NFL Week 14 Picks and Previews... and a Cliffhanger

Going for the magical 16-0 against the spread this week. Let's get to it.

Indianapolis (+6.5) over CINCINNATI

This game has more playoff implications than you might think. Both these teams are highly likely to end up as the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in the AFC, regardless of the outcome of this game. Normally, the difference between being the No. 3 seed as opposed to No. 4 seed is nominal. Not in this case. Wanting the higher seed isn’t even a product of trying to avoid the Broncos, as travelling to Foxboro is almost equally (maybe more) daunting. No, it’s that the No. 4 seed (likely the loser of this game) has to play the dangerous Kansas City Chiefs, while the No. 3 seed gets the draw of whatever mediocre team escapes with the No. 6 seed. If you think both teams aren’t aware of this, then you’d be mistaken. Andrew Luck, though I’m sure he’s only looking ahead “at the next game on the schedule,” knows full well that beating a Dolphins or Ravens team in Lucas Oil Stadium is hardly a mountainous obstacle, while the Chiefs would be a tricky proposition. I’m still picking Cincinnati to win this game—they are at home, have a very strong pass defense, and get a Colts team that is not playing its best football—but I have to take the points on this one. I think Luck and the Colts keep this one close. 27-23, Bengals.

GREEN BAY (off) over Atlanta

The spread is off for this game as of now; I believe because Aaron Rodgers’ status was still in question. He’s out, so I assume the spread will be your typical pick ‘em of Green Bay minus-3, because of the home-field advantage. Matt Flynn was terrible last week. The Falcons offense played very well against a fairly good (at least average) Buffalo defense last week on the road. I think the popular pick would be to go with the Falcons, with the belief that Flynn won’t keep pace with Ryan. I’m no fan of Flynn’s, and he was very poor (and his offensive line was poorer) last week indeed. Still, I’m less of a fan of the Falcons defense, which is just horrendous. It’s December, it’s in Lambeau, and the Packers have the better running game with Eddie Lacy and James Starks. They also have a superior defense (even if that side of the ball has been suspect as well, especially recently). Outdoors and in the cold, defense and the run-game are always at a premium. I’ll take the Packers. 23-20, Packers.

NEW ENGLAND (off) over Cleveland

I don’t rightfully know why this game is currently off. A Campbell-Weeden quarterback controversy? Is Campbell healthy? Does it really matter? I’m unsure. Either way, I’m sure the Patriots are going to be double-digit favorites—as they should be. As long as this spread is under 14, I’m taking the Pats. They are a far superior team, they're at home and a first-round bye, potentially a No. 1 seed, is on the line. Why draw the line at 14? Two touchdowns seems high, while 13 points seems reasonable for some semi-inexplicable reason. I think the Pats dominate, but Josh Gordon has been otherworldly, so there’s a chance that the Browns can make some noise. I don’t really seeing that happening though, for the same reasons mentioned above about GB-ATL. This game is outside, so the run game will be at a premium. The Patriots have a lot of trouble stopping the run, but the Browns can’t run the ball effectively anyways so it’s a wash. Following this line of thought, the Pats have a solid running game (provided they aren’t fumbling), but the Browns have a solid front seven, so let’s call that a wash. I’m willing to say Tom Brady is a touchdown and some change better than Campbell/Weeden. Two touchdowns? Maybe, maybe not. It’d be more difficult for me to forsake the points if they’re at 14 as opposed to 10. 30-16, Patriots.

Oakland (+2.5) over New York Jets

I don’t get it. I know the Jets have more wins, and I know they’re at home, and I’m not one to deny the importance of home-field advantage. That said, has Vegas been watching Geno Smith play football? He’s so bad, he has made the Oakland Raiders defense a viable starting option in fantasy...On the road...In the fantasy playoffs! I know the world of fantasy and the world of real-life football on the real-life gridiron are two totally different things, but this is one of those rare moments when worlds collide. I think the fantasy experts got it right on this one and Vegas is getting it wrong. Roll with Raiders. McGloin will do enough to put points on the board and put pressure on the Jets to throw it, and when they do…Look out. Charles Woodson feasts on rookie signal-callers. He’s going for a pick-six. Book it. You heard it here first. 24-16, Raiders.

PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) over Detroit

This is another moment where fantasy and the gridiron collide. For me at least. Last week was the turning point for me; I’ve bought in on Foles. I’m rolling with him over Cam Newton in my fantasy league. Call me a sucker, but 19-0 don’t lie. Going with some more traditional and sound reasoning for picking this game—it essentially amounts to a pick ‘em and the Eagles have the motivational advantage of needing a win to keep pace with the Cowboys. On the whole these two teams are very evenly matched. The Eagles are slightly worse overall defensively, but the Lions secondary is suspect to say the least, and suspect doesn’t win games on the road against big hitters like DeSean Jackson. The best reason to pick the Eagles here though comes down to quarterback play; Foles has a nice round zero next to interceptions, while Stafford has a fairly high number at 14. You can’t turn the ball over to good offenses on the road and expect to come away as winners. 34-30, Eagles.

Miami (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
The Phins are my AFC team and I can't abide by the Steelers so I'm taking the easy way out and letting my bias make this pick for me. These teams are pretty even, but I like the Dolphins to keep pace with the Ravens in the AFC Wild Card race, so I think they'll figure out a way to win. Not a lot of well reasoned analysis on this one. 24-21, Dolphins.

TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over Buffalo

Tampa Bay is favored to win a game: How far they’ve come! Seriously though, the Buccaneers have played some good football since Glennon took over. These two teams are fairly evenly matched in a big picture sense (for example, if I were doing Madden ratings, I’d have them both around 74). Unfortunately for the Bills, the matchup favors the Bucs. The Bills want to run it, and the Bucs stop the run extremely well. With Glennon under center the Bucs have a much more balanced offensive approach than the Bills, and I expect that to show up in the final score. 23-17, Buccaneers.

Kansas City (-3) over WASHINGTON

Both teams are in a slump, but whereas Washington’s slump is the result of dysfunction and general lack of quality, the Chiefs can blame the schedule. The Chiefs, as we now know for a fact, were a bit lucky to get to 9-0, but they are still a very quality team. You could make the argument Washington is lucky to have three wins. This is a simple matter of picking a quality team over a sub-mediocre team with very little risk—three points in this case is nothing; I expect if this game was at Arrowhead you’d be looking at the Chiefs being favored by at least a touchdown. Alex Smith is playing his best ball of the season; in his last five games he’s thrown nine touchdowns against just two interceptions for 1,166 yards. Washington’s defense is either-or. They can either load up against the run and give up the pass, or play the pass and give up the run. Smith’s improved play gives Kansas City the balance that Washington won’t be able to handle. 28-17, Chiefs.

BALTIMORE (-6.5) over Minnesota

This line moved from an even seven earlier in the week, and that half point actually gives me more confidence to go with the Ravens on this one. Before I continue with my reasoning, let me just say that if any game should be off this week, it should be this one. If I knew the status of Dennis Pitta and I knew he was healthy, I’d be willing to lay more than a touchdown on the Ravens. My friend, a Vikings fan, informed me that over the last few weeks the Vikings have been the top third-down defense in football. Did I take the time to look this up? Nope. I trust he’s right though, and you’ll have to trust my trust in him. Trust me, trusting him. The Ravens have a tough time extending drives, as their run game is so mediocre they’re consistently behind schedule on the down and distance, and because Flacco is sorely lacking for move-the-chains, possession type receivers. That is not a good combination going into a game with a defense that is getting off the field with ease. Having Pitta available and healthy would change the entire chemistry of the game for the Ravens offense. Still, I expect Ray Rice to run well enough against a Vikings defense that has been kind to opposing running backs, to say the least. That should be enough to cover at home, because the Ravens defense is built to stop the run—so I doubt Adrian Peterson tops 200 for a second consecutive week. Also, Matt Cassel is starting. So yeah, lay the points. 26-19, Ravens.

