Initial Reaction After the Combine: Reworking the Position Rankings

from usatoday.com

Aaron Donald

If you want to skip the preamble, feel free. Scroll down and the positional rankings are right there obviously. Likewise, here's a link (there will be another) to the positional rankings in a compact form. 

So I've looked at all the heights, weights, arm-lengths, reps, times, jumps, leaps, shuttles and drills that I could get my eyes on. I watched a good portion of the Combine live. I watched some of it recorded. I watched some "highlights" on NFL.com, and some of it I completely missed. I read as many Combine recaps I could.

I watched all the wide receivers and running backs live. I watched all the defensive backs live. I watched some of the offensive lineman and defensive lineman on recording. I watched very little of the linebackers and tight ends, but I watched some. 

So there's your frame of reference for where I'm coming from with these reworkings. Some players completely changed my view of them by displaying way better than expected athleticism, or by underperforming and bringing previously assumed athleticism into question.

One of the guys that wowed me with his athletic performance was Aaron Donald. I thought he was a "high effort" player (which is a distinction usually given to guys who produce at the collegiate level through perseverance and dedication, not through pure talent...Which is by no means a "bad" thing, but it generally lowers their stock as it's perceived there's less improvement for them to make, less "room to grow." Their floor is high but their ceiling is low.) Anyway, when he completely blew the roof off the Combine with 35 reps (of 225 pounds) on the bench press, a 4.68 40 and  a vertical of 32 inches at 285 pounds he went from probable first rounder to definite first rounder who likely cemented a place among the top-20 picks.

from BleacherReport.com

Loucheiz Purifoy

The guy that was probably the most "disappointing" was Loucheiz Purifoy. He was listed at 6' 1" in college, and he was expected to be on of the bigger cornerbacks in this draft. At weigh-in day he measured in at a respectable 5' 11" and 190 pounds, but those were not the expected numbers for a guy that was billed as a physical specimen at the corner position. On tape, especially on special teams, he looks like a real speedster, flying down the field like a missile. He's blocked numerous kicks with what seems to be excellent lower body explosion, getting off the line and beating his blocker in a hurry. That athleticism was not evidenced in a very poor Combine performance that saw him total only 6 reps on the bench (low even for a CB), and a 4.61 in the 40. Perhaps he had an off day. The Combine isn't the only—or best—way to gauge pure athletic ability, but generally great athletes show up with great athletic performances in that environment. 

His Combine performance is more damning than others because he is a junior that chose to forego another year of eligibility, and he did so coming off a poor season playing cornerback. He was not a shutdown corner for Florida this year. His tape is so-so. He was expected to flirt with the first round based on his rare physical ability alone, but it seems as if his physical abilities aren't so rare after all. This is what the Combine helps with. Purifoy needs to run much better at his pro-day to get back among the top cornerbacks in the draft.

Without further ado, I give you my post-Combine positional rankings. I'll likely update these at least once more before the actual draft. I'll have a little bit to say on the other side as well. A more compact and easier to read version can be found HERE as a google doc.

QB

1) Teddy Bridgewater – Louisville

2) Blake Bortles – Central Florida

3) Johnny Manziel – Texas A&M

4) Derek Carr – Fresno St.

5) Jimmy Garoppolo – Eastern Illinois

6) David Fales – San Jose St.

7) A.J. McCarron – Alabama

8) Tahj Boyd – Clemson

9) Zach Mettenberger - LSU

10) Aaron Murray – Georgia

RB

1) Tre Mason – Auburn

2) Carlos Hyde – Ohio St.

3) Bishop Sankey – Washington

4) Tyler Gaffney – Stanford

5) Jeremy Hill – LSU

6) Andre Williams – Boston College

7) Jerick McKinnon – Georgia Southern

8) Dri Archer (RB/WR/KR) – Kent St.

9) Ka’Deem Carey – Arizona

10) Lache Seastrunk – Baylor

WR

1) Sammy Watkins – Clemson

2) Marqise Lee – USC

3) Mike Evans – Texas A&M

4) Brandin Cooks – Oregon St.

5) Odell Beckham Jr. – LSU

6) Kelvin Benjamin – Florida St.

7) Jordan Matthews – Vanderbilt

8) Davante Adams – Florida St.

9) Donte Moncreif – Ole Miss

10) Jarvis Landry – LSU

11) Allen Robinson – Penn St.

