NFL Championship Weekend: New England, Denver, San Francisco, Seattle and a Lombardi Trophy

I’ve waited this long to post something about this weekend’s games because I honestly don’t know what I can add to the discussion that hasn’t already been said. These were the games people were expecting back in August.

The Brady v. Manning storyline is about as interesting as a brown paper bag at this point. Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited as hell to watch those two duke it out again for a chance to go to the Super Bowl, I just don’t have any interest in hearing (or reading) about it anymore. I’m not a cruel guy, so I won’t subject my readers to something I myself can’t stomach. Brady is great, Manning is great, we get it.

Then there is almost-as-tired storyline about how both quarterbacks aren’t completely carrying their teams. They have running games now!

A conversation I did not actually witness, but which I know for a fact took place at ESPN at some point this week.

Merril Hoge: You know what Mark, everyone is going to want to talk about the quarterbacks in this game, and how can you not, we got two Hall of Famers battling, but both these teams run the ball exceptionally well too, let’s not forget. Knowshon Moreno—that guy is a factor back. He blocks, he catches and he eats up yards between the tackles. We all saw what LeGarrette Blount did to the Colts last Saturday. He’s a bruiser. I love the way he keeps his legs churning, doesn’t shy away from contact. When it’s all said and done, this might be the matchup that decides this football game; which team can run the ball better?

Mark Schlereth: I couldn’t agree more. Football games come down to one simple thing: Who controls the line of scrimmage. No one is talking about the offensive line play of these two teams, just fantastic. These are two hard-nosed football teams, and I don’t think that’s being talked about enough in the media.

If someone finds me a clip where this interaction actually happens I will give you absolutely nothing, because it shouldn’t be hard to find at all.

Really, with teams that are this familiar, teams that have made it this far and are this well known, there’s not a lot I can add that is outside the realm of the cliché and the overanalyzed. If you read this blog and have no exposure whatsoever to other NFL “experts” or writers or bloggers then I suppose this is going to disappoint you, however I don’t think I have any of those readers among my readership quite yet, so it’s a moot point.

You know what? I’m going to deny all the over-analyzing and cliché that’s been tossed around in the week leading up to this game with the biggest cliché of all, one that sometimes needs to be brought up when all eyes are on specific position groups or players:

The team that wins will be the team that plays better.

The simplest cliché in all of football, the least analytical analysis you can possibly conjure up, but one that is undeniably true. (Barring, oh I don’t know, say a new rule made up for Tom Brady so a fumble magically becomes a forward pass. But what are the odds, right?)

So after that cop out, let’s get to the Niners and Seahawks game!

I have been waiting for this game since the playoffs started… last year.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand I’m going to pull the same sort of cop out as in the last “analysis.” Look, I can’t add anything that hasn’t been said in the most obvious places. You want my analysis? Go read anything anyone has posted on NFL.com or ESPN.com. Somewhere in that jumbled mess of clichés and overused statistics is my analysis. It’s in there somewhere.

This is the third time these teams have played, the fifth in the last two seasons. What more can be said on paper? They’re going to say everything we need to hear on the field. They are familiar with one another, they know the other’s tendencies. They are both hard-nosed, fast, physical football teams and they dislike one another. Everything that needs to be said about the game is contained in that sentence, and it has been said with varying degrees of length and complexity by about 100 people in about 40 different corners of the internet.

I will add that I agree with the sentiment that in this game specifically, the first quarter is more important than in a typical NFL game, especially a typical playoff game. The Niners cannot fall behind and let the Century Link train get rolling. This is the Seahawks’ second-most important game in the history of their franchise (probably hardly cracks the Niners top-10). Outside of the 2006 Super Bowl against the Steelers, it hasn’t gotten any bigger than this for them. This is certainly their most important home game in their history.

The stadium, already a fortress of unsolitude, is going to be on-another-level absurd, like nothing the NFL has seen before.

The 49ers cannot afford to give the twelfth man the fuel to feed its fire. We have to come out of the gate fast and swinging, but with equal parts discipline.

I think we are capable of doing that. We are road-tested, and we have an incredible group of leaders and coaches. We are as close to “unflappable” as it gets. We just have to execute.

Once again, let’s reach back into our bag of clichés and pull out the most flaccid, clammy, uninteresting one we can! The team that wins will be the team that plays better.

What I can analyze is how insanely tickled I will be if the 49ers do win this game. I mean this in a way that’s ancillary to the pure joy and relief I’ll feel if we make our way back to the Super Bowl. In a very petty, childlike way nothing would tickle me more than watching a bunch of overconfident Seahawks fans walk out of their revered stadium shocked and depressed, tears rolling down their faces like Seattle rain.

This is a horrible part of me as a human being, I know it, but it’s part of the emotional milieu of diehard fandom; there are moments of ecstasy and togetherness balanced by the uncomfortable sensation that you’re going to have a creepy, evil smile spread across your face knowing that your rival fans are going to have a hard time sleeping at night as they replay, with torturous frequency, certain key moments that led to their team’s demise. Oh how tickled this would make me.

I feel like having this feeling makes it less likely that the Niners will win, just in terms of karma. Like the negative energy emanating from me is somehow going to infect the Niners with disorientation and lethargy.

But then I think about all the things I’ve heard/read Seahawks fans say over the last nineteen-or-so weeks and I remember that I’d probably have to murder in cold blood a village of children and puppies to even come close to turning the karmic tides. Those smug pacific northwestern loudmouths… They did this to me! I am only a monster because they brought it out in me. Fuck you Richard Sherman.

And now for my picks.

Patriots (+5.5) over BRONCOS

I’m not laying two field-goals on either of these teams. Even if the Broncos are better, do you really feel confident enough to think that they are so much better Tom Brady isn’t going to keep this thing within a hair’s breadth well into the 4^th quarter? I certainly don’t. In fact, I think the Pats are going to win. Bill Belichick > John Fox.

