was expected to flirt with the first round based on his rare physical ability alone, but it seems as if his physical abilities aren't so rare after all. This is what the Combine helps with. Purifoy needs to run much better at his pro-day to get back among the top cornerbacks in the draft.

Without further ado, I give you my post-Combine positional rankings. I'll likely update these at least once more before the actual draft. I'll have a little bit to say on the other side as well. A more compact and easier to read version can be found HERE as a google doc.

QB

1) Teddy Bridgewater – Louisville

2) Blake Bortles – Central Florida

3) Johnny Manziel – Texas A&M

4) Derek Carr – Fresno St.

5) Jimmy Garoppolo – Eastern Illinois

6) David Fales – San Jose St.

7) A.J. McCarron – Alabama

8) Tahj Boyd – Clemson

9) Zach Mettenberger - LSU

10) Aaron Murray – Georgia

RB

1) Tre Mason – Auburn

2) Carlos Hyde – Ohio St.

3) Bishop Sankey – Washington

4) Tyler Gaffney – Stanford

5) Jeremy Hill – LSU

6) Andre Williams – Boston College

7) Jerick McKinnon – Georgia Southern

8) Dri Archer (RB/WR/KR) – Kent St.

9) Ka’Deem Carey – Arizona

10) Lache Seastrunk – Baylor

WR

1) Sammy Watkins – Clemson

2) Marqise Lee – USC

3) Mike Evans – Texas A&M

4) Brandin Cooks – Oregon St.

5) Odell Beckham Jr. – LSU

6) Kelvin Benjamin – Florida St.

7) Jordan Matthews – Vanderbilt

8) Davante Adams – Florida St.

9) Donte Moncreif – Ole Miss

10) Jarvis Landry – LSU

11) Allen Robinson – Penn St.

12) Jared Abbrederis – Wisconsin

13) Paul Richardson – Colorado St.

14) Martavis Bryant – Clemson

15) Jeff Janis – Saginaw Valley St.

(other notables: Robert Herron, Brandon Coleman, Cody Hoffman, Cody Latimer, Quincy Enunwa )

TE

1) Eric Ebron – North Carolina

2) Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Washington

3) Jace Amaro – Texas Tech

4) Troy Niklas – Notre Dame

5) C.J. Fiedorowicz – Iowa

6) A.C. Leonard – Tennessee St.

7) Crocket Gilmore – Colorado St.

8) Richard Rodgers – California

9) Xavier Grimble – USC

10) Arthur Lynch – Georgia 

OT

1) Greg Robinson – Auburn

2) Jake Matthews – Texas A&M

3) Taylor Lewan – Michigan

4) Cameron Fleming – Stanford

5) Morgan Moses – Virginia

6) Antonio Richardson – Tennessee

7) Cyrus Kouandjio – Alabama

8) Zack Martin – Notre Dame (OG?)

9) Ju’Wuan James – Tennessee

10) James Hurst – North Carolina

OG

1) Xavier Su’a-Filo – UCLA

2) David Yankey – Stanford

3) Cyril Richardson – Baylor

4) Gabe Jackson – Mississippi St.

5) Anthony Steen – Alabama

6) Chris Watt – Notre Dame

7) Dakota Dozier – Furman

8) Brandon  Thomas – Clemson (OT?)

9) Spencer Long – Nebraska

10) Joel Bitonio (OT?)

C

1) Weston Richburg – Colorado St.

2) Travis Swanson – Arkansas

3) Tyler Larsen – Utah St.

4) Marcus Martin – USC

5) Gabe Ikard – Oklahoma

6) Russell Bodine – North Carolina

7) James Stone – Tennessee

8) Bryan Stork – Florida St.

FB

1) Jay Prosch – Auburn

2) Trey Millard – Oklahoma

3) Ryan Hewitt – Stanford

4) J.C. Copeland – LSU

__________________________________________________________________________

DT

1) Timmy Jernigan – Florida St.

