It’s been a long break but I’m ready to get back to work on
this draft analysis stuff. Pro-day results are coming in and while it’s very
difficult to get accurate numbers (the scouts there do all the timing by hand
and have no incentive to share the results) there are generally reports when a
prospect has an outstanding or disappointing workout.
I’m going to break up each position group into a specific
post (or two), ordering each position group based on what I consider the 49er’s
needs from most needed to least needed. The hope is that if anything changes
significantly in the position groups of greatest need between now and then
(which I doubt) I can always circle back before the draft and hit on these groups
again. I also expect I’ll be doing some more in-depth profiles of specific
players in the future too, but who knows, no one pays me for this shit.
The two obvious areas of need for the 49ers, as any casual
fan can tell you, are cornerback and wide receiver. You can make an argument
for either being the position of greatest need, but I’m of the opinion that it’s
cornerback, so I’ll start there. Cornerback is a deep group and as it’s a
position of need I’m going to try to do at least 10 of them, so I’m going to
break up the position into two posts.
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| from steelcityblitz.com |
1. Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma
State (6’0”, 202 lbs.)
Justin Gilbert is the best cornerback prospect since Patrick
Peterson. In fact, they are actually pretty comparable prospects. Gilbert is
the prototype athlete for the position, possessing great size at 6’ ft. and 202
lbs. He’s also among the fastest cornerbacks in the entire class, so unlike
many of the other larger corners in the draft his recovery speed isn’t in
question. Even more importantly though, Gilbert is incredibly fluid. He has
absolutely no problems in his backpedal, his lateral agility or flipping his
hips. I haven’t seen much of it on tape, but I expect he could play nickel in
the NFL given his fluidity and agility. He does a great job of turning his head
to locate the ball, and while he may not look as natural as a wideout catching
passes, the seven interceptions he racked up in his final season shows ample
evidence he’s a ballhawk. Gilbert is also one of the top punt returners in this
class, so a guy that already is worthy of a top-10 selection in a loaded class
based on his defensive prowess adds even more value with his ability to make an
impact on special teams.
While Gilbert is certainly the top corner in the class, and
one of the better corners to come out in a few seasons, he still has his flaws.
He’s not a bad tackler, but he’s not a great one (even for a corner) and he
doesn’t always show a lot of effort or physicality against the run. While it
would be overboard and unfair to call him lazy or unmotivated, he certainly
doesn’t always show the competitiveness or aggressiveness you’d like to see in
a defender—though this is fairly typical of cover corners. Gilbert plays a lot
man coverage, and while he’s pretty great at it, he could stand to get even
more aggressive and physical in press-man. I assume that’s something that he’ll
be taught at the next level, especially with all the dickriding that’s been
going on with Richard Sherman and his borderline assaults within 5-yards of the
line of scrimmage. There are some reports that label him as a diva, but that
comes with the territory with guys of his talent at the skill positions. I
haven’t read anything that questions his work ethic or love of the game, so I’m
not overly concerned if he’s going to run his mouth at times. Most great
cornerbacks have a little extra swag.
His technique is lacking at times, probably because he’s so
athletically gifted and confident that he can play sloppy and still be the best
player on the field, but if that isn’t fixed fairly quickly in the NFL I’d fire
the coaches, not the GM for picking him.
I also can’t find many instances of him in zone coverage. I
assume if I dug around more I could find it, but truth be told I’ve seen enough
of his game film to know he has the skills and ability to play in either a zone
or man or hybrid scheme and be fine. Maybe he’d be best off going to a team
that plays primarily man coverage, but any team with a need for a corner is
going to take this guy first, so it’s sort of a moot point.
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| from michigandaily.com |
2. Darqueze Dennard, Michigan
State (5’11”, 199 lbs.)
Media types that want to create antagonism or create
controversy that doesn’t exist are going to compare Gilbert and Dennard as “opposites:”
Gilbert the super-athlete vs. Dennard the blue-collar working man. It ain’t
that simple.
Sure, Dennard is lacking slightly what Gilbert boasts most
of—pure speed and athletic ability—but it’s not like Dennard is running in the
4.8s either. He’s not an exceptional athlete, but he’s a pretty damn good one,
definitely good enough to be a great cover corner in the NFL.
Dennard is a technician at the position, and he plays with
fire and tenacity. Dennard is the best tackling and hitting corner in the
class. He’s not overly big—though he does possess good size for the position—
but you wouldn’t know it when he’s coming up to hit a 230 pound back in run support.
He’s a team leader and a hustle athlete. He’s a competitor.
I don’t think I’ve seen Dennard play any zone coverage at
all, but he is exceptional in man coverage. He’s the top cornerback in the
class at route recognition, and he always turns his head to find the ball. He’s
not great at playing the ball in the air, but he attacks it and competes for it
which causes a lot of pass break-ups. He would be an ideal fit for a team that
utilizes a lot of man concepts, and is probably the draft’s premier press-man
corner. Some draft analysts will question his ability to thrive in a zone-heavy
scheme, but I think he’d fit in fine on a team that plays a lot of zone too, I
just wouldn’t call it an ideal fit.
Dennard is a guy any team would be lucky to have, and a guy
any fan will want to root for. His ceiling is pretty damn high and his floor is
too. Given the depth of this class and his underwhelming (if not disappointing)
athletic performance at the combine, Dennard is probably going to fall a lot
farther down the board than he should. I have a top-15 grade on him but I
suspect he’ll come off the board somewhere in the early 20s.
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| from tcu360.com |
3. Jason Verrett, TCU (5’9”,
189 lbs.)