Pats 34, Broncos 31.

49ers (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS

WHO’S GOT IT BETTER THAN US!?!?

Niners 19, Seahawks 13. 

NFL Divisional Playoffs: The Other Games

This is probably my favorite week of the NFL season. Eight hours a day of great football played by the NFL’s best eight teams.

from huffingtonpost.com

This will probably not be Sean Payton's face after the game.

Saints (+7.5) over SEAHAWKS

No, I’m not picking the Saints to win this game outright. I’m hoping for it, but I’m not stupid enough to expect it. The Seahawks are one of the top three teams in football, hands down. The Saints are not. The Seahawks defense presents a really difficult matchup for the Saints, who don’t have a lot of receiving talent on the outside. Watch any football game involving the Saints and you’re inevitably treated to a bevy of stats and graphics about the ridiculous number of targets by Drew Brees to backs and tight ends. The Seahawks can match up one on one with the Saints receivers, the linebackers have the speed and tackling ability to make life difficult or impossible for pass-catching backs and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn can expend extra resources to the task of limiting Jimmy Graham. The Seahawks don’t have to do anything exotic or out of the ordinary to slow the Saints offense—we all saw that clear as day in the first meeting.

It sounds like I’m predicting a blowout, so why am I picking the Saints to cover? Sean Payton. If anyone can scheme offense to keep this game within reach, Sean Payton is the guy to do it and Drew Brees is an excellent choice to execute whatever genius plan his coach is going to concoct. I wrote in my last post that the quarterback-coach complex is the strongest indicator of a team’s playoff legitimacy, and Payton-Brees is the elite duo in the NFC (second only league wide, maybe, to Belichick-Brady). The Saints might be overmatched from a personnel standpoint, but given the experience of playing in Seattle once already this season, plus the added motivation of the embarrassment they suffered, and I expect the Saints to put up one hell of a fight. I would not be confident laying the points on the Seahawks—even if they are the superior team in the building with the most superior home field advantage.

Seahawks 27, Saints 23.

from barstoolsports.com

I have been waiting for an excuse to use this picture. God I hate that guy.

PATRIOTS (-7) over Colts

This is a matchup of two incredibly similar teams. The offenses are led by highly capable quarterbacks who raise the talent of the fairly mediocre receivers around them (T.Y. Hilton excluded), the running game is largely manufactured off the fear of the pass and headed by second-chance backs in LeGarrette Blount and Donald Brown, and the defenses are mediocre despite the fact they have shown they are capable of playing very well for stretches.

The major differences in this game are; the home field advantage, the fact that Luck has a much stronger penchant for turnovers than Brady, and that the Colts pass defense is weaker than the Patriots pass defense (while the Pats run defense is weaker than the Colts). This game isn’t about running the ball though, even if the Colts try to attack it that way. It will inevitably end up as a quarterback duel, and despite my complete faith in Luck and my longstanding hate of Tom Brady, it’s a duel I fully expect Brady to win.

Patriots 38, Colts 27.

from fantasybuzzer.com

He's listed as questionable, but if Mathews plays he's going to impact the game in a big way; whether that's with breaking off runs like this, or with fumbles remains to be seen.

Chargers (+9.5) over BRONCOS

The Broncos are probably the best team in the AFC, and the honor of me saying so is completely earned by their offense. Their offense is so far and above anything else in the AFC that it entirely makes up for their defense. They are not a complete team. They don’t just have holes here and there the way they Seahawks and 49ers do, they are simply bad as an entire unit on the defensive side of the ball.

So despite their incredible offense and the fact that I think that offense actually makes them the superior ball club in this game, I am picking them to lose this game.

The Chargers are just more balanced, and balance is a necessary component to postseason success. Shut down Peyton Manning and the pass game and you cut the metaphorical head off the Broncos. It’s so much easier said than done obviously, and no one has figured out how to “shut down” Manning this season, but the Chargers did a pretty great job—as good a job as anyone—in limiting that passing game during their Week 15 win in Denver.

Contrast that with the Chargers who have won games in every possible way this season; on the arm of Philip Rivers, with the legs of Ryan Mathews and with (at times) a stifling defense. The Chargers are just so much more multiple, flexible and adaptable, and that means a lot in a one and done scenario. Consider that last weekend the Chargers walked into Cincinnati (who had lost exactly zero games at home all season) and won the game in a very convincing 17 point drubbing (in the second half), and did this with Philip Rivers completing all of 12 passes. The Broncos simply could not win a game in which Manning completed even the number of attempt Rivers had at Cincinnati last weekend (16). Maybe that doesn’t matter, because there’s a very good chance Manning will put together another incredible quarterbacking performance, but if John Pagano and that Chargers defense put up any sort of legitimate resistance at all, it’s going to be very difficult for the Broncos to win this game.

Given the fact that the Chargers are officially what Bill Simmons refers to as “the Nobody-Believes-In-Us” Team of the 2013-2014 NFL playoffs, and Peyton Manning is almost as famous for blowing big playoff games as he is for glorious commercial acting (and his ungodly passing statistics and records I guess), I would not feel good laying the points for a double-digit Broncos victory.

Chargers 30, Broncos 28.

49ers vs. Panthers, Take 2: The One That Counts

from cbssanfran.com

Back on the grind, back on the grind.

I took a long time off from this blog for no other reason than I was lazy, and when I wasn’t lazy life got in the way. But I’m back to close out the season—a season I expect to end with the 49ers as Super Bowl Champs. The quest for six continues!

Last week’s games were awesome. I think enough has been said on those games without me rehashing everything. Andrew Luck is awesome, Alex Smith unlucky, Drew Brees clinical, Andy Dalton a mess, blah blah blah.

