Please read my previous post about my "scouting methodology" as a reference for how I determined these rankings. Gracias.
Today I'll be unveiling my pre-Combine Offensive Rankings. I have some semblance of an "offensive big
board," but the positional rankings are of much more importance at this point.
The positional rankings can be found here (click anywhere on this line of text).
And here is a JPEG of my entire offensive board as it stands currently (this is incomplete, as it only accounts for the players I included in my positional rankings...basically it's just a pretty piece of nonsense).
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| Click to enlarge. A google doc version can be had here. |
I’m not going to go into the thought process behind each
individual ranking, but I’ll hit on some of the more “controversial” or
noteworthy aspects of my rankings.
Let’s start with the quarterbacks, because this is where a
large amount of debate and disagreement is bound to arise.
I have Johnny Manziel third, behind both Teddy Bridgewater
and Blake Bortles. Mel Kiper recently called him the “consensus number one
quarterback,” but no one involved me in whatever vote it took to get that
consensus. I think Manziel is a great college player and I think he can be a
great NFL quarterback, but there are way too many concerns to rank him ahead of
two very quality prospects in Bridgewater and Bortles.
Manziel’s character concerns are well documented. His
biggest job this week at the Combine is to interview well. I don’t think anyone—I personally don’t—questions his love of the game, but he’s a bit of an idiot (or
has been in the past), and it’s difficult to want to draft a guy to be your
franchise QB if you aren’t sold on him as a person as well as a player. I’m not
(at least not from the standpoint of a GM).
I’m also not too enthused with his skill-set. He’s elusive
and mobile and instinctual, but is he a quarterback? Can he make the throws
from the pocket? These age old cliché questions haven’t been answered, and I’m
worried about taking a QB in the top-10 when the answer isn’t a resounding
yes, much less a “probably.”
Bridgewater began this year as the class’ crown jewel at the
QB position and nothing he did during the season made me lower my estimations
of him. He’s got good arm strength, great accuracy, solid mobility, good pocket
presence, and above-average field awareness. He’s a bit lean, but that’s easily
fixed. He’s a very good prospect, and while I only have him 9th in
my rankings as of right now, he could certainly go No. 1 overall and I wouldn’t
criticize the choice.
Bortles has the best physical tools of the three. He’s got a
great arm, a great build and great mobility for a big man. He’ll draw some
comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger, and while comparing is always a slippery
slope, it’s not completely off base. That said, he played at a small school and
is still raw, so how much confidence can you really put in him as a starting
quarterback not only of the future, but of the present? (Which he would be expected to be if drafted in the top-5 as I assume he will be.)
If I had to pick one of these QBs to make the Hall of Fame
in 25 years, it’d be Manziel—he has that competitive fire and air of greatness.
But if I had to pick one to bust it’d also be Manziel. Can
he keep his mind right? Can he make the throws?
If I had to pick one QB to make half-a-dozen plus Pro-Bowls
it would be Bortles. If he gets it together, he’s going to put together a fine
career.
If I had to pick one QB to turn around a bad team and win me
a Super Bowl, it’s Teddy Bridgewater. So he’s my No. 1 QB for now.
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| from cbssports.com |
The next position of greatest intrigue is wide receiver.
Most of you reading this, and all of me writing it, are 49ers fans. We need a
receiver; that’s no secret. So I’m sure many of you are going to be paying
close attention to receiver rankings and to the receivers at the combine.
I have Marqise Lee ranked second. I’ve seen him as low as
fourth, behind both Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin. I think people forget how
dominant he was in 2012 with Matt Barkley at QB. He surpassed Robert Woods—an
impressive second round pick last year—as the premier receiver on his team. His
numbers did come down this year, but he was on a team that substituted
quarterbacks depending on the series and situation. It wasn’t all his fault. He’s
a bit undersized, but he’s an explosive playmaker with great hands and
run-after-the-catch ability.
I ranked Benjamin ahead of Evans in the battle of the
premier big boys at the receiver position. I think Evans has a better chance of
being drafted higher, but I think Benjamin’s potential is too great to have him
ranked any lower than third right now. It’ll be very interesting to see how
these guys run at combine.
My thinking is this; if Evans reaches his ceiling, he’s a
Vincent Jackson type receiver—which is to say he’s a borderline top-10
receiver. If Benjamin reaches his ceiling though, he’ll be the closest thing to Calvin
Johnson donning a jersey outside of Calvin Johnson (who, to be fair, will never be replicated).
It’s a matter of floor and ceiling. Evans has more potential
to contribute right now, but Benjamin is a rare athlete that could blossom into
one of the more dominant offensive weapons in the league.