2) Aaron Donald – Pittsburgh

3) Louis Nix III – Notre Dame

4) Ra’Shede Hageman – Minnesota

5) Dominique Easley – Florida

6) Anthony Johnson – LSU

7) Caraun Reid – Princeton

8) Will Sutton – Arizona St.

9) George Uko – USC

10) Daquan Jones – Penn St.

DE*

1) Jadaveon Clowney – South Carolina

2) Kony Ealy – Missouri

3) Stephon Tuitt – Notre Dame

4) Scott Crichton – Oregon St.

5) Dee Ford – Auburn (OLB?)

6) Trent Murphy – Stanford (OLB?)

7) Kareem Martin – North Carolina

8) Marcus Smith – Louisville

9) Taylor Hart – Oregon

10) Michael Sam – Missouri

OLB*

1) Anthony Barr – UCLA

2) Khalil Mack – Buffalo

3) Ryan Shazier – Ohio St.

4) Telvin Smith – Florida St.

5) Kyle Van Noy – BYU

6) Carl Bradford – Arizona St.

7) Jeremiah Attaochu – Georgia Tech

8) Adrian Hubbard – Alabama

9) Jackson Jeffcoat – Texas

10) Morgan Breslin – USC

ILB*

1) C.J. Mosley – Alabama

2) Yawin Smallwood – Connecticut

3) Christian Jones – Florida St.

4) Shayne Skov – Stanford

5) Lamin Barrow – LSU

6) Chris Borland – Wisconsin

7) Khairi Fortt – California

8) Kevin Pierre-Louis – Boston College

9) Jordan Zumwalt – UCLA

10) A.J. Tarpley – Stanford

CB

1) Justin Gilbert – Oklahoma St.

2) Darqueze Dennard – Michigan St.

3) Jason Verrett – TCU

4) Kyle Fuller – Virginia Tech

5) Bradley Roby – Ohio St.

6) Marcus Roberson – Florida

7) Pierre Desir – Lindenwood

8) Keith McGill – Utah

9) Philip Gaines – Rice

10) Jaylen Watkins – Florida

11) Stanley Jean-Baptiste – Nebraska

12) Brock Vereen – Minnesota

13) Loucheiz Purifoy – Florida

14) Kendall James – Maine

15) Bashaud Breeland – Clemson

(other notables: E.J. Gaines, Terrence Mitchell, Chris Davis, Ricardo Allen, Andre Hal, Walt Aikens)

FS*

1) HaHa Clinton-Dix – Alabama

2) Calvin Pryor – Louisville

3) Lamarcus Joyner – Florida St. (CB/DB)

4) Terrence Brooks – Florida St.

5) Ed Reynolds – Stanford

6) Dion Bailey – USC

7) Antone Exum – Virginia Tech

SS*

1) Deone Buchannon – Washington St.

2) Craig Loston – LSU

3) Ahmad Dixon – Baylor

4) Tre Boston – North Carolina

5) Jimmy Ward – Northern Illinois

6) Vinnie Sunseri – Alabama

7) Kenny Ladler – Vanderbilt

* So it’s sort of an arbitrary process deciding where to place certain players in position groups. Most 3-4 outside linebackers are going to be converted defensive ends, a good many 3-4 inside linebackers will be converted 4-3 outside linebackers, and plenty of outside linebackers in a 4-3 will be converted 4-3 inside linebackers.

Depending on the team and scheme a lot of these players will be changing positions. On the 49ers Dee Ford would be a 3-4 OLB. On the Seahawks he’s a 4-3 OLB and a 4-3 DE depending on the package. On the Lions he’s probably a situational pass-rushing DE in a 4-3.

My basic rule is that if I think the player can succeed at his “natural” collegiate position in the NFL I’ll leave him in that position group until I start putting the same player in multiple position groups in later rankings. So while I think undersized DEs like Dee Ford and Marcus Smith and Michael Sam can remain DEs in the NFL, I personally think guys like Jeremiah Attaochu, Jackson Jeffcoat and Morgan Breslin cannot.