Verrett would be a top-20 pick if he measured in an inch
taller. The difference between 5’9” and 5’10” is probably going to cost him
5-15 draft slots. While I put pretty significant stock into height and weight,
I’m not going to dock Verrett like some others will for being one inch too
short to be considered an “outside cornerback.”
Verrett is the best quick twitch athlete at his position,
which means he has lightning fast ability to change direction to adjust to
routes or the flight of the ball. He’s exceptional at mirroring a receiver’s
routes, which makes him very good in off-man coverage. He’s also probably the
best corner in the class when it comes to making plays on the ball. He attacks
it in the air and displays great hands for a corner. His vision and agility also
make him well-suited for zone schemes in the NFL.
Verrett is also a very willing tackler, which is outside the
norm for smaller cornerbacks. I can’t say that he’s an outstanding tackler when
it comes to form and success rate, but he’s pretty darn good for a corner of
any size, and his aggressiveness is top-notch. The fact that he has such
extreme change-of-direction skill and the willingness to be physical makes
Verrett a prototypical nickelback. The proliferation of three receiver sets in
the NFL makes a guy that can blanket a slot receiver nearly as valuable as a
guy who can lock down the outside. Verrett Island might exist between the
hashes instead of outside of them.
Verrett’s only real negative is his size, which does limit
his ability to be successful in schemes that rely a lot on press-man technique.
It also limits his potential to be a shutdown corner than can blanket any team’s
top receiver. Verrett simply does not have the size to go toe-to-toe with
Demaryius Thomas, much less Calvin Johnson. Still, Verrett has elite
athleticism for a player of his size (4.38 40 and 39” vertical), so I don’t
doubt his ability to be effective on the outside, he’s just not going to be
dominant out there.
Verrett has also dealt with injuries in the past (he is
currently dealing with a shoulder issue) so his durability is a question mark,
especially with his size, even though his toughness isn’t.
Verrett should come off the board in the latter half of the
first round, and most likely will, but a fall into the second round isn’t out
of the question.
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| from secondroundstats.com |
4. Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech
(6’0”, 190 lbs.)
Fuller started gaining some recognition and rising up draft
boards following a surprisingly strong show of athleticism at the Combine. He’s
a guy that is easy to like, but hard to fall in love with. He doesn’t really
display any exceptional or dominant qualities, but he also doesn’t have any
glaring weaknesses.
He has slightly above average speed, fairly good
change-of-direction ability, and acceptable ball skills. These physical
abilities coupled with his field awareness and competitiveness make him an
above average cover corner who displays a solid all-around game. He’s a guy
with a high floor but limited ceiling.
He could stand to add a little more weight to his frame to
get stronger in jam situations and run support. He sometimes get outmuscled for
the ball or boxed out on routes by physical receivers, but that isn’t to say he
shies away from contact.
I haven’t seen him do it with my own eyes, but he apparently
was a special teams stalwart for the Hokies, which is always a big positive. It
demonstrates a love for the game and a willingness to do the dirty work to help
the team win. It will also ease the transition to the NFL, as he will more than
likely be asked to play special teams. He was a team captain and three year
starter with no injury history of note.
Fuller is the kind of guy that will probably start a lot of
games for an NFL team, and might be skilled enough to serve as a No. 1 corner,
but it’s difficult to project him being a perennial pro-bowler or shutdown
corner (though it’s certainly not out of the question). I expect he’ll come off
the board somewhere between picks 20-40.
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| from theb1gtime.com |
5. Bradley Roby, Ohio State
(5’11”, 194 lbs.)
Roby is a volatile prospect. He entered the season as the
No. 1 corner in the country by most accounts, but after missing the season
opener with a team instituted suspension Roby had a fairly disappointing
campaign and fell out of favor with scouts and armchair GMs as Gilbert and
Dennard and Verrett solidified themselves with outstanding years.
Then he ran a 4.39 at the Combine and everyone and their
mother started talking about Roby as a top cornerback again. Myself included.
But unlike some who are willing to move him above Dennard based on that 40-time
alone, I am still wary of him as a prospect. He has all the physical tools to
be a very good cornerback, but he makes too many mental mistakes on the field
to warrant a solid first round grade based on his expected contribution at the
NFL level alone. Add in potential character concerns and Roby is pretty hard to
peg when it comes to where he deserves to be drafted.
Roby has good-enough size, great speed and quickness, and a
physical style of play that most teams will love. He isn’t outstanding at
making plays on the ball, but he doesn’t have hands of stone either. Roby is
probably second only to Verrett in terms of change-of-direction and foot
quickness, so he projects well as a nickelback which significantly increases
his value.
My biggest issue with Roby is his head, and I mean this
literally and figuratively. Literally, he sometimes is looking in the wrong
direction. You can’t cover guys that you aren’t looking at, and you can’t catch or knock
away a ball you can’t see. Too often Roby is staring into the backfield or
peeking into an adjacent zone and not doing his job in coverage. Equally as
often he is in good coverage but fails to locate the ball and allows
receptions. Figuratively, I question his “memory.” Corners need to have
short-term memories. If you get beat once, you can’t let it affect the next
play and get beat again. Roby plays way too hot and cold. When he’s playing
well, he’s playing fast and confident. When he’s getting beat, he’s getting
destroyed. Jared Abbrederis of Wisconsin caught 13 passes against Roby’s
coverage last season. 13! There are
also some character concerns as I mentioned earlier, so that doesn’t bode
extremely well for him either. He’s also not a great tackler, and has
difficulty shedding blocks, though his willingness to be physical is a
positive.
With proper motivation and coaching Roby could be a steal
because he probably has top-20 talent, but of all the top corners in this class
Roby has the biggest bust-factor. He could be picked anywhere in the first two
rounds and I wouldn’t really be surprised.
Part 2 soon…
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