12) Jared Abbrederis – Wisconsin

13) Paul Richardson – Colorado St.

14) Martavis Bryant – Clemson

15) Jeff Janis – Saginaw Valley St.

(other notables: Robert Herron, Brandon Coleman, Cody Hoffman, Cody Latimer, Quincy Enunwa )

TE

1) Eric Ebron – North Carolina

2) Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Washington

3) Jace Amaro – Texas Tech

4) Troy Niklas – Notre Dame

5) C.J. Fiedorowicz – Iowa

6) A.C. Leonard – Tennessee St.

7) Crocket Gilmore – Colorado St.

8) Richard Rodgers – California

9) Xavier Grimble – USC

10) Arthur Lynch – Georgia 

OT

1) Greg Robinson – Auburn

2) Jake Matthews – Texas A&M

3) Taylor Lewan – Michigan

4) Cameron Fleming – Stanford

5) Morgan Moses – Virginia

6) Antonio Richardson – Tennessee

7) Cyrus Kouandjio – Alabama

8) Zack Martin – Notre Dame (OG?)

9) Ju’Wuan James – Tennessee

10) James Hurst – North Carolina

OG

1) Xavier Su’a-Filo – UCLA

2) David Yankey – Stanford

3) Cyril Richardson – Baylor

4) Gabe Jackson – Mississippi St.

5) Anthony Steen – Alabama

6) Chris Watt – Notre Dame

7) Dakota Dozier – Furman

8) Brandon  Thomas – Clemson (OT?)

9) Spencer Long – Nebraska

10) Joel Bitonio (OT?)

C

1) Weston Richburg – Colorado St.

2) Travis Swanson – Arkansas

3) Tyler Larsen – Utah St.

4) Marcus Martin – USC

5) Gabe Ikard – Oklahoma

6) Russell Bodine – North Carolina

7) James Stone – Tennessee

8) Bryan Stork – Florida St.

FB

1) Jay Prosch – Auburn

2) Trey Millard – Oklahoma

3) Ryan Hewitt – Stanford

4) J.C. Copeland – LSU

__________________________________________________________________________

DT

1) Timmy Jernigan – Florida St.

2) Aaron Donald – Pittsburgh

3) Louis Nix III – Notre Dame

4) Ra’Shede Hageman – Minnesota

5) Dominique Easley – Florida

6) Anthony Johnson – LSU

7) Caraun Reid – Princeton

8) Will Sutton – Arizona St.

9) George Uko – USC

10) Daquan Jones – Penn St.

DE*

1) Jadaveon Clowney – South Carolina

2) Kony Ealy – Missouri

3) Stephon Tuitt – Notre Dame

4) Scott Crichton – Oregon St.

5) Dee Ford – Auburn (OLB?)

6) Trent Murphy – Stanford (OLB?)

7) Kareem Martin – North Carolina

8) Marcus Smith – Louisville

9) Taylor Hart – Oregon

10) Michael Sam – Missouri

OLB*

1) Anthony Barr – UCLA

2) Khalil Mack – Buffalo

3) Ryan Shazier – Ohio St.

4) Telvin Smith – Florida St.

5) Kyle Van Noy – BYU

6) Carl Bradford – Arizona St.

7) Jeremiah Attaochu – Georgia Tech

8) Adrian Hubbard – Alabama

9) Jackson Jeffcoat – Texas

10) Morgan Breslin – USC

ILB*

1) C.J. Mosley – Alabama

2) Yawin Smallwood – Connecticut

3) Christian Jones – Florida St.

4) Shayne Skov – Stanford

5) Lamin Barrow – LSU

6) Chris Borland – Wisconsin

7) Khairi Fortt – California

8) Kevin Pierre-Louis – Boston College

9) Jordan Zumwalt – UCLA

10) A.J. Tarpley – Stanford

CB

1) Justin Gilbert – Oklahoma St.

2) Darqueze Dennard – Michigan St.

3) Jason Verrett – TCU

4) Kyle Fuller – Virginia Tech

5) Bradley Roby – Ohio St.