Look, here’s a rule I’m certainly not the first to point out, and it’s becoming so kicked around it’s already got the sour tang of a cliché. But it’s no empty cliché, it’s the absolute truth: If you want to win a Super Bowl you need a Super Bowl caliber coach and you need a legitimate (not elite) quarterback. The coach-quarterback complex is the ultimate indicator of championship legitimacy.

Marvin Lewis-Andy Dalton are not a championship caliber pairing.

Of the eight remaining teams, I’m fairly convinced by six of them of their legitimacy as contenders in terms of the coach-quarterback complex.

I am taking a wait-and-see approach with McCoy-Rivers (my hesitancy lies in McCoy, not Rivers) and Rivera-Newton (who are absolute wild cards as far as I’m concerned). You never know what you’re gonna get with Riverboat Ron—or as he’d prefer to be known, Calculated Risk Taker Ron—and Super-Cam.

The 49ers are inching closer to the Super Bowl, inching closer to a titanic battle of heavyweights with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.

But first—the Panthers.

from rugbywrapup.com

The storylines have been made clear; we owe them, we didn’t have three of our biggest stars for all or the majority of the game, the Niners are the best road team in football, the Panthers have no playoff experience. We’ve heard the Panthers will win because they field a defense that can confound Colin Kaepernick, because this is a game of two evenly matched teams but the Panthers are at home and in their time zone, because they have the added advantage of playing against the Vegas’ insulting spread, who made them home underdogs despite their superior seeding and win on our home field earlier this season.

I’m inclined to think all those things are going to affect this game in some way. It’s hard to estimate the psychological motivation such perceived slights have on hyper-competitive (likely unnaturally enhanced) athletes.

Because it’s impossible to estimate, I’m not going to say one team has more motivation or pressure to win this game than the other. The 49ers feel as if they owe the Panthers for a bad loss, the Panthers feel as if no one believes in them. Let’s call it evens.

I do think the Niners have the advantage as far as playoff experience. Once again, that’s an intangible advantage that’s difficult to quantify, but as Brady and Belichick, Eli Manning and Coughlin proven before, the been-there-done-that aspect of playoff experience is a legitimate advantage. Then again, so is home field advantage, especially when the 49ers have to travel east and play a game at 10 a.m. on their biological clock. Let’s call it evens.

I guess what I’m attempting to do here is even the playing field so to speak. If neither team has the outside advantage of extra motivation, or extra focus, or anything else intangible—if this game is played in complete neutrality (on paper basically) who wins?

I personally believe it’s the 49ers by a longshot. From a personnel standpoint the Niners are a superior team at almost every single position group.

You can make the case that Kaep and Cam Newton are essentially equals, and I wouldn’t necessarily argue that with too much fervor. In the previous match both played pretty poorly, though Cam played less poorly. Still, I can’t—as a Kaep supporter—not make the excuse for him that he was without two of his top weapons. Kaep is not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. He’s still developing, and he might never reach that pinnacle of passing prowess. He’s not quite at the level where he can singlehandedly raise the play of the receivers around him. However, when given weapons to work with, when given receivers he trusts, Kaep has shown he can absolutely control a game and put together a monster performance—even without a strong running game.

And therein lies the difference at the QB position: Kaep is a better quarterback with his weapons than Cam is with his.

from zimbio.com

Once again, you can make the case that these teams are equal at the RB position. You can say that DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert as a group are as good or better than Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon. You might be right. Still, Frank Gore is far and away, no argument whatsoever, the best running back that’s going to suit up for this game. He alone will affect this game more than the other five guys combined. Advantage 49ers.

I’ve already made my point about the pass catchers. Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis wipe the floor with a gimpy Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Greg Olsen.

I’m taking the 49ers offensive line over the Panthers as well. Both groups have been tremendous this season, but the Niners have two proven anchors at either end of the line, and absolute road-grading beasts in Mike Iupati and Alex Boone in the middle. The 49ers from a talent and continuity standpoint are capable of dominating any front seven in football on any given Sunday. I don’t think I can say that about the Panthers five linemen, regardless of how consistent they have been this season.

One area where I might have to concede the advantage to the Panthers is at defensive line. They led the league in sacks (60). Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy are tremendous edge rushers. Star Lotulelei is a load in the middle and was an absolute steal with the 14^th overall pick in this past draft. Dwan Edwards is solid inside as well, and Kawann Short is a very effective inside rusher. The Panthers’ defensive line is the real deal. On the other hand, Justin Smith, Ray McDonald and Glenn Dorsey are obviously nothing to scoff at. If the Panthers have an advantage here, it’s a small one.

from espn.com

I love Luke Kuechly. The guy is a beast, and he might be the best middle linebacker in football…not named NaVorro Bowman. I’m sorry, I know I have my 49ers glasses on and everything is a wonderful hazy hue of red and gold, but we are all watching the same NaVorro Bowman play football right? The guy is unbelievable, un-fucking-believable. He is so good that he overshadows Patrick Willis most games—you know, the guy that has been the consensus top linebacker in football the past half-decade. I know that this position group is getting attention above all others. There are going to be a lot of great linebackers on display in this contest, but none are playing better right now than NaVorro Bowman—who might be the best defensive player on earth at this moment in time.

I haven’t even said Aldon Smith’s or Ahmad Brooks’ name yet, and those guys combined for 3.5 sacks on Aaron Rodgers last game. And he only dropped back about 30 times! That’s pretty unbelievable stuff. Once again, throw the last game between these two teams out the window (when it could be argued, probably pretty strongly, our linebacking corps was outmatched by theirs) I’m giving the Niners the advantage at LB. Big-play-Bow is coming for you Cam!

The secondary is almost as easy to call as the receiving group was. The Niners win this one hands down. Eric Reid is playing at a level unknown to most rookie safeties, Donte Whitner is having the best year of his entire career, Tramaine Brock has been a revelation, Tarell Brown is just rock solid, and Perrish Cox played very effectively in last week’s game. If Carlos Rogers comes back this weekend, that’s just an added bonus to a group that is already playing at a very high level.

