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| from centurylinkfield.com |
There’s only one-quarter of the season left to play, so
instead of doing a full on game-by-game review, let’s focus on those games that
had major playoff implications.
It already seems like weeks ago, but the Thanksgiving games
were actually a part of Week 13. The Lions blowing out the Packers essentially
gives them the NFC North and a playoff berth. They have a game-and-a-half lead
over the Packers, and what basically amounts to a two game lead—because they
have won both meetings between them—over the Bears. Assuming the Lions can win
two of the next four, they should have the division well in hand.
They also deserve the division, as they’re clearly the best
team playing up north right now. I mean, you can make the argument that with
Aaron Rodgers the Packers are the cream of the crop, and it would be a very
legitimate argument, but the fact of the matter is that they haven’t and still
don’t have him, so the Lions very much deserve to host a playoff game; a game that will
likely be a loss at the hands of the 49ers (knock on wood).
Speaking of the 49ers, let’s talk about the Seahawks
(throwin’ curveballs round here). I don’t want to take anything away from them
and how well they played against the Saints on Monday night. I hate them, but I’m
not blind—they’re really, really good. I thought losing Browner and Thurmond
would cause them some difficulties on the back end, and I’ve talked down their
run defense all season (and rightfully so, they’ve been flat out dominated in
the run games at times), but that was the single best defensive performance of
any team all season. They didn’t just slow Drew Brees and the Saints; they
completely and utterly shut them down. I know when I’m wrong, and I was wrong
to think that Brees and Payton could walk into Seattle unfazed. They were
fazed—like Jimi Hendrix on a rough night fazed.
Like I said, I don’t want to take anything away from them…
but I am going to take something away from them, something that could
potentially be seen as a compliment. Their home-field advantage—can anyone
actually explain it? They have been a good, but not great, road team this
season. They’ve come out winners in some mind-boggling meltdowns against bad
teams on the road (the Texans come to mind immediately). Still, good teams take
advantage of their opportunities, and they were handed multiple opportunities
to steal games late, and have taken advantage of every single one.
But let’s talk about their home-field advantage for a
minute—a home-field advantage they will almost undoubtedly have all the way
through the playoffs. What is going on at the Clink? I don’t understand. I don’t
understand how perfectly capable football players suddenly and completely fall
apart when they walk into that building. False starts, delay of games, offsides
I can understand. I can tolerate those kinds of mistakes. It’s loud. Absurdly
loud. Those sorts of mistakes are common in loud stadiums across the league.
They’re common in Kansas City—which nearly matches Seattle for loudness.
It’s not just the noise though. It can’t be. Nothing even
remotely similar happens to teams that play in other loud stadiums—not in KC,
not in New Orleans, not at Lambeau, or the Georgia Dome (when Atlanta was
relevant). Players forget how to play the game intelligently when they go into
Seattle. You can see it at every level of an offense and defense. Lineman hold
and miss blocks; running backs don’t see holes; wide receivers don’t get into
and out of their breaks with the right timing; safeties get lost in space;
linebackers over pursue constantly;
ends rush with zero discipline. Some of it is simply good play calling by
Darrel Bevell on the offensive side, but there’s something ineffable that just
can’t be accounted for.
Teams look like they are completely unprepared every single
time they step on that field. The single exception this season—the Buccaneers
oddly enough.
I just don’t get it. I’d like an explanation that doesn’t
begin and end with noise. I’m not buying it. I’m not saying they have some sort
of voodoo magic either, but I don’t understand how good football players walk
onto that field and just lose their damn minds. I don’t understand how one of
the most brilliant offensive minds has no
answer at all for a very schematically sound, but fairly schematically
simple, defense. It’s beyond reason. I’m confused.
So, yeah, looks like if the Niners have any chance whatsoever
to return to the Super Bowl we’re going to have to win in Seattle. But that’s
for a whole different column.
Still, the biggest story of the week is Seattle’s blow-out
victory over the Saints. The importance of that win can’t be overstated. It’s
huge, absolutely huge. It gives them the best chance of any team in football to
gain entrance to the Super Bowl, because they now have the luxury of not
playing their best football and still winning two straight playoff games,
because there is a very real possibility, an almost unavoidable certainty, that
whoever they play will not be playing their best ball either. It’s going to
take a team’s very best performance, mixed with a down game from the Seahawks to
come away with a road win in Seattle. It’s a longshot to say the least.
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| from usatoday.com |
The Broncos also basically booked a ticket for a bye, but
they haven’t quite sealed home-field for the playoffs. This is almost as big
for them as it is for Seattle, but for a different reason. The Broncos have to
get the No. 1 seed, because they can’t envy a rematch against the Patriots in
Foxboro. Not at all.
Peyton is slightly screwed either way; he’s going to have to
play in freezing cold weather regardless. But at least in Denver he’ll have the
crowd behind him and against Brady, and the other 52 players on his team will
have the advantage of being moderately more used to the altitude. They need to
get to 14-2 and lock up that first seed, no doubt.
The Patriots almost handed the Broncos the first seed with
that less-than-good performance against the Texans. [I’m taking full credit for
calling that by the way. I’ll own up to my idiocy thinking the Saints stood a
chance in Seattle, but I want my credit for going 8-4-1 ATS. That’s not too
shabby.] The Patriots are not as good as the Broncos. That’s almost abundantly
clear. But the Patriots are better than the Broncos at home in the cold; what’s
new in the Brady-Manning narrative?