6) Marcus Roberson – Florida

7) Pierre Desir – Lindenwood

8) Keith McGill – Utah

9) Philip Gaines – Rice

10) Jaylen Watkins – Florida

11) Stanley Jean-Baptiste – Nebraska

12) Brock Vereen – Minnesota

13) Loucheiz Purifoy – Florida

14) Kendall James – Maine

15) Bashaud Breeland – Clemson

(other notables: E.J. Gaines, Terrence Mitchell, Chris Davis, Ricardo Allen, Andre Hal, Walt Aikens)

FS*

1) HaHa Clinton-Dix – Alabama

2) Calvin Pryor – Louisville

3) Lamarcus Joyner – Florida St. (CB/DB)

4) Terrence Brooks – Florida St.

5) Ed Reynolds – Stanford

6) Dion Bailey – USC

7) Antone Exum – Virginia Tech

SS*

1) Deone Buchannon – Washington St.

2) Craig Loston – LSU

3) Ahmad Dixon – Baylor

4) Tre Boston – North Carolina

5) Jimmy Ward – Northern Illinois

6) Vinnie Sunseri – Alabama

7) Kenny Ladler – Vanderbilt

* So it’s sort of an arbitrary process deciding where to place certain players in position groups. Most 3-4 outside linebackers are going to be converted defensive ends, a good many 3-4 inside linebackers will be converted 4-3 outside linebackers, and plenty of outside linebackers in a 4-3 will be converted 4-3 inside linebackers.

Depending on the team and scheme a lot of these players will be changing positions. On the 49ers Dee Ford would be a 3-4 OLB. On the Seahawks he’s a 4-3 OLB and a 4-3 DE depending on the package. On the Lions he’s probably a situational pass-rushing DE in a 4-3.

My basic rule is that if I think the player can succeed at his “natural” collegiate position in the NFL I’ll leave him in that position group until I start putting the same player in multiple position groups in later rankings. So while I think undersized DEs like Dee Ford and Marcus Smith and Michael Sam can remain DEs in the NFL, I personally think guys like Jeremiah Attaochu, Jackson Jeffcoat and Morgan Breslin cannot.

This is similar for ILB/OLB. A lot of guys that would play OLB in a 4-3 would also fit as an ILB in a 3-4. A lot of guys that play ILB in a 4-3 can only play ILB in a 4-3 (Chris Borland and Max Bullough). Some guys can play any LB position in any scheme (C.J. Mosley is probably the best example of this).

The point is that unless you are making a big board for a specific team (which I’m not really doing) the process becomes even more arbitrary and complex and layered. So if (and it’s likely) Dee Ford is converted to a Von Miller type OLB in a 4-3 or a standing OLB in a 3-4 don’t bitch at me about ranking him as a DE this early in the process.

* I have to make a similar note for safeties. I grouped them together based off their skill-set and the “prototype” for FS and SS. However, most of the safeties can play either position and which position they actually play is totally dependent on the team they’re drafted by. Some teams don’t even differentiate safeties anymore—they’re both just “safeties.” So these are also fairly arbitrary, but there is some method to sorting them as I did. 

from auburntigers.com

Tre Mason

I also want to mention, lastly, that I rearranged the running back position A LOT. I mentioned in my initial rankings that I was very unsure of them. Running backs are semi-easy to evaluate on tape. You can tell when a guy has a good vision, balance and power. It jumps out at you. What is more difficult is to tell how those skills (if they have them) will translate to the much faster, more physical and more disciplined NFL. Basically, are those guys good athletes with rare vision and balance, or are the great athletes with rare vision and balance? Tre Mason was among the latter, Ka'Deem Carey was among the former. I still like Carey as a back in the NFL, but a guy with his athletic limitations (and off the field issues) cannot be considered in the early rounds, not at a position like running back.

Similar changes in each position group were made throughout the process. From here on out I'll likely be writing one post per position group, maybe stopping to write a post about a specific prospect. But for now there won't be large, meta draft posts. It's time to get specific...Until we get to the granddaddy of them all, the REAL Big Board. Save up for lamination costs, because come May I'm going to have something worthy of a trip to FedEx Office, you better believe it. 

Thanks for reading, and thanks to me for writing. Have a good one y'all.

***BTW, I'm on Twitter now. So you can follow me @SpencerHaar. I'll be linking to all these wonderful articles. I'll also be contributing for a sports commentary community called The Sidelines (sidelinesapp.com) in my spare, spare time. I think what I post there will likewise be made easily available on Twitter. So yeah, follow away. Gracias.***