This is similar for ILB/OLB. A lot of guys that would play OLB in a 4-3 would also fit as an ILB in a 3-4. A lot of guys that play ILB in a 4-3 can only play ILB in a 4-3 (Chris Borland and Max Bullough). Some guys can play any LB position in any scheme (C.J. Mosley is probably the best example of this).

The point is that unless you are making a big board for a specific team (which I’m not really doing) the process becomes even more arbitrary and complex and layered. So if (and it’s likely) Dee Ford is converted to a Von Miller type OLB in a 4-3 or a standing OLB in a 3-4 don’t bitch at me about ranking him as a DE this early in the process.

* I have to make a similar note for safeties. I grouped them together based off their skill-set and the “prototype” for FS and SS. However, most of the safeties can play either position and which position they actually play is totally dependent on the team they’re drafted by. Some teams don’t even differentiate safeties anymore—they’re both just “safeties.” So these are also fairly arbitrary, but there is some method to sorting them as I did. 

from auburntigers.com

Tre Mason

I also want to mention, lastly, that I rearranged the running back position A LOT. I mentioned in my initial rankings that I was very unsure of them. Running backs are semi-easy to evaluate on tape. You can tell when a guy has a good vision, balance and power. It jumps out at you. What is more difficult is to tell how those skills (if they have them) will translate to the much faster, more physical and more disciplined NFL. Basically, are those guys good athletes with rare vision and balance, or are the great athletes with rare vision and balance? Tre Mason was among the latter, Ka'Deem Carey was among the former. I still like Carey as a back in the NFL, but a guy with his athletic limitations (and off the field issues) cannot be considered in the early rounds, not at a position like running back.

Similar changes in each position group were made throughout the process. From here on out I'll likely be writing one post per position group, maybe stopping to write a post about a specific prospect. But for now there won't be large, meta draft posts. It's time to get specific...Until we get to the granddaddy of them all, the REAL Big Board. Save up for lamination costs, because come May I'm going to have something worthy of a trip to FedEx Office, you better believe it. 

Thanks for reading, and thanks to me for writing. Have a good one y'all.

***BTW, I'm on Twitter now. So you can follow me @SpencerHaar. I'll be linking to all these wonderful articles. I'll also be contributing for a sports commentary community called The Sidelines (sidelinesapp.com) in my spare, spare time. I think what I post there will likewise be made easily available on Twitter. So yeah, follow away. Gracias.***

A Mock Draft and a "Big Board" ... Just Because

I did a mock and something along the lines of a big board. Neither of these should be taken too seriously, but it'll be fun to see how drastically they change after the combine, pro days, leaked information and interviews go down—especially the mock draft.

Here is my "big board."

Click to Enlarge. Link Here.

Here is a colorful mock draft that may be impossible to read and/or blinding. I was having fun with Excel.

The "fun" version.

The boring, readable version

I'm looking at the mock now and would like to make some changes, but this was made prior to the Combine and it'll be changed soon enough. I might be the only person on earth that would draft Barr higher than Mack at this point. Mike Mayock has been saying he thinks Mack should be the No. 1 overall pick. So he'll likely leapfrog Barr in future mocks, but I'll have to stew on whether or not he should jump Barr in my rankings.

I should probably at least mention my thinking for the 49ers' picks, which I stretched out into the third round (I am expecting that we will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the third round for the departure of Dashon Goldson, which should be in the vicinity of the 100th pick).

I love Brandin Cooks. I loved him before the Combine, and I love him after. He was a little shorter than I was expecting at just a shade under 5' 10" , but only by about half and inch. I doubt that really hurts him as a prospect.

Besides the height, he had a fantastic Combine. He was fastest among receivers, running in the low 4.3 range (4.33 official, 4.30 unofficial). He had two good numbers in the vertical jump (36 inches) and the broad jump (10 feet) to display his lower body explosion—something that will help him get off the line of scrimmage in a hurry. His arm length at 30 3/4 inches is slightly above the norm for a player of his height, but his hands at 9 5/8 inches are very good size for a player under six feet.