DENVER (-12) over Tennessee

Go ahead and re-read the Patriots and Browns preview again. This is a very similar situation. Fitzpatrick is better than any QB the Browns will field, but they don’t have a weapon like Josh Gordon either. The Titans' season dies on Sunday. 38-24, Broncos.

ARIZONA (-6.5) over St. Louis

The Cardinals are a superior team that is schematically and personnel-wise built to beat the Rams and they’re at home. This line may be a bit low. Zac Stacy has earned my respect and a small bit of adoration for almost single-handedly rehabilitating my fantasy season, but without both Jake Long and Scott Wells blocking for him, and against a very strong front seven, I don’t see him having a strong game to put it lightly. That puts the pressure on Kellen Clemens to throw the ball when everyone on the field knows he’s going to throw it. That means Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu will have an opportunity to make plays. That means the Rams will lose this game. Their defense isn’t good enough to carry them to victory alone, the Cardinals defense is. 31-16, Cardinals.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over New York Giants

I hate the Giants. I hate Eli Manning. Let my bias be clear. Still, this is another pick ‘em and I’ll take the home team with a hot QB in Philip Rivers over the road team with Eli the “Elite” Turnover Machine.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Carolina

Yet another pick ‘em game. This is far and away the most difficult game to call. We just saw the Saints fall apart at the hands of a great defense. They were slowed at home by a great 49ers defense three weeks ago. I don’t doubt the ability of the Carolina defense to at least keep this game close, even if the Saints are averaging over 30 points per game at home. I also don’t doubt Cam Newton’s ability to keep pace with Drew Brees. That Panthers offense has been hitting on all cylinders since putting up a 10-spot against the Niners. There’s really not a lot to go on in terms of matchups and statistics. What we do know is that the Saints were just embarrassed at the hands of the Seahawks, and they know they need to win this game to have any chance of hosting a playoff game. Even after last week’s debacle, I’m not willing to bet against a highly focused, highly motivated Drew Brees and Sean Payton at this juncture. They’ve been there and done it. Newton and Rivera have not…yet. 31-27, Saints.

Dallas (+1) over CHICAGO

A fantasy feast for Monday Night Football. You could argue this game has bigger playoff implications for the Bears, because if they lose they can basically kiss goodbye any hopes at a miracle playoff run. Dallas could hypothetically lose this game and be in fine shape, as a win against the Eagles in Jerry’s World in Week 17 would essentially lock up the division regardless of the happenings of this week. But…You’ve got to think the Cowboys need this game worse than the Bears do. They cannot drop a game behind the Eagles with three left to play. The media would have a field day. You know it, I knowit, the Eagles know it and the Cowboys sure as shit know it. They’re on the national stage, playing an average team without its starting quarterback. If they don’t win this game, you can start engraving the tombstone of the 2013 Cowboys. I have little faith in them over the long haul, but I have faith the Bears defense will be so bad against the run that the Cowboys will be balanced on offense basically by default. I’ll take Romo over McCown in a shootout. 34-30, Cowboys.

What, no Niners?

Like I could fit them into this column. They get a whole one of their own. Tomorrow. Check back and enjoy your football!


**UPDATE**
Severe weather is going to affect at least a few games (PIT v MIA, CIN v IND for example). It's the season's first severe weather games (besides the Week 1 & 2 thunderstorms) so it's hard to predict how teams are going to respond. That said, it might be worth going with the home teams in those scenarios, as it's difficult to see an indoor team (IND) and a warm weather team (MIA) performing particularly well in the snow. I'm not going to change my picks, but I think lower scores are to be expected than my original predictions.