Another surprise is Brandin Cooks ranked fifth amongst
receivers. I love this kid. I’ll write more about him, but I’ll say now that he’s
an early front-runner for draft crush 2014. Undersized, but tough, fast and
quick with a great set of hands. He’s a ball player.
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| from rantsports.com |
I like Greg Robinson a slight bit more than Jake Matthews at offensive tackle.
Both could easily go as high as No. 2. It’s a similar situation to last year
when Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel were vying for the top spot and Fisher won the
first selection on the strength of his superior athleticism.
Robinson is probably an even better athlete than Fisher, and
his technique and the level of competition he faced also trumps Fisher’s. He
has the feet to excel on the left side, and the power to excel on the right. He’s
an ideal athlete for the position, and he has some very quality film as well.
Matthews is no slouch, and is equally deserving of the term “franchise tackle,”
but Robinson’s athleticism pushes him slightly up the board.
A guy most people will mock in the first round, and who will
be right there with Taylor Lewan on most people’s boards as the 3rd
best tackle in this draft is Zack Martin of Notre Dame. He has short arms
(measured at less than 33 inches) which is a killer for offensive tackles.
Leverage is a key part of blocking edge rushers, and long levers (arms) are key
to leverage. I think Martin will be drafted in the first round a la Justin Pugh
of the New York Giants last year, but like Pugh I expect him to struggle, so he’s
absent from my top-5 tackles. A change to guard should be in order, and if that’s
the position he’s expected to be drafted for, I’ll change my rankings
accordingly. As a tackle though, I’m not high on him.
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| from theadvocate.com |
The running back position is very much up in the air right
now. There are no clear-cut first rounders, and no clear-cut top back as far as
I’m concerned. The combine will probably shake up the rankings quite a bit as
we get a feel for what kind of athletes these guys are.
The backs I like the most from a game-watching standpoint
are Kadeem Carey and Tre Mason. I fully expect both those guys to be good
players at the next level. They run with great balance, power behind the pads
and vision. However neither is very big and neither is very fast. I think
either Carlos Hyde or Jeremy Hill will wow people with their athleticism and
climb to the top of the board.
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from cachevalleydaily.com
Tyler Larsen |
I can’t profess to be incredibly up on interior lineman yet.
Xavier Su’a-Filo is the most athletically gifted of the bunch. David Yankey was
projected as a high pick before the season began, and I think he solidified
himself as one of the top interior lineman (he also has some versatility, as he
has some experience at tackle as well). He probably is the best bet to make an
impact from day one.
I would recommend going to NFL.com or to this link at walterfootball.com for combine weigh-ins and measurements which were completed
today.
Actually, I got distracted at least a dozen times during the
writing of this article, which I started prior to weigh-ins. I want to make a
couple notes. (None of these have any effect on the rankings, which I did well
prior to these measurements, as is the point of the process).
·
Bridgewater measured in at 6’ 2” and 214 pounds,
which was actually important for him. He could still stand to add some weight
to his frame, but there was some speculation he could weigh in under 200, which
wouldn’t have boded well for his draft stock.
·
As expected Manziel measured in at under six
feet. It’s not going to hurt his stock, as it’s no surprise, but it won’t help
either.
·
Carlos Hyde and Jeremy Hill both hit at or near
the prototype height and weight for running backs. Despite the incredible
seasons of Mason and Carey, I would be surprised if teams don’t fall in love
with the size and speed of the former two. They’ll probably be the first backs
of the board.
·
Lache Seastrunk needs to run a blazing 40-time
to leapfrog the other backs after measuring in at 5’ 9” and 201. He needs to
run a blazing 40 and then hit the weight room.
·
At 6’ 5” and 240 pounds Kelvin Benjamin is one
of the biggest top receiver prospects to come out in years. If he runs in the
4.4 range in the 40 he won’t make it past pick 20. Mike Evans isn’t far behind
at 6’ 4” 231.
·
Kelvin Benjamin’s hands are also a ridiculous 10
¼ inches. He’s like one of those players you create in Madden. Ridiculous.
·
Brandin Cooks actually measured in at a slightly
disappointing 189 pounds. It’s not necessarily unexpected, but if he was closer
to two bills and still ran in the 4.3 range his stock was going to go way up
(maybe this is a silver lining for teams picking later in the draft…)
·
All the tight ends measured in about as
expected. I thought perhaps Amaro would come in at under 265, which is a good
number for him. No changes or surprises here though.
·
At 6’ 5” 332 with 35 inch arms, Greg Robinson
confirmed that he is an almost perfect specimen of a left tackle. Jake Matthews’
arms measured in at a slightly underwhelming 33 3/8 inches.
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