You couple all these measurable with what you see on tape—a dominant receiver in one of the nation's top conferences with unparalleled production—and I think you have a steal at the 30th pick in the draft. As a matter of fact, after the Combine I wouldn't be surprised if Cooks gained steam and ended up closer to the middle of the first round than the end of it. He's tough as nails, and solidly built (as evidenced by his 16 reps on the bench press, very good for an undersized receiver), and simply put he is a play maker. Not quite as explosive and creative in the open field as Tavon Austin, but I think Cooks is a better pure receiver with the ability to make an impact at all three receiver spots.

I go against the grain and double dip at receiver. Part of it is the depth of this class. In most drafts I think Adams is pushed into the first round, or early second (which may well be where he ends up come May), but in this draft I think he'll end up closer to the end of Round 2.

This is all about the future. Boldin, even if resigned, probably won't be around for long, and Crabtree has already proven to be a difficult man to negotiate with.At the end of this season there's a chance both will be off the team, and a receiving corps built on Quinton Patton, Brandin Cooks and Davante Adams is (in theory) not a bad start to replacing those guys (at a much, much cheaper cost). If Adams is available at pick 56 he's likely one of the top players available, and in my quick theoretical mock universe he is the BPA. Plus, with Kaepernick likely to get a mega-extension in the near future, you can't provide him with enough (cheap) weapons.

Ed Reynolds is a guy that was talked about as a late first round pick by some prognosticators, but who has largely been forgotten during the season. He'd be a solid pick at the back end of the second round though. He's not very flashy, but he's a good player that is disciplined and instinctual. He's not the hard hitter that Whitner is, but he'd probably add something in coverage with his added length. He's also much more similar to Eric Reid in body-type and skill-set, so he'd give Vic Fangio a pair of "interchangeable" safeties to gameplan with. He'd also be more prepared than the other top safeties in this class to step in and start alongside Reid in the event we don't resign Whitner because he played under Fangio in his early days at Stanford, and has been playing in a similar system for his entire collegiate career.

I already mentioned my interest in Pierre Desir in a previous post. I would like to get a higher rated CB, maybe someone more ready to contribute right away, but I think between Culliver, Brock and Cox we have three strong—if not elite—corners and we can afford to take BPA as opposed to reaching for the position. Desir would give Ed Donatell (one of the best coaches on our team) a great athlete with ball skills to develop. He's very similar to Chris Culliver in size, and would be a great addition as a 3rd or 4th CB working on the outside (similar to Culliver's contributions in his rookie and sophomore seasons).

Dominique Easley is a Baalke red-shirt special. Like Tank Carradine and Marcus Lattimore before him, Easley is an athletic freak with first-rounder written all over him, but with damaged knee ligaments that will push him into the mid-rounds. With Justin Smith still playing, Tank Carradine developing behind him, Ray McDonald still under contract for a reasonable salary, and Tony Jerrod-Eddie coming along nicely, there isn't any rush to bring in another DE for our 3-4. But with Smith likely gone at year's end (or soon after) and Ray Mac's contract-end looming, it would be fantastic to have another talented body ready to step in and contribute in 2015 and the future.

Tyler Larsen is one of the top center prospects, and I think he's probably the best fit for us—a team that likes physical, nasty, maulers on the offensive line. He'd be able to compete with Daniel Kilgore and Joe Looney for the interior offensive line spots that are going to open up with Goodwin's departure and Mike Iupati's possible departure. 

It was a good Combine. I'll have some reaction and rearrangements coming later in the week. 

Tata for now. 

NFL Draft 2014: An Early Look at the Defense

Jadaveon Clowney, Jason Verret, C.J. Mosley & Anthony Barr

With offense in the books at the NFL Scouting Combine it’s time to turn our attention to the defensive side of the ball. I’ll have some upcoming material regarding the performance of the offensive players, but suffice it to say that there will be some shake-ups in the rankings, but there weren’t too many mind-boggling surprises.

