San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks: Taming the Beast

from seahawks.com

I would like to do a much longer preview, but I didn't have time today. If you don't know my rule, know I never bet against the 49ers, so you can safely assume I'm picking them to win this game.

I can write 10,000 words explaining to you why the offense will be better equipped to unlock the Seattle defense with Michael Crabtree on the field. But you can read that anywhere. As important as Crabtree's return is, I think it's possibly been overstated. Maybe not overstated actually, but his return has overshadowed other keys to the game.

from atlantablackstar.com

When it comes down to it, I truly believe (way deep down) that the 49ers playing their best are better than the Seahawks at their best. I think we have more weapons on offense, and I think that when Colin Kaepernick is in a rhythm and on his game (a big if) he is a better quarterback than Russell Wilson (who is undoubtedly a more polished, consistent and accomplished passer overall at this point).

I think our defense has the better front seven, I think they clearly have the better secondary, but overall I'd take the Niners' starting 11 on defense over the Seahawks' starting 11. Our four linebackers are unmatched in terms of talent and production; and I'd take their sure tackling, pressure on the quarterback, and ability to create turnovers on any play (passing or running) over the Seahawks' "legion of boom."

With the Seahawks away from CenturyLink, and the 49ers focused and motivated to play their best football, I think our best tops the Seahawks' best tomorrow. I think Frank Gore will run effectively enough, if not spectacularly, to give Kaepernick the balance he needs to have a solid passing day.

from nydailynews.com

I expect that when it's all said and done, we will say that Kaepernick won this game with his arm.

In the first meeting in Week 2, the 49er defense played strong from the start. By the end of the first quarter Russel Wilson's stat line looked like this: 0-6 for no yards, an interception, and a sack. That was in Seattle.

The offense single-handedly lost that game despite a stellar first half performance by the defense. Turnovers and a lack of offensive cohesion that caused short, ineffective drives put the defense in bad positions time and time again until they finally broke. It was inevitable. They played admirably though; much, much better than the 29 points scored against them would indicate. I expect more of the same in this game, but this time the Seahawks won't have the benefit of a cooperative crowd and Aldon Smith smacking an offensive lineman in the helmet for no reason to extend a drive like an idiot (knock on wood).

Our offense was actually more effective than the Seahawks early on in that game, and without a poor redzone decision by Kaepernick we would have taken an early (albeit minimal) lead. Kaepernick is more seasoned and more prepared at this stage of the season, and he will be more comfortable at home. I fully expect such boneheaded mistakes to be erased...or at least kept to a minimum.

The key is aggression. We need to score and score early and we need to keep the Seahawks off-balance offensively. We need to put pressure on them to throw it early and often.

The way to beat the Seahawks tomorrow is simple: stop Marshawn Lynch.

from topbet.eu

We have not stopped the "Beast" in our last three contests, and if he gets going for a fourth consecutive time the Seahawks have a very strong chance to do some damage against our defense. If we can remove Lynch from the equation and make the Seahawks a one-dimensional team, I'll take our pass rush against their offensive line any day. I'd also take our secondary over their receiving corps any day--especially without Percy Harvin.

Russell Wilson is going to work some magic and make plays only he can make. He's going to make you scratch your head in semi-disbelief and frustration, but I do not believe that he can pick apart the Niners secondary without some semblance of a threat of Lynch and the running game. A one-dimensional Seahawks team is a very beatable team, especially at the Stick.

Tame the Beast, and we can take this game.

I'm expecting that to happen.

27-19, 49ers.

from sfgate.com

NFL Week 14 Picks and Previews... and a Cliffhanger

Going for the magical 16-0 against the spread this week. Let's get to it.

Indianapolis (+6.5) over CINCINNATI

This game has more playoff implications than you might think. Both these teams are highly likely to end up as the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in the AFC, regardless of the outcome of this game. Normally, the difference between being the No. 3 seed as opposed to No. 4 seed is nominal. Not in this case. Wanting the higher seed isn’t even a product of trying to avoid the Broncos, as travelling to Foxboro is almost equally (maybe more) daunting. No, it’s that the No. 4 seed (likely the loser of this game) has to play the dangerous Kansas City Chiefs, while the No. 3 seed gets the draw of whatever mediocre team escapes with the No. 6 seed. If you think both teams aren’t aware of this, then you’d be mistaken. Andrew Luck, though I’m sure he’s only looking ahead “at the next game on the schedule,” knows full well that beating a Dolphins or Ravens team in Lucas Oil Stadium is hardly a mountainous obstacle, while the Chiefs would be a tricky proposition. I’m still picking Cincinnati to win this game—they are at home, have a very strong pass defense, and get a Colts team that is not playing its best football—but I have to take the points on this one. I think Luck and the Colts keep this one close. 27-23, Bengals.