The Panthers secondary isn’t bad. In fact, they’re pretty damn good too. The individual names don’t jump out at you (except Captain Munnerlyn, that name always jumps out at you). As a whole, though, they are a pretty impressive group. They force turnovers and play very aggressively. Mike Mitchell in particular has raised the level of his game this season.

Still, I’d be being silly if I tried to claim, out of some misplaced desire to overvalue the 49ers' opponent in case we lose, that the Panthers are our equals in terms of talent in the secondary.

from zimbio.com

There’s the old adage, commonly used by Ray Lewis, that football is a game of three phases—offense, defense, and special teams—and that if you can win two of those three phases, you are probably going to win the game.

I can’t pretend to know too much about the Panthers’ special teams. I know Ted Ginn is an elite return man, even if he hasn’t housed one this season. He’s among the league’s best at turning field position. Ginn is a far superior return man to LaMichael James.

While I can’t pretend to know much about the Panthers’ special teams, I do know a lot about ours. Our coverage units are among the best in football, maybe second only to the Seahawks (who are ungodly good in their coverage units). Still, Ginn is a game changer as a return man—any 49ers fan worth his/her salt remembers that.

If the 49ers do go on to lose this game, I’d be willing to bet that special teams has something to do with it, and I’d be willing to further bet that Ted Ginn is the man responsible.

And yet, I don’t envision that happening. In fact, I think the more likely scenario is the 49ers win in all three phases of this game. They have the experience, they have the depth, and they have the talent to win on the road against a very good Panthers team in convincing fashion.

I certainly hope it happens, but if there’s one adage in football that will always, always stands the test of time it’s: Any given Sunday.

49ers 24, Panthers 16.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks: Taming the Beast

from seahawks.com

I would like to do a much longer preview, but I didn't have time today. If you don't know my rule, know I never bet against the 49ers, so you can safely assume I'm picking them to win this game.

I can write 10,000 words explaining to you why the offense will be better equipped to unlock the Seattle defense with Michael Crabtree on the field. But you can read that anywhere. As important as Crabtree's return is, I think it's possibly been overstated. Maybe not overstated actually, but his return has overshadowed other keys to the game.

from atlantablackstar.com

When it comes down to it, I truly believe (way deep down) that the 49ers playing their best are better than the Seahawks at their best. I think we have more weapons on offense, and I think that when Colin Kaepernick is in a rhythm and on his game (a big if) he is a better quarterback than Russell Wilson (who is undoubtedly a more polished, consistent and accomplished passer overall at this point).

I think our defense has the better front seven, I think they clearly have the better secondary, but overall I'd take the Niners' starting 11 on defense over the Seahawks' starting 11. Our four linebackers are unmatched in terms of talent and production; and I'd take their sure tackling, pressure on the quarterback, and ability to create turnovers on any play (passing or running) over the Seahawks' "legion of boom."

With the Seahawks away from CenturyLink, and the 49ers focused and motivated to play their best football, I think our best tops the Seahawks' best tomorrow. I think Frank Gore will run effectively enough, if not spectacularly, to give Kaepernick the balance he needs to have a solid passing day.

from nydailynews.com

I expect that when it's all said and done, we will say that Kaepernick won this game with his arm.

In the first meeting in Week 2, the 49er defense played strong from the start. By the end of the first quarter Russel Wilson's stat line looked like this: 0-6 for no yards, an interception, and a sack. That was in Seattle.

The offense single-handedly lost that game despite a stellar first half performance by the defense. Turnovers and a lack of offensive cohesion that caused short, ineffective drives put the defense in bad positions time and time again until they finally broke. It was inevitable. They played admirably though; much, much better than the 29 points scored against them would indicate. I expect more of the same in this game, but this time the Seahawks won't have the benefit of a cooperative crowd and Aldon Smith smacking an offensive lineman in the helmet for no reason to extend a drive like an idiot (knock on wood).

Our offense was actually more effective than the Seahawks early on in that game, and without a poor redzone decision by Kaepernick we would have taken an early (albeit minimal) lead. Kaepernick is more seasoned and more prepared at this stage of the season, and he will be more comfortable at home. I fully expect such boneheaded mistakes to be erased...or at least kept to a minimum.

The key is aggression. We need to score and score early and we need to keep the Seahawks off-balance offensively. We need to put pressure on them to throw it early and often.

The way to beat the Seahawks tomorrow is simple: stop Marshawn Lynch.

from topbet.eu

We have not stopped the "Beast" in our last three contests, and if he gets going for a fourth consecutive time the Seahawks have a very strong chance to do some damage against our defense. If we can remove Lynch from the equation and make the Seahawks a one-dimensional team, I'll take our pass rush against their offensive line any day. I'd also take our secondary over their receiving corps any day--especially without Percy Harvin.

Russell Wilson is going to work some magic and make plays only he can make. He's going to make you scratch your head in semi-disbelief and frustration, but I do not believe that he can pick apart the Niners secondary without some semblance of a threat of Lynch and the running game. A one-dimensional Seahawks team is a very beatable team, especially at the Stick.

Tame the Beast, and we can take this game.

I'm expecting that to happen.

27-19, 49ers.

from sfgate.com

NFL Week 14 Picks and Previews... and a Cliffhanger

Going for the magical 16-0 against the spread this week. Let's get to it.

