49ers vs. Panthers, Take 2: The One That Counts

from cbssanfran.com

Back on the grind, back on the grind.

I took a long time off from this blog for no other reason than I was lazy, and when I wasn’t lazy life got in the way. But I’m back to close out the season—a season I expect to end with the 49ers as Super Bowl Champs. The quest for six continues!

Last week’s games were awesome. I think enough has been said on those games without me rehashing everything. Andrew Luck is awesome, Alex Smith unlucky, Drew Brees clinical, Andy Dalton a mess, blah blah blah.

Look, here’s a rule I’m certainly not the first to point out, and it’s becoming so kicked around it’s already got the sour tang of a cliché. But it’s no empty cliché, it’s the absolute truth: If you want to win a Super Bowl you need a Super Bowl caliber coach and you need a legitimate (not elite) quarterback. The coach-quarterback complex is the ultimate indicator of championship legitimacy.

Marvin Lewis-Andy Dalton are not a championship caliber pairing.

Of the eight remaining teams, I’m fairly convinced by six of them of their legitimacy as contenders in terms of the coach-quarterback complex.

I am taking a wait-and-see approach with McCoy-Rivers (my hesitancy lies in McCoy, not Rivers) and Rivera-Newton (who are absolute wild cards as far as I’m concerned). You never know what you’re gonna get with Riverboat Ron—or as he’d prefer to be known, Calculated Risk Taker Ron—and Super-Cam.

The 49ers are inching closer to the Super Bowl, inching closer to a titanic battle of heavyweights with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.

But first—the Panthers.

from rugbywrapup.com

The storylines have been made clear; we owe them, we didn’t have three of our biggest stars for all or the majority of the game, the Niners are the best road team in football, the Panthers have no playoff experience. We’ve heard the Panthers will win because they field a defense that can confound Colin Kaepernick, because this is a game of two evenly matched teams but the Panthers are at home and in their time zone, because they have the added advantage of playing against the Vegas’ insulting spread, who made them home underdogs despite their superior seeding and win on our home field earlier this season.

I’m inclined to think all those things are going to affect this game in some way. It’s hard to estimate the psychological motivation such perceived slights have on hyper-competitive (likely unnaturally enhanced) athletes.

Because it’s impossible to estimate, I’m not going to say one team has more motivation or pressure to win this game than the other. The 49ers feel as if they owe the Panthers for a bad loss, the Panthers feel as if no one believes in them. Let’s call it evens.

I do think the Niners have the advantage as far as playoff experience. Once again, that’s an intangible advantage that’s difficult to quantify, but as Brady and Belichick, Eli Manning and Coughlin proven before, the been-there-done-that aspect of playoff experience is a legitimate advantage. Then again, so is home field advantage, especially when the 49ers have to travel east and play a game at 10 a.m. on their biological clock. Let’s call it evens.

I guess what I’m attempting to do here is even the playing field so to speak. If neither team has the outside advantage of extra motivation, or extra focus, or anything else intangible—if this game is played in complete neutrality (on paper basically) who wins?

I personally believe it’s the 49ers by a longshot. From a personnel standpoint the Niners are a superior team at almost every single position group.

You can make the case that Kaep and Cam Newton are essentially equals, and I wouldn’t necessarily argue that with too much fervor. In the previous match both played pretty poorly, though Cam played less poorly. Still, I can’t—as a Kaep supporter—not make the excuse for him that he was without two of his top weapons. Kaep is not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. He’s still developing, and he might never reach that pinnacle of passing prowess. He’s not quite at the level where he can singlehandedly raise the play of the receivers around him. However, when given weapons to work with, when given receivers he trusts, Kaep has shown he can absolutely control a game and put together a monster performance—even without a strong running game.

And therein lies the difference at the QB position: Kaep is a better quarterback with his weapons than Cam is with his.

from zimbio.com

Once again, you can make the case that these teams are equal at the RB position. You can say that DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert as a group are as good or better than Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon. You might be right. Still, Frank Gore is far and away, no argument whatsoever, the best running back that’s going to suit up for this game. He alone will affect this game more than the other five guys combined. Advantage 49ers.