GREEN BAY (off) over Atlanta

The spread is off for this game as of now; I believe because Aaron Rodgers’ status was still in question. He’s out, so I assume the spread will be your typical pick ‘em of Green Bay minus-3, because of the home-field advantage. Matt Flynn was terrible last week. The Falcons offense played very well against a fairly good (at least average) Buffalo defense last week on the road. I think the popular pick would be to go with the Falcons, with the belief that Flynn won’t keep pace with Ryan. I’m no fan of Flynn’s, and he was very poor (and his offensive line was poorer) last week indeed. Still, I’m less of a fan of the Falcons defense, which is just horrendous. It’s December, it’s in Lambeau, and the Packers have the better running game with Eddie Lacy and James Starks. They also have a superior defense (even if that side of the ball has been suspect as well, especially recently). Outdoors and in the cold, defense and the run-game are always at a premium. I’ll take the Packers. 23-20, Packers.

NEW ENGLAND (off) over Cleveland

I don’t rightfully know why this game is currently off. A Campbell-Weeden quarterback controversy? Is Campbell healthy? Does it really matter? I’m unsure. Either way, I’m sure the Patriots are going to be double-digit favorites—as they should be. As long as this spread is under 14, I’m taking the Pats. They are a far superior team, they're at home and a first-round bye, potentially a No. 1 seed, is on the line. Why draw the line at 14? Two touchdowns seems high, while 13 points seems reasonable for some semi-inexplicable reason. I think the Pats dominate, but Josh Gordon has been otherworldly, so there’s a chance that the Browns can make some noise. I don’t really seeing that happening though, for the same reasons mentioned above about GB-ATL. This game is outside, so the run game will be at a premium. The Patriots have a lot of trouble stopping the run, but the Browns can’t run the ball effectively anyways so it’s a wash. Following this line of thought, the Pats have a solid running game (provided they aren’t fumbling), but the Browns have a solid front seven, so let’s call that a wash. I’m willing to say Tom Brady is a touchdown and some change better than Campbell/Weeden. Two touchdowns? Maybe, maybe not. It’d be more difficult for me to forsake the points if they’re at 14 as opposed to 10. 30-16, Patriots.

Oakland (+2.5) over New York Jets

I don’t get it. I know the Jets have more wins, and I know they’re at home, and I’m not one to deny the importance of home-field advantage. That said, has Vegas been watching Geno Smith play football? He’s so bad, he has made the Oakland Raiders defense a viable starting option in fantasy...On the road...In the fantasy playoffs! I know the world of fantasy and the world of real-life football on the real-life gridiron are two totally different things, but this is one of those rare moments when worlds collide. I think the fantasy experts got it right on this one and Vegas is getting it wrong. Roll with Raiders. McGloin will do enough to put points on the board and put pressure on the Jets to throw it, and when they do…Look out. Charles Woodson feasts on rookie signal-callers. He’s going for a pick-six. Book it. You heard it here first. 24-16, Raiders.

PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) over Detroit

This is another moment where fantasy and the gridiron collide. For me at least. Last week was the turning point for me; I’ve bought in on Foles. I’m rolling with him over Cam Newton in my fantasy league. Call me a sucker, but 19-0 don’t lie. Going with some more traditional and sound reasoning for picking this game—it essentially amounts to a pick ‘em and the Eagles have the motivational advantage of needing a win to keep pace with the Cowboys. On the whole these two teams are very evenly matched. The Eagles are slightly worse overall defensively, but the Lions secondary is suspect to say the least, and suspect doesn’t win games on the road against big hitters like DeSean Jackson. The best reason to pick the Eagles here though comes down to quarterback play; Foles has a nice round zero next to interceptions, while Stafford has a fairly high number at 14. You can’t turn the ball over to good offenses on the road and expect to come away as winners. 34-30, Eagles.