Indianapolis (+6.5) over CINCINNATI

This game has more playoff implications than you might think. Both these teams are highly likely to end up as the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in the AFC, regardless of the outcome of this game. Normally, the difference between being the No. 3 seed as opposed to No. 4 seed is nominal. Not in this case. Wanting the higher seed isn’t even a product of trying to avoid the Broncos, as travelling to Foxboro is almost equally (maybe more) daunting. No, it’s that the No. 4 seed (likely the loser of this game) has to play the dangerous Kansas City Chiefs, while the No. 3 seed gets the draw of whatever mediocre team escapes with the No. 6 seed. If you think both teams aren’t aware of this, then you’d be mistaken. Andrew Luck, though I’m sure he’s only looking ahead “at the next game on the schedule,” knows full well that beating a Dolphins or Ravens team in Lucas Oil Stadium is hardly a mountainous obstacle, while the Chiefs would be a tricky proposition. I’m still picking Cincinnati to win this game—they are at home, have a very strong pass defense, and get a Colts team that is not playing its best football—but I have to take the points on this one. I think Luck and the Colts keep this one close. 27-23, Bengals.

GREEN BAY (off) over Atlanta

The spread is off for this game as of now; I believe because Aaron Rodgers’ status was still in question. He’s out, so I assume the spread will be your typical pick ‘em of Green Bay minus-3, because of the home-field advantage. Matt Flynn was terrible last week. The Falcons offense played very well against a fairly good (at least average) Buffalo defense last week on the road. I think the popular pick would be to go with the Falcons, with the belief that Flynn won’t keep pace with Ryan. I’m no fan of Flynn’s, and he was very poor (and his offensive line was poorer) last week indeed. Still, I’m less of a fan of the Falcons defense, which is just horrendous. It’s December, it’s in Lambeau, and the Packers have the better running game with Eddie Lacy and James Starks. They also have a superior defense (even if that side of the ball has been suspect as well, especially recently). Outdoors and in the cold, defense and the run-game are always at a premium. I’ll take the Packers. 23-20, Packers.

NEW ENGLAND (off) over Cleveland

I don’t rightfully know why this game is currently off. A Campbell-Weeden quarterback controversy? Is Campbell healthy? Does it really matter? I’m unsure. Either way, I’m sure the Patriots are going to be double-digit favorites—as they should be. As long as this spread is under 14, I’m taking the Pats. They are a far superior team, they're at home and a first-round bye, potentially a No. 1 seed, is on the line. Why draw the line at 14? Two touchdowns seems high, while 13 points seems reasonable for some semi-inexplicable reason. I think the Pats dominate, but Josh Gordon has been otherworldly, so there’s a chance that the Browns can make some noise. I don’t really seeing that happening though, for the same reasons mentioned above about GB-ATL. This game is outside, so the run game will be at a premium. The Patriots have a lot of trouble stopping the run, but the Browns can’t run the ball effectively anyways so it’s a wash. Following this line of thought, the Pats have a solid running game (provided they aren’t fumbling), but the Browns have a solid front seven, so let’s call that a wash. I’m willing to say Tom Brady is a touchdown and some change better than Campbell/Weeden. Two touchdowns? Maybe, maybe not. It’d be more difficult for me to forsake the points if they’re at 14 as opposed to 10. 30-16, Patriots.

Oakland (+2.5) over New York Jets

I don’t get it. I know the Jets have more wins, and I know they’re at home, and I’m not one to deny the importance of home-field advantage. That said, has Vegas been watching Geno Smith play football? He’s so bad, he has made the Oakland Raiders defense a viable starting option in fantasy...On the road...In the fantasy playoffs! I know the world of fantasy and the world of real-life football on the real-life gridiron are two totally different things, but this is one of those rare moments when worlds collide. I think the fantasy experts got it right on this one and Vegas is getting it wrong. Roll with Raiders. McGloin will do enough to put points on the board and put pressure on the Jets to throw it, and when they do…Look out. Charles Woodson feasts on rookie signal-callers. He’s going for a pick-six. Book it. You heard it here first. 24-16, Raiders.

PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) over Detroit

This is another moment where fantasy and the gridiron collide. For me at least. Last week was the turning point for me; I’ve bought in on Foles. I’m rolling with him over Cam Newton in my fantasy league. Call me a sucker, but 19-0 don’t lie. Going with some more traditional and sound reasoning for picking this game—it essentially amounts to a pick ‘em and the Eagles have the motivational advantage of needing a win to keep pace with the Cowboys. On the whole these two teams are very evenly matched. The Eagles are slightly worse overall defensively, but the Lions secondary is suspect to say the least, and suspect doesn’t win games on the road against big hitters like DeSean Jackson. The best reason to pick the Eagles here though comes down to quarterback play; Foles has a nice round zero next to interceptions, while Stafford has a fairly high number at 14. You can’t turn the ball over to good offenses on the road and expect to come away as winners. 34-30, Eagles.

Miami (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
The Phins are my AFC team and I can't abide by the Steelers so I'm taking the easy way out and letting my bias make this pick for me. These teams are pretty even, but I like the Dolphins to keep pace with the Ravens in the AFC Wild Card race, so I think they'll figure out a way to win. Not a lot of well reasoned analysis on this one. 24-21, Dolphins.

TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over Buffalo

Tampa Bay is favored to win a game: How far they’ve come! Seriously though, the Buccaneers have played some good football since Glennon took over. These two teams are fairly evenly matched in a big picture sense (for example, if I were doing Madden ratings, I’d have them both around 74). Unfortunately for the Bills, the matchup favors the Bucs. The Bills want to run it, and the Bucs stop the run extremely well. With Glennon under center the Bucs have a much more balanced offensive approach than the Bills, and I expect that to show up in the final score. 23-17, Buccaneers.

Kansas City (-3) over WASHINGTON

Both teams are in a slump, but whereas Washington’s slump is the result of dysfunction and general lack of quality, the Chiefs can blame the schedule. The Chiefs, as we now know for a fact, were a bit lucky to get to 9-0, but they are still a very quality team. You could make the argument Washington is lucky to have three wins. This is a simple matter of picking a quality team over a sub-mediocre team with very little risk—three points in this case is nothing; I expect if this game was at Arrowhead you’d be looking at the Chiefs being favored by at least a touchdown. Alex Smith is playing his best ball of the season; in his last five games he’s thrown nine touchdowns against just two interceptions for 1,166 yards. Washington’s defense is either-or. They can either load up against the run and give up the pass, or play the pass and give up the run. Smith’s improved play gives Kansas City the balance that Washington won’t be able to handle. 28-17, Chiefs.