I’d advise everyone—especially those who haven’t yet read it, or those who question my opinions on draft matters—to read through my methodology when it comes to at-home scouting.

Defenders will start the on-field drills tomorrow. All rankings in this post were made prior to official height-weight measurements made at the Combine. There will be minor or drastic changes made to the positional and overall rankings after the Combine’s closure.

Please note that the “defensive big board” below is incomplete and therefore semi-pointless. Only players listed in my positional rankings make an appearance on the big board. The rankings are, for current purposes, much more important.

Repeat: defensive big board (above) = Less important than positional rankings

I’m not going to hit on every individual listed, but here are some pressing thoughts before the defenders hit the turf:

Jadaveon Clowney is the No. 1 prospect until he shows that he isn’t. He’s expected to run somewhere between the 4.5s and the 4.7s. If he scrapes out a 4.9, he’s still at the top of my board. He’s got the tape to show he’s explosive. If he blows up the Combine it merely confirms that explosion for the number-crunchers. 

from sportstalkflorida.com

Kony Ealy

I personally put more stock into the measurables of pass-rushers than any other position. Raw athletes have shown that they can provide immediate impact, and long-term development into dominant edge-rushers, with little technique and superior athletic tools. Aldon Smith, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ezekiel Ansah have proven that in recent drafts.

With that said, I’m particularly high on Kony Ealy. He is more Pierre-Paul and Ansah in that his weight probably limits him to being a 4-3 end, but his Missouri ties and his SEC roots and production mimic Aldon Smith a little more. At this point in the process I have him ranked very highly, and I expect him to generate more buzz after the Combine. I don’t think missing out on Clowney and “settling” for Ealy is a huge problem for teams needing an impact defensive end.

As far as edge rushers go though, he’s only fourth in my rankings. Anthony Barr and Khalil Mack can both bring heat off the edge, and both have all-pro potential. Barr’s length gives him an added bump over Mack in my estimation, and he might have the size to play as a down-lineman as well as an OLB in a 3-4 and a 4-3.

This class is loaded.

from cbssports.com

Louis Nix III

At the top of my defensive tackle rankings right now I have Timmy Jernigan over Louis Nix III, mostly due to Jernigan being the better penetrator of the two. I’ve also watched a good amount of Jernigan and I just think he’s a ball player, so he gets the nod as my top DT. Dominique Easley would give him a run for his money otherwise, but he gets knocked back a couple pegs because he’s coming off an ACL injury.

Stephon Tuitt is one of the more interesting prospects at the top of the draft. After the 2012 season he seemed to be in the running as a top-10 pick, but he bulked up considerably and had a fairly disappointing year. With his length he seems to have a frame best suited to being an edge player, but with the added weight (I believe he was playing at 320 pounds this past season), he might be limited to the interior of the line. What is his position? The Combine is going to give us a good indication where he belongs on the field, and on draft boards.

from cardinalconnect.com

Calvin Pryor

The defensive backs in the blue-chip and red-chip area are tremendous. Calvin Pryor is gaining a lot of steam as the top safety in the class, but HaHa Clinton-Dix is still the top guy for me at that position. It’s a close call though, and a great Combine by either player could give them the necessary boost to solidify the top spot.

I like three cornerbacks in this draft more than I liked Dee Milliner and D.J. Hayden in last year’s draft. Justin Gilbert is probably the best athlete to enter the draft at the cornerback position since Patrick Peterson, and Darqueze Dennard is probably the most technically sound and competitive to enter since Morris Claiborne. Both guys are deserving a top-15 selection in most drafts, even this one, but the sheer depth of this class might push on (or both) further down the board than would be normal for corners of their quality.