Miami (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
The Phins are my AFC team and I can't abide by the Steelers so I'm taking the easy way out and letting my bias make this pick for me. These teams are pretty even, but I like the Dolphins to keep pace with the Ravens in the AFC Wild Card race, so I think they'll figure out a way to win. Not a lot of well reasoned analysis on this one. 24-21, Dolphins.

TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over Buffalo

Tampa Bay is favored to win a game: How far they’ve come! Seriously though, the Buccaneers have played some good football since Glennon took over. These two teams are fairly evenly matched in a big picture sense (for example, if I were doing Madden ratings, I’d have them both around 74). Unfortunately for the Bills, the matchup favors the Bucs. The Bills want to run it, and the Bucs stop the run extremely well. With Glennon under center the Bucs have a much more balanced offensive approach than the Bills, and I expect that to show up in the final score. 23-17, Buccaneers.

Kansas City (-3) over WASHINGTON

Both teams are in a slump, but whereas Washington’s slump is the result of dysfunction and general lack of quality, the Chiefs can blame the schedule. The Chiefs, as we now know for a fact, were a bit lucky to get to 9-0, but they are still a very quality team. You could make the argument Washington is lucky to have three wins. This is a simple matter of picking a quality team over a sub-mediocre team with very little risk—three points in this case is nothing; I expect if this game was at Arrowhead you’d be looking at the Chiefs being favored by at least a touchdown. Alex Smith is playing his best ball of the season; in his last five games he’s thrown nine touchdowns against just two interceptions for 1,166 yards. Washington’s defense is either-or. They can either load up against the run and give up the pass, or play the pass and give up the run. Smith’s improved play gives Kansas City the balance that Washington won’t be able to handle. 28-17, Chiefs.

BALTIMORE (-6.5) over Minnesota

This line moved from an even seven earlier in the week, and that half point actually gives me more confidence to go with the Ravens on this one. Before I continue with my reasoning, let me just say that if any game should be off this week, it should be this one. If I knew the status of Dennis Pitta and I knew he was healthy, I’d be willing to lay more than a touchdown on the Ravens. My friend, a Vikings fan, informed me that over the last few weeks the Vikings have been the top third-down defense in football. Did I take the time to look this up? Nope. I trust he’s right though, and you’ll have to trust my trust in him. Trust me, trusting him. The Ravens have a tough time extending drives, as their run game is so mediocre they’re consistently behind schedule on the down and distance, and because Flacco is sorely lacking for move-the-chains, possession type receivers. That is not a good combination going into a game with a defense that is getting off the field with ease. Having Pitta available and healthy would change the entire chemistry of the game for the Ravens offense. Still, I expect Ray Rice to run well enough against a Vikings defense that has been kind to opposing running backs, to say the least. That should be enough to cover at home, because the Ravens defense is built to stop the run—so I doubt Adrian Peterson tops 200 for a second consecutive week. Also, Matt Cassel is starting. So yeah, lay the points. 26-19, Ravens.

DENVER (-12) over Tennessee

Go ahead and re-read the Patriots and Browns preview again. This is a very similar situation. Fitzpatrick is better than any QB the Browns will field, but they don’t have a weapon like Josh Gordon either. The Titans' season dies on Sunday. 38-24, Broncos.

ARIZONA (-6.5) over St. Louis

The Cardinals are a superior team that is schematically and personnel-wise built to beat the Rams and they’re at home. This line may be a bit low. Zac Stacy has earned my respect and a small bit of adoration for almost single-handedly rehabilitating my fantasy season, but without both Jake Long and Scott Wells blocking for him, and against a very strong front seven, I don’t see him having a strong game to put it lightly. That puts the pressure on Kellen Clemens to throw the ball when everyone on the field knows he’s going to throw it. That means Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu will have an opportunity to make plays. That means the Rams will lose this game. Their defense isn’t good enough to carry them to victory alone, the Cardinals defense is. 31-16, Cardinals.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over New York Giants

I hate the Giants. I hate Eli Manning. Let my bias be clear. Still, this is another pick ‘em and I’ll take the home team with a hot QB in Philip Rivers over the road team with Eli the “Elite” Turnover Machine.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Carolina

Yet another pick ‘em game. This is far and away the most difficult game to call. We just saw the Saints fall apart at the hands of a great defense. They were slowed at home by a great 49ers defense three weeks ago. I don’t doubt the ability of the Carolina defense to at least keep this game close, even if the Saints are averaging over 30 points per game at home. I also don’t doubt Cam Newton’s ability to keep pace with Drew Brees. That Panthers offense has been hitting on all cylinders since putting up a 10-spot against the Niners. There’s really not a lot to go on in terms of matchups and statistics. What we do know is that the Saints were just embarrassed at the hands of the Seahawks, and they know they need to win this game to have any chance of hosting a playoff game. Even after last week’s debacle, I’m not willing to bet against a highly focused, highly motivated Drew Brees and Sean Payton at this juncture. They’ve been there and done it. Newton and Rivera have not…yet. 31-27, Saints.