BALTIMORE (-6.5) over Minnesota

This line moved from an even seven earlier in the week, and that half point actually gives me more confidence to go with the Ravens on this one. Before I continue with my reasoning, let me just say that if any game should be off this week, it should be this one. If I knew the status of Dennis Pitta and I knew he was healthy, I’d be willing to lay more than a touchdown on the Ravens. My friend, a Vikings fan, informed me that over the last few weeks the Vikings have been the top third-down defense in football. Did I take the time to look this up? Nope. I trust he’s right though, and you’ll have to trust my trust in him. Trust me, trusting him. The Ravens have a tough time extending drives, as their run game is so mediocre they’re consistently behind schedule on the down and distance, and because Flacco is sorely lacking for move-the-chains, possession type receivers. That is not a good combination going into a game with a defense that is getting off the field with ease. Having Pitta available and healthy would change the entire chemistry of the game for the Ravens offense. Still, I expect Ray Rice to run well enough against a Vikings defense that has been kind to opposing running backs, to say the least. That should be enough to cover at home, because the Ravens defense is built to stop the run—so I doubt Adrian Peterson tops 200 for a second consecutive week. Also, Matt Cassel is starting. So yeah, lay the points. 26-19, Ravens.

DENVER (-12) over Tennessee

Go ahead and re-read the Patriots and Browns preview again. This is a very similar situation. Fitzpatrick is better than any QB the Browns will field, but they don’t have a weapon like Josh Gordon either. The Titans' season dies on Sunday. 38-24, Broncos.

ARIZONA (-6.5) over St. Louis

The Cardinals are a superior team that is schematically and personnel-wise built to beat the Rams and they’re at home. This line may be a bit low. Zac Stacy has earned my respect and a small bit of adoration for almost single-handedly rehabilitating my fantasy season, but without both Jake Long and Scott Wells blocking for him, and against a very strong front seven, I don’t see him having a strong game to put it lightly. That puts the pressure on Kellen Clemens to throw the ball when everyone on the field knows he’s going to throw it. That means Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu will have an opportunity to make plays. That means the Rams will lose this game. Their defense isn’t good enough to carry them to victory alone, the Cardinals defense is. 31-16, Cardinals.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over New York Giants

I hate the Giants. I hate Eli Manning. Let my bias be clear. Still, this is another pick ‘em and I’ll take the home team with a hot QB in Philip Rivers over the road team with Eli the “Elite” Turnover Machine.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Carolina

Yet another pick ‘em game. This is far and away the most difficult game to call. We just saw the Saints fall apart at the hands of a great defense. They were slowed at home by a great 49ers defense three weeks ago. I don’t doubt the ability of the Carolina defense to at least keep this game close, even if the Saints are averaging over 30 points per game at home. I also don’t doubt Cam Newton’s ability to keep pace with Drew Brees. That Panthers offense has been hitting on all cylinders since putting up a 10-spot against the Niners. There’s really not a lot to go on in terms of matchups and statistics. What we do know is that the Saints were just embarrassed at the hands of the Seahawks, and they know they need to win this game to have any chance of hosting a playoff game. Even after last week’s debacle, I’m not willing to bet against a highly focused, highly motivated Drew Brees and Sean Payton at this juncture. They’ve been there and done it. Newton and Rivera have not…yet. 31-27, Saints.

Dallas (+1) over CHICAGO

A fantasy feast for Monday Night Football. You could argue this game has bigger playoff implications for the Bears, because if they lose they can basically kiss goodbye any hopes at a miracle playoff run. Dallas could hypothetically lose this game and be in fine shape, as a win against the Eagles in Jerry’s World in Week 17 would essentially lock up the division regardless of the happenings of this week. But…You’ve got to think the Cowboys need this game worse than the Bears do. They cannot drop a game behind the Eagles with three left to play. The media would have a field day. You know it, I knowit, the Eagles know it and the Cowboys sure as shit know it. They’re on the national stage, playing an average team without its starting quarterback. If they don’t win this game, you can start engraving the tombstone of the 2013 Cowboys. I have little faith in them over the long haul, but I have faith the Bears defense will be so bad against the run that the Cowboys will be balanced on offense basically by default. I’ll take Romo over McCown in a shootout. 34-30, Cowboys.

What, no Niners?

Like I could fit them into this column. They get a whole one of their own. Tomorrow. Check back and enjoy your football!


**UPDATE**
Severe weather is going to affect at least a few games (PIT v MIA, CIN v IND for example). It's the season's first severe weather games (besides the Week 1 & 2 thunderstorms) so it's hard to predict how teams are going to respond. That said, it might be worth going with the home teams in those scenarios, as it's difficult to see an indoor team (IND) and a warm weather team (MIA) performing particularly well in the snow. I'm not going to change my picks, but I think lower scores are to be expected than my original predictions.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans: Thursday Night Football Preview & Pick

from jaguarsgab.com

I was planning on posting the entire slate of Week 14 picks and previews, but stuff got in the way so I’m just going to go keep in minimal today and do the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans game. Tomorrow (maybe) I’ll get to the other 15 games, with a special look to the 49ers and Seahawks showdown, of course.

*line from Yahoo Sports*

JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Houston

The Jaguars got a win in Houston just a couple weeks ago, but that’s hardly the reason for this pick. This is just a simple matter of Houston still being overvalued based on preseason expectations. Both these teams are garbage. I’m tempted to pick Houston, even though this game is in Jacksonville and the Texans are three point favorites, but it’s only a temptation.