Like Brandin Cooks at receiver, a guy I absolutely love is Jason Verrett. He’s undersized, and so he’s not quite in the class of Gilbert and Dennard, but he’s a true competitor and he plays the game with the quickness and toughness you want to see from smaller players. Verrett is a guy probably would have been picked in the top-20 of last year’s draft (I would have argued he should be taken over Milliner even), but because of the depth this year will probably be swooped up near the end of Day 1. Love him as a prospect though. Definitely a guy the Niners could target, as he’s the premier slot cornerback in this draft as far as I’m concerned.

Another guy I want to talk up is Lamarcus Joyner. He’s a “tweener” in that he is a bit too short to be a corner on the outside, and a bit too light to be an in the box safety, but I don’t care where you put him, Joyner is going to make plays. He’s just a baller, pure and simple. He shouldn’t make it out of the first round, but I feel like he will, unless he generates buzz at the Combine. He’s similar to Tyrann Matthieu except instead of carrying baggage he’s carrying football savvy and leadership.

After Verrett the CB rankings are fuzzy. The Combine should shed a lot on who the elite athletes are, and will probably lead to some rearranging of the position in players 4-10 and beyond.

from football.com

Pierre Desir

Two guys to watch closely are Louichiez Purifoy of Florida and Pierre Desir of Lindenwood. Both are ideal athletes that have prototype height/weight/speed for the position. Purifoy has some top-10 buzz prior to this season. He’s a special teams maven, and while his film isn’t his strongest suit, he has all the tools to work with.

Desir is one of my favorite players in the draft. I discovered him watching the Senior Bowl practices and a strong draft crush was developed at first sight. He was competitive with the D-1 guys and he played with fairly good technique. He’s got great size at 6’ 1” 195 pounds, and after watching him for only a little while, I expect him to show great speed at that size, probably in the low 4.4 range. He’s a guy that can push himself from a mid-round prospect to an early Day 2 pick with a great Combine.

I like small school guys at the skill positions, because they generally come in with a chip on their shoulder, and that extra competitive edge helps them to maximize their athletic potential, and Desir seems to have an incredible amount of athletic potential.

from ncaa.com

Ryan Shazier

C.J. Mosley is, and will almost assuredly stay, the top "standard" (as in non-edge-rushing) linebacker prospect in this draft. His Combine performance is merely going to decide where he goes in relation to the other positions, and how much farther ahead of Borland or Smallwood or Shazier he’s selected.

Ryan Shazier is an interesting player because his size pretty much limits him to being a 4-3 OLB. That lack of versatility really hurts his stock, but it’s difficult to place him because he has the potential to be a dominant OLB in a 4-3. He’s very reminiscent of Lavonte David who fell into the second round but has been a hugely impactful player for the Buccaneers.

There’s so much more to say about all these players, but I’ll let the rankings finish my thoughts for me from here. After the Combine I’ll have more time to fully flesh out my opinions of each of the position groups and the major prospects.

Enjoy the Combine. Go Niners.

LINK TO POSITIONAL RANKINGS HERE

LINK TO DEFENSIVE BIG BOARD HERE

NFL Draft 2014: A Pre-Combine Look at the Offense

Please read my previous post about my "scouting methodology" as a reference for how I determined these rankings. Gracias.    

Today I'll be unveiling my pre-Combine Offensive Rankings. I have some semblance of an "offensive big
board," but the positional rankings are of much more importance at this point.

The positional rankings can be found here (click anywhere on this line of text).

And here is a JPEG of my entire offensive board as it stands currently (this is incomplete, as it only accounts for the players I included in my positional rankings...basically it's just a pretty piece of nonsense).

Click to enlarge. A google doc version can be had here.

I’m not going to go into the thought process behind each individual ranking, but I’ll hit on some of the more “controversial” or noteworthy aspects of my rankings.

Let’s start with the quarterbacks, because this is where a large amount of debate and disagreement is bound to arise.

I have Johnny Manziel third, behind both Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles. Mel Kiper recently called him the “consensus number one quarterback,” but no one involved me in whatever vote it took to get that consensus. I think Manziel is a great college player and I think he can be a great NFL quarterback, but there are way too many concerns to rank him ahead of two very quality prospects in Bridgewater and Bortles.