Dallas (+1) over CHICAGO

A fantasy feast for Monday Night Football. You could argue this game has bigger playoff implications for the Bears, because if they lose they can basically kiss goodbye any hopes at a miracle playoff run. Dallas could hypothetically lose this game and be in fine shape, as a win against the Eagles in Jerry’s World in Week 17 would essentially lock up the division regardless of the happenings of this week. But…You’ve got to think the Cowboys need this game worse than the Bears do. They cannot drop a game behind the Eagles with three left to play. The media would have a field day. You know it, I knowit, the Eagles know it and the Cowboys sure as shit know it. They’re on the national stage, playing an average team without its starting quarterback. If they don’t win this game, you can start engraving the tombstone of the 2013 Cowboys. I have little faith in them over the long haul, but I have faith the Bears defense will be so bad against the run that the Cowboys will be balanced on offense basically by default. I’ll take Romo over McCown in a shootout. 34-30, Cowboys.

What, no Niners?

Like I could fit them into this column. They get a whole one of their own. Tomorrow. Check back and enjoy your football!


**UPDATE**
Severe weather is going to affect at least a few games (PIT v MIA, CIN v IND for example). It's the season's first severe weather games (besides the Week 1 & 2 thunderstorms) so it's hard to predict how teams are going to respond. That said, it might be worth going with the home teams in those scenarios, as it's difficult to see an indoor team (IND) and a warm weather team (MIA) performing particularly well in the snow. I'm not going to change my picks, but I think lower scores are to be expected than my original predictions.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans: Thursday Night Football Preview & Pick

from jaguarsgab.com

I was planning on posting the entire slate of Week 14 picks and previews, but stuff got in the way so I’m just going to go keep in minimal today and do the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans game. Tomorrow (maybe) I’ll get to the other 15 games, with a special look to the 49ers and Seahawks showdown, of course.

*line from Yahoo Sports*

JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Houston

The Jaguars got a win in Houston just a couple weeks ago, but that’s hardly the reason for this pick. This is just a simple matter of Houston still being overvalued based on preseason expectations. Both these teams are garbage. I’m tempted to pick Houston, even though this game is in Jacksonville and the Texans are three point favorites, but it’s only a temptation.

It’s a temptation based on all the times I expected the Texans to actually show up and play good football early on in the season. It’s a temptation to pick against a Jaguars team I’ve routinely called talentless and bad. They are talentless and bad, but the Texans are equally bad (if not quite equally talentless). The difference here is that Jacksonville has points in hand at home, and they are still playing with fight.

The Texans are a group of punchless sob-artists that feel bad for themselves. They have maybe half-a-dozen guys on the team playing with some actual urgency and fire. The ones I can name; Andre Johnson because he’s a professional with pride, J.J. Watt because he’s a professional with pride, Ben Tate because he’s looking for a big contract in the offseason, and Case Keenum because he’s trying to prove he should have a shot to compete with Teddy Bridgewater in training camp. And the Texans will be drafting Bridgewater, because they will lose this game.

The Jaguars offense has been better of late, but that’s really not saying much. The bar was set about as low as it could be set. The Texans defense, which had been playing well through the first half despite the lack of any semblance of help from the offense, has started to sink to the dreary level of its offense. The Jaguars should be able to put up some points on this defense, enough to outscore a Keenum-led Texans squad. Expect a solid night from MJD. I just hope, for my fantasy team’s sake, that Andre Johnson gets in the endzone at some point.

20-16, Jaguars. 

NFL Week 13 Retrospective: The Playoff Fog Begins to Clear

from centurylinkfield.com

There’s only one-quarter of the season left to play, so instead of doing a full on game-by-game review, let’s focus on those games that had major playoff implications.