It’s a temptation based on all the times I expected the Texans to actually show up and play good football early on in the season. It’s a temptation to pick against a Jaguars team I’ve routinely called talentless and bad. They are talentless and bad, but the Texans are equally bad (if not quite equally talentless). The difference here is that Jacksonville has points in hand at home, and they are still playing with fight.

The Texans are a group of punchless sob-artists that feel bad for themselves. They have maybe half-a-dozen guys on the team playing with some actual urgency and fire. The ones I can name; Andre Johnson because he’s a professional with pride, J.J. Watt because he’s a professional with pride, Ben Tate because he’s looking for a big contract in the offseason, and Case Keenum because he’s trying to prove he should have a shot to compete with Teddy Bridgewater in training camp. And the Texans will be drafting Bridgewater, because they will lose this game.

The Jaguars offense has been better of late, but that’s really not saying much. The bar was set about as low as it could be set. The Texans defense, which had been playing well through the first half despite the lack of any semblance of help from the offense, has started to sink to the dreary level of its offense. The Jaguars should be able to put up some points on this defense, enough to outscore a Keenum-led Texans squad. Expect a solid night from MJD. I just hope, for my fantasy team’s sake, that Andre Johnson gets in the endzone at some point.

20-16, Jaguars. 

NFL Week 13 Retrospective: The Playoff Fog Begins to Clear

from centurylinkfield.com

There’s only one-quarter of the season left to play, so instead of doing a full on game-by-game review, let’s focus on those games that had major playoff implications.

It already seems like weeks ago, but the Thanksgiving games were actually a part of Week 13. The Lions blowing out the Packers essentially gives them the NFC North and a playoff berth. They have a game-and-a-half lead over the Packers, and what basically amounts to a two game lead—because they have won both meetings between them—over the Bears. Assuming the Lions can win two of the next four, they should have the division well in hand.

They also deserve the division, as they’re clearly the best team playing up north right now. I mean, you can make the argument that with Aaron Rodgers the Packers are the cream of the crop, and it would be a very legitimate argument, but the fact of the matter is that they haven’t and still don’t have him, so the Lions very much deserve to host a playoff game; a game that will likely be a loss at the hands of the 49ers (knock on wood).

Speaking of the 49ers, let’s talk about the Seahawks (throwin’ curveballs round here). I don’t want to take anything away from them and how well they played against the Saints on Monday night. I hate them, but I’m not blind—they’re really, really good. I thought losing Browner and Thurmond would cause them some difficulties on the back end, and I’ve talked down their run defense all season (and rightfully so, they’ve been flat out dominated in the run games at times), but that was the single best defensive performance of any team all season. They didn’t just slow Drew Brees and the Saints; they completely and utterly shut them down. I know when I’m wrong, and I was wrong to think that Brees and Payton could walk into Seattle unfazed. They were fazed—like Jimi Hendrix on a rough night fazed.

Like I said, I don’t want to take anything away from them… but I am going to take something away from them, something that could potentially be seen as a compliment. Their home-field advantage—can anyone actually explain it? They have been a good, but not great, road team this season. They’ve come out winners in some mind-boggling meltdowns against bad teams on the road (the Texans come to mind immediately). Still, good teams take advantage of their opportunities, and they were handed multiple opportunities to steal games late, and have taken advantage of every single one.

But let’s talk about their home-field advantage for a minute—a home-field advantage they will almost undoubtedly have all the way through the playoffs. What is going on at the Clink? I don’t understand. I don’t understand how perfectly capable football players suddenly and completely fall apart when they walk into that building. False starts, delay of games, offsides I can understand. I can tolerate those kinds of mistakes. It’s loud. Absurdly loud. Those sorts of mistakes are common in loud stadiums across the league. They’re common in Kansas City—which nearly matches Seattle for loudness.

It’s not just the noise though. It can’t be. Nothing even remotely similar happens to teams that play in other loud stadiums—not in KC, not in New Orleans, not at Lambeau, or the Georgia Dome (when Atlanta was relevant). Players forget how to play the game intelligently when they go into Seattle. You can see it at every level of an offense and defense. Lineman hold and miss blocks; running backs don’t see holes; wide receivers don’t get into and out of their breaks with the right timing; safeties get lost in space; linebackers over pursue constantly; ends rush with zero discipline. Some of it is simply good play calling by Darrel Bevell on the offensive side, but there’s something ineffable that just can’t be accounted for.

Teams look like they are completely unprepared every single time they step on that field. The single exception this season—the Buccaneers oddly enough.

I just don’t get it. I’d like an explanation that doesn’t begin and end with noise. I’m not buying it. I’m not saying they have some sort of voodoo magic either, but I don’t understand how good football players walk onto that field and just lose their damn minds. I don’t understand how one of the most brilliant offensive minds has no answer at all for a very schematically sound, but fairly schematically simple, defense. It’s beyond reason. I’m confused.

So, yeah, looks like if the Niners have any chance whatsoever to return to the Super Bowl we’re going to have to win in Seattle. But that’s for a whole different column.

Still, the biggest story of the week is Seattle’s blow-out victory over the Saints. The importance of that win can’t be overstated. It’s huge, absolutely huge. It gives them the best chance of any team in football to gain entrance to the Super Bowl, because they now have the luxury of not playing their best football and still winning two straight playoff games, because there is a very real possibility, an almost unavoidable certainty, that whoever they play will not be playing their best ball either. It’s going to take a team’s very best performance, mixed with a down game from the Seahawks to come away with a road win in Seattle. It’s a longshot to say the least.

from usatoday.com

The Broncos also basically booked a ticket for a bye, but they haven’t quite sealed home-field for the playoffs. This is almost as big for them as it is for Seattle, but for a different reason. The Broncos have to get the No. 1 seed, because they can’t envy a rematch against the Patriots in Foxboro. Not at all.