Manziel’s character concerns are well documented. His biggest job this week at the Combine is to interview well. I don’t think anyone—I personally don’t—questions his love of the game, but he’s a bit of an idiot (or has been in the past), and it’s difficult to want to draft a guy to be your franchise QB if you aren’t sold on him as a person as well as a player. I’m not (at least not from the standpoint of a GM).

I’m also not too enthused with his skill-set. He’s elusive and mobile and instinctual, but is he a quarterback? Can he make the throws from the pocket? These age old cliché questions haven’t been answered, and I’m worried about taking a QB in the top-10 when the answer isn’t a resounding yes, much less a “probably.”

Bridgewater began this year as the class’ crown jewel at the QB position and nothing he did during the season made me lower my estimations of him. He’s got good arm strength, great accuracy, solid mobility, good pocket presence, and above-average field awareness. He’s a bit lean, but that’s easily fixed. He’s a very good prospect, and while I only have him 9^th in my rankings as of right now, he could certainly go No. 1 overall and I wouldn’t criticize the choice.

Bortles has the best physical tools of the three. He’s got a great arm, a great build and great mobility for a big man. He’ll draw some comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger, and while comparing is always a slippery slope, it’s not completely off base. That said, he played at a small school and is still raw, so how much confidence can you really put in him as a starting quarterback not only of the future, but of the present? (Which he would be expected to be if drafted in the top-5 as I assume he will be.)

If I had to pick one of these QBs to make the Hall of Fame in 25 years, it’d be Manziel—he has that competitive fire and air of greatness.

But if I had to pick one to bust it’d also be Manziel. Can he keep his mind right? Can he make the throws?

If I had to pick one QB to make half-a-dozen plus Pro-Bowls it would be Bortles. If he gets it together, he’s going to put together a fine career.

If I had to pick one QB to turn around a bad team and win me a Super Bowl, it’s Teddy Bridgewater. So he’s my No. 1 QB for now.

from cbssports.com

The next position of greatest intrigue is wide receiver. Most of you reading this, and all of me writing it, are 49ers fans. We need a receiver; that’s no secret. So I’m sure many of you are going to be paying close attention to receiver rankings and to the receivers at the combine.

I have Marqise Lee ranked second. I’ve seen him as low as fourth, behind both Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin. I think people forget how dominant he was in 2012 with Matt Barkley at QB. He surpassed Robert Woods—an impressive second round pick last year—as the premier receiver on his team. His numbers did come down this year, but he was on a team that substituted quarterbacks depending on the series and situation. It wasn’t all his fault. He’s a bit undersized, but he’s an explosive playmaker with great hands and run-after-the-catch ability.

I ranked Benjamin ahead of Evans in the battle of the premier big boys at the receiver position. I think Evans has a better chance of being drafted higher, but I think Benjamin’s potential is too great to have him ranked any lower than third right now. It’ll be very interesting to see how these guys run at combine.

My thinking is this; if Evans reaches his ceiling, he’s a Vincent Jackson type receiver—which is to say he’s a borderline top-10 receiver. If Benjamin reaches his ceiling though, he’ll be the closest thing to Calvin Johnson donning a jersey outside of Calvin Johnson (who, to be fair, will never be replicated).

It’s a matter of floor and ceiling. Evans has more potential to contribute right now, but Benjamin is a rare athlete that could blossom into one of the more dominant offensive weapons in the league.

Another surprise is Brandin Cooks ranked fifth amongst receivers. I love this kid. I’ll write more about him, but I’ll say now that he’s an early front-runner for draft crush 2014. Undersized, but tough, fast and quick with a great set of hands. He’s a ball player.

from rantsports.com

I like Greg Robinson a slight bit more than Jake Matthews at offensive tackle. Both could easily go as high as No. 2. It’s a similar situation to last year when Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel were vying for the top spot and Fisher won the first selection on the strength of his superior athleticism.