And honestly, those are the teams that are going to be vying
for the AFC when it’s all said and done. If the Bengals could grab a bye, I
might be able to get behind them, but expecting three straight performances of
good ball from Andy Dalton? Don’t make me laugh.
Dalton had an extra week to prepare for a Chargers defense
that has basically been carved up by virtually every opposing passer—going back
to week 1 against Matt Schaub (yep,
Matt Schaub)—and he came away with a 14-23/190/1/1 line. I could have done
that. There’s a zero percent chance that he makes it through the Chiefs/Ravens/Dolphins
and then Broncos and Patriots (on the road) consecutively. Zero.
I also hate writing off Andrew Luck. I have no problem
writing off the other 52 members of the Colts, because they’re a mediocre team
on the whole. But Luck? I don’t like to bet against that guy. He’s a big-time
QB. I’d probably take him second of any signal-caller in the NFL to win me one
game (behind only Aaron Rodgers). The Colts are the opposite story of the
Bengals; I have no issues thinking Luck can put together three strong
performances, I just highly doubt the rest of that team can rise to his level
in consecutive games to make it to the Super Bowl.
The defense was much better against the Titans. I have to
give them credit for that. They definitely righted the ship on that side of the
ball (for that game at least), but they had only 73 rushing yards on 19 carries
from the Brown-Richardson duo. 35 of those yards came on seven carries in the
fourth quarter; meaning that in the first three quarters they had a total of 38
yards from their backs. Luck had 42 rushing yards on five scrambles by the way;
far and away their most productive rusher.
Andrew Luck can’t be expected to win with no help from the
run game when their receiving corps is composed of T.Y. Hilton, Darrius
Heyward-Bey and Lavon Brazil. Especially when you never know what kind of
effort you’re going to get from the defense.
The Chiefs aren’t a legitimate threat to win the AFC either
unfortunately. They have yet to put together a game of great football on both sides
of the ball. Their defense has fallen off at an astonishing pace—even given the
injuries of Houston and Hali. Marcus Cooper was finally exposed for the 7th-round
rookie he is. And the Chiefs simply aren’t a team that can afford to have a bad
or even average game from either its offense or defense and still come out as a
victor against good teams in the playoffs.
The other wild card? Don’t make me laugh. The Ravens could
do the whole miracle run thing again, making them the official AFC version of
the Giants, but let’s not act like we can expect or predict that. If it
happens, then oh well, it happens. But they aren’t a good enough team to expect
anything more than a playoff berth from. With Ray Rice struggling, the Ravens
don’t have enough balance on offense to keep pace with the big offenses of the
Patriots and Broncos. Simple as that.
The Dolphins could get a win against the Bengals or Colts
(they’ve already done it), but beyond that you’re looking at a real long shot.
They’re not good enough to take the AFC. Simple as that.
I’m capping the AFC race for the sixth seed with those two
teams. I think (and I hinted as much previously) that those two teams were the
best bets for that spot, and they took a big step in getting to 6-6, watching
everyone else fall back a game to 5-7 (Titans, Chargers, Steelers, Jets).
Let’s end the discussion with my two favorite games of the
week.
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| from zimbio.com |
The Eagles came through with a HUGE win over the Cardinals.
In Foles I trust, in Palmer I don’t. I think if we learned anything from the
game though, it’s that Chip Kelly is really starting to adjust to the NFL way
of life. He called some stupid plays—the wildcat (that he said “wasn’t” a wildcat) play that Brad Smith fumbled with goal-to-go certainly
comes to mind—but he and Pat Shurmur really devised a fantastic game plan
against a very good Cardinals defense. Patrick Peterson, as he usually does,
blanketed their top receiver in DeSean Jackson, so the Eagles attacked the Cardinals
where they’re weakest—throwing the ball continually to the tight ends. Simple
but brilliant. And they never gave up on the run, even when it wasn’t at its
most effective. Solid play calling on that side of the ball.
And whereas I expected the secondary of the Cardinals to
make some big plays (PP7 actually did, only to have his interception wiped away
by penalty), the Eagles secondary took advantage of Palmer early and often,
eventually coming away with a big pass break-up on fourth down to seal up the
game. Good football all around by the Eagles.
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| from sfgate.com |
Definitely can’t forget about the Niners. I feel like I can
basically copy-paste what I wrote last week in the recap, and just replace “Redskins”
with “Rams.” The defense was incredible again, slowing down one of the hottest
running backs in football and making life difficult for Kellen Clemens all day.
The offense was average again, but still improving. The Rams
defense is no pushover, and while I expected much more from Gore and the running
game, it was encouraging to see the passing offense continue on the upswing.
Kaepernick wasn’t at his best, but he was good enough, and that’s all that
matters in a game you can’t afford to lose.
The big news is that Crabs is back. What can I say that hasn’t
already been said? I’m stoked, you’re stoked, he’s stoked, Boldin is stoked,
Vernon is stoked, Kaep is probably squealing into his pillow at night like a
flattered 13-year-old girl he’s so stoked.
He’s going to be the key to opening up this offense, and if
the Niners have any chance at all of making it back to Super Bowl, it’ll be
because he’s healthy and returns to 2012 form. Gotta love that he was able to
beat single coverage on the outside with such ease on that double-move for 60
yards in just his first game back. It made me tear up with joy a little bit.
And with that I bid you adieu. Tomorrow I’ll try to get a
Week 14 preview in. Go Niners.
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