I’ve already made my point about the pass catchers. Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis wipe the floor with a gimpy Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Greg Olsen.

I’m taking the 49ers offensive line over the Panthers as well. Both groups have been tremendous this season, but the Niners have two proven anchors at either end of the line, and absolute road-grading beasts in Mike Iupati and Alex Boone in the middle. The 49ers from a talent and continuity standpoint are capable of dominating any front seven in football on any given Sunday. I don’t think I can say that about the Panthers five linemen, regardless of how consistent they have been this season.

One area where I might have to concede the advantage to the Panthers is at defensive line. They led the league in sacks (60). Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy are tremendous edge rushers. Star Lotulelei is a load in the middle and was an absolute steal with the 14^th overall pick in this past draft. Dwan Edwards is solid inside as well, and Kawann Short is a very effective inside rusher. The Panthers’ defensive line is the real deal. On the other hand, Justin Smith, Ray McDonald and Glenn Dorsey are obviously nothing to scoff at. If the Panthers have an advantage here, it’s a small one.

from espn.com

I love Luke Kuechly. The guy is a beast, and he might be the best middle linebacker in football…not named NaVorro Bowman. I’m sorry, I know I have my 49ers glasses on and everything is a wonderful hazy hue of red and gold, but we are all watching the same NaVorro Bowman play football right? The guy is unbelievable, un-fucking-believable. He is so good that he overshadows Patrick Willis most games—you know, the guy that has been the consensus top linebacker in football the past half-decade. I know that this position group is getting attention above all others. There are going to be a lot of great linebackers on display in this contest, but none are playing better right now than NaVorro Bowman—who might be the best defensive player on earth at this moment in time.

I haven’t even said Aldon Smith’s or Ahmad Brooks’ name yet, and those guys combined for 3.5 sacks on Aaron Rodgers last game. And he only dropped back about 30 times! That’s pretty unbelievable stuff. Once again, throw the last game between these two teams out the window (when it could be argued, probably pretty strongly, our linebacking corps was outmatched by theirs) I’m giving the Niners the advantage at LB. Big-play-Bow is coming for you Cam!

The secondary is almost as easy to call as the receiving group was. The Niners win this one hands down. Eric Reid is playing at a level unknown to most rookie safeties, Donte Whitner is having the best year of his entire career, Tramaine Brock has been a revelation, Tarell Brown is just rock solid, and Perrish Cox played very effectively in last week’s game. If Carlos Rogers comes back this weekend, that’s just an added bonus to a group that is already playing at a very high level.

The Panthers secondary isn’t bad. In fact, they’re pretty damn good too. The individual names don’t jump out at you (except Captain Munnerlyn, that name always jumps out at you). As a whole, though, they are a pretty impressive group. They force turnovers and play very aggressively. Mike Mitchell in particular has raised the level of his game this season.

Still, I’d be being silly if I tried to claim, out of some misplaced desire to overvalue the 49ers' opponent in case we lose, that the Panthers are our equals in terms of talent in the secondary.

from zimbio.com

There’s the old adage, commonly used by Ray Lewis, that football is a game of three phases—offense, defense, and special teams—and that if you can win two of those three phases, you are probably going to win the game.

I can’t pretend to know too much about the Panthers’ special teams. I know Ted Ginn is an elite return man, even if he hasn’t housed one this season. He’s among the league’s best at turning field position. Ginn is a far superior return man to LaMichael James.

While I can’t pretend to know much about the Panthers’ special teams, I do know a lot about ours. Our coverage units are among the best in football, maybe second only to the Seahawks (who are ungodly good in their coverage units). Still, Ginn is a game changer as a return man—any 49ers fan worth his/her salt remembers that.

If the 49ers do go on to lose this game, I’d be willing to bet that special teams has something to do with it, and I’d be willing to further bet that Ted Ginn is the man responsible.

And yet, I don’t envision that happening. In fact, I think the more likely scenario is the 49ers win in all three phases of this game. They have the experience, they have the depth, and they have the talent to win on the road against a very good Panthers team in convincing fashion.

I certainly hope it happens, but if there’s one adage in football that will always, always stands the test of time it’s: Any given Sunday.

49ers 24, Panthers 16.