Robinson is probably an even better athlete than Fisher, and his technique and the level of competition he faced also trumps Fisher’s. He has the feet to excel on the left side, and the power to excel on the right. He’s an ideal athlete for the position, and he has some very quality film as well. Matthews is no slouch, and is equally deserving of the term “franchise tackle,” but Robinson’s athleticism pushes him slightly up the board.

A guy most people will mock in the first round, and who will be right there with Taylor Lewan on most people’s boards as the 3^rd best tackle in this draft is Zack Martin of Notre Dame. He has short arms (measured at less than 33 inches) which is a killer for offensive tackles. Leverage is a key part of blocking edge rushers, and long levers (arms) are key to leverage. I think Martin will be drafted in the first round a la Justin Pugh of the New York Giants last year, but like Pugh I expect him to struggle, so he’s absent from my top-5 tackles. A change to guard should be in order, and if that’s the position he’s expected to be drafted for, I’ll change my rankings accordingly. As a tackle though, I’m not high on him.

from theadvocate.com

The running back position is very much up in the air right now. There are no clear-cut first rounders, and no clear-cut top back as far as I’m concerned. The combine will probably shake up the rankings quite a bit as we get a feel for what kind of athletes these guys are.

The backs I like the most from a game-watching standpoint are Kadeem Carey and Tre Mason. I fully expect both those guys to be good players at the next level. They run with great balance, power behind the pads and vision. However neither is very big and neither is very fast. I think either Carlos Hyde or Jeremy Hill will wow people with their athleticism and climb to the top of the board.

from cachevalleydaily.com

Tyler Larsen

I can’t profess to be incredibly up on interior lineman yet. Xavier Su’a-Filo is the most athletically gifted of the bunch. David Yankey was projected as a high pick before the season began, and I think he solidified himself as one of the top interior lineman (he also has some versatility, as he has some experience at tackle as well). He probably is the best bet to make an impact from day one.

I would recommend going to NFL.com or to this link at walterfootball.com for combine weigh-ins and measurements which were completed today.

_________________________________________________________________ 

Actually, I got distracted at least a dozen times during the writing of this article, which I started prior to weigh-ins. I want to make a couple notes. (None of these have any effect on the rankings, which I did well prior to these measurements, as is the point of the process).

·         Bridgewater measured in at 6’ 2” and 214 pounds, which was actually important for him. He could still stand to add some weight to his frame, but there was some speculation he could weigh in under 200, which wouldn’t have boded well for his draft stock.

·         As expected Manziel measured in at under six feet. It’s not going to hurt his stock, as it’s no surprise, but it won’t help either.

·         Carlos Hyde and Jeremy Hill both hit at or near the prototype height and weight for running backs. Despite the incredible seasons of Mason and Carey, I would be surprised if teams don’t fall in love with the size and speed of the former two. They’ll probably be the first backs of the board.

·         Lache Seastrunk needs to run a blazing 40-time to leapfrog the other backs after measuring in at 5’ 9” and 201. He needs to run a blazing 40 and then hit the weight room.

·         At 6’ 5” and 240 pounds Kelvin Benjamin is one of the biggest top receiver prospects to come out in years. If he runs in the 4.4 range in the 40 he won’t make it past pick 20. Mike Evans isn’t far behind at 6’ 4” 231.

·         Kelvin Benjamin’s hands are also a ridiculous 10 ¼ inches. He’s like one of those players you create in Madden. Ridiculous.

·         Brandin Cooks actually measured in at a slightly disappointing 189 pounds. It’s not necessarily unexpected, but if he was closer to two bills and still ran in the 4.3 range his stock was going to go way up (maybe this is a silver lining for teams picking later in the draft…)

·         All the tight ends measured in about as expected. I thought perhaps Amaro would come in at under 265, which is a good number for him. No changes or surprises here though.

·         At 6’ 5” 332 with 35 inch arms, Greg Robinson confirmed that he is an almost perfect specimen of a left tackle. Jake Matthews’ arms measured in at a slightly underwhelming 33 3/8 inches.