Peyton is slightly screwed either way; he’s going to have to play in freezing cold weather regardless. But at least in Denver he’ll have the crowd behind him and against Brady, and the other 52 players on his team will have the advantage of being moderately more used to the altitude. They need to get to 14-2 and lock up that first seed, no doubt.

The Patriots almost handed the Broncos the first seed with that less-than-good performance against the Texans. [I’m taking full credit for calling that by the way. I’ll own up to my idiocy thinking the Saints stood a chance in Seattle, but I want my credit for going 8-4-1 ATS. That’s not too shabby.] The Patriots are not as good as the Broncos. That’s almost abundantly clear. But the Patriots are better than the Broncos at home in the cold; what’s new in the Brady-Manning narrative?

And honestly, those are the teams that are going to be vying for the AFC when it’s all said and done. If the Bengals could grab a bye, I might be able to get behind them, but expecting three straight performances of good ball from Andy Dalton? Don’t make me laugh.

Dalton had an extra week to prepare for a Chargers defense that has basically been carved up by virtually every opposing passer—going back to week 1 against Matt Schaub (yep, Matt Schaub)—and he came away with a 14-23/190/1/1 line. I could have done that. There’s a zero percent chance that he makes it through the Chiefs/Ravens/Dolphins and then Broncos and Patriots (on the road) consecutively. Zero.

I also hate writing off Andrew Luck. I have no problem writing off the other 52 members of the Colts, because they’re a mediocre team on the whole. But Luck? I don’t like to bet against that guy. He’s a big-time QB. I’d probably take him second of any signal-caller in the NFL to win me one game (behind only Aaron Rodgers). The Colts are the opposite story of the Bengals; I have no issues thinking Luck can put together three strong performances, I just highly doubt the rest of that team can rise to his level in consecutive games to make it to the Super Bowl.

The defense was much better against the Titans. I have to give them credit for that. They definitely righted the ship on that side of the ball (for that game at least), but they had only 73 rushing yards on 19 carries from the Brown-Richardson duo. 35 of those yards came on seven carries in the fourth quarter; meaning that in the first three quarters they had a total of 38 yards from their backs. Luck had 42 rushing yards on five scrambles by the way; far and away their most productive rusher.

Andrew Luck can’t be expected to win with no help from the run game when their receiving corps is composed of T.Y. Hilton, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Lavon Brazil. Especially when you never know what kind of effort you’re going to get from the defense.

The Chiefs aren’t a legitimate threat to win the AFC either unfortunately. They have yet to put together a game of great football on both sides of the ball. Their defense has fallen off at an astonishing pace—even given the injuries of Houston and Hali. Marcus Cooper was finally exposed for the 7^th-round rookie he is. And the Chiefs simply aren’t a team that can afford to have a bad or even average game from either its offense or defense and still come out as a victor against good teams in the playoffs.

The other wild card? Don’t make me laugh. The Ravens could do the whole miracle run thing again, making them the official AFC version of the Giants, but let’s not act like we can expect or predict that. If it happens, then oh well, it happens. But they aren’t a good enough team to expect anything more than a playoff berth from. With Ray Rice struggling, the Ravens don’t have enough balance on offense to keep pace with the big offenses of the Patriots and Broncos. Simple as that.

The Dolphins could get a win against the Bengals or Colts (they’ve already done it), but beyond that you’re looking at a real long shot. They’re not good enough to take the AFC. Simple as that.

I’m capping the AFC race for the sixth seed with those two teams. I think (and I hinted as much previously) that those two teams were the best bets for that spot, and they took a big step in getting to 6-6, watching everyone else fall back a game to 5-7 (Titans, Chargers, Steelers, Jets).

Let’s end the discussion with my two favorite games of the week.

from zimbio.com

The Eagles came through with a HUGE win over the Cardinals. In Foles I trust, in Palmer I don’t. I think if we learned anything from the game though, it’s that Chip Kelly is really starting to adjust to the NFL way of life. He called some stupid plays—the wildcat (that he said “wasn’t” a wildcat) play that Brad Smith fumbled with goal-to-go certainly comes to mind—but he and Pat Shurmur really devised a fantastic game plan against a very good Cardinals defense. Patrick Peterson, as he usually does, blanketed their top receiver in DeSean Jackson, so the Eagles attacked the Cardinals where they’re weakest—throwing the ball continually to the tight ends. Simple but brilliant. And they never gave up on the run, even when it wasn’t at its most effective. Solid play calling on that side of the ball.

And whereas I expected the secondary of the Cardinals to make some big plays (PP7 actually did, only to have his interception wiped away by penalty), the Eagles secondary took advantage of Palmer early and often, eventually coming away with a big pass break-up on fourth down to seal up the game. Good football all around by the Eagles.

from sfgate.com

Definitely can’t forget about the Niners. I feel like I can basically copy-paste what I wrote last week in the recap, and just replace “Redskins” with “Rams.” The defense was incredible again, slowing down one of the hottest running backs in football and making life difficult for Kellen Clemens all day.

The offense was average again, but still improving. The Rams defense is no pushover, and while I expected much more from Gore and the running game, it was encouraging to see the passing offense continue on the upswing. Kaepernick wasn’t at his best, but he was good enough, and that’s all that matters in a game you can’t afford to lose.

The big news is that Crabs is back. What can I say that hasn’t already been said? I’m stoked, you’re stoked, he’s stoked, Boldin is stoked, Vernon is stoked, Kaep is probably squealing into his pillow at night like a flattered 13-year-old girl he’s so stoked.

He’s going to be the key to opening up this offense, and if the Niners have any chance at all of making it back to Super Bowl, it’ll be because he’s healthy and returns to 2012 form. Gotta love that he was able to beat single coverage on the outside with such ease on that double-move for 60 yards in just his first game back. It made me tear up with joy a little bit.

And with that I bid you adieu. Tomorrow I’ll try to get a Week 14 preview in. Go Niners.