It already seems like weeks ago, but the Thanksgiving games were actually a part of Week 13. The Lions blowing out the Packers essentially gives them the NFC North and a playoff berth. They have a game-and-a-half lead over the Packers, and what basically amounts to a two game lead—because they have won both meetings between them—over the Bears. Assuming the Lions can win two of the next four, they should have the division well in hand.

They also deserve the division, as they’re clearly the best team playing up north right now. I mean, you can make the argument that with Aaron Rodgers the Packers are the cream of the crop, and it would be a very legitimate argument, but the fact of the matter is that they haven’t and still don’t have him, so the Lions very much deserve to host a playoff game; a game that will likely be a loss at the hands of the 49ers (knock on wood).

Speaking of the 49ers, let’s talk about the Seahawks (throwin’ curveballs round here). I don’t want to take anything away from them and how well they played against the Saints on Monday night. I hate them, but I’m not blind—they’re really, really good. I thought losing Browner and Thurmond would cause them some difficulties on the back end, and I’ve talked down their run defense all season (and rightfully so, they’ve been flat out dominated in the run games at times), but that was the single best defensive performance of any team all season. They didn’t just slow Drew Brees and the Saints; they completely and utterly shut them down. I know when I’m wrong, and I was wrong to think that Brees and Payton could walk into Seattle unfazed. They were fazed—like Jimi Hendrix on a rough night fazed.

Like I said, I don’t want to take anything away from them… but I am going to take something away from them, something that could potentially be seen as a compliment. Their home-field advantage—can anyone actually explain it? They have been a good, but not great, road team this season. They’ve come out winners in some mind-boggling meltdowns against bad teams on the road (the Texans come to mind immediately). Still, good teams take advantage of their opportunities, and they were handed multiple opportunities to steal games late, and have taken advantage of every single one.

But let’s talk about their home-field advantage for a minute—a home-field advantage they will almost undoubtedly have all the way through the playoffs. What is going on at the Clink? I don’t understand. I don’t understand how perfectly capable football players suddenly and completely fall apart when they walk into that building. False starts, delay of games, offsides I can understand. I can tolerate those kinds of mistakes. It’s loud. Absurdly loud. Those sorts of mistakes are common in loud stadiums across the league. They’re common in Kansas City—which nearly matches Seattle for loudness.

It’s not just the noise though. It can’t be. Nothing even remotely similar happens to teams that play in other loud stadiums—not in KC, not in New Orleans, not at Lambeau, or the Georgia Dome (when Atlanta was relevant). Players forget how to play the game intelligently when they go into Seattle. You can see it at every level of an offense and defense. Lineman hold and miss blocks; running backs don’t see holes; wide receivers don’t get into and out of their breaks with the right timing; safeties get lost in space; linebackers over pursue constantly; ends rush with zero discipline. Some of it is simply good play calling by Darrel Bevell on the offensive side, but there’s something ineffable that just can’t be accounted for.

Teams look like they are completely unprepared every single time they step on that field. The single exception this season—the Buccaneers oddly enough.

I just don’t get it. I’d like an explanation that doesn’t begin and end with noise. I’m not buying it. I’m not saying they have some sort of voodoo magic either, but I don’t understand how good football players walk onto that field and just lose their damn minds. I don’t understand how one of the most brilliant offensive minds has no answer at all for a very schematically sound, but fairly schematically simple, defense. It’s beyond reason. I’m confused.

So, yeah, looks like if the Niners have any chance whatsoever to return to the Super Bowl we’re going to have to win in Seattle. But that’s for a whole different column.

Still, the biggest story of the week is Seattle’s blow-out victory over the Saints. The importance of that win can’t be overstated. It’s huge, absolutely huge. It gives them the best chance of any team in football to gain entrance to the Super Bowl, because they now have the luxury of not playing their best football and still winning two straight playoff games, because there is a very real possibility, an almost unavoidable certainty, that whoever they play will not be playing their best ball either. It’s going to take a team’s very best performance, mixed with a down game from the Seahawks to come away with a road win in Seattle. It’s a longshot to say the least.

from usatoday.com

The Broncos also basically booked a ticket for a bye, but they haven’t quite sealed home-field for the playoffs. This is almost as big for them as it is for Seattle, but for a different reason. The Broncos have to get the No. 1 seed, because they can’t envy a rematch against the Patriots in Foxboro. Not at all.

Peyton is slightly screwed either way; he’s going to have to play in freezing cold weather regardless. But at least in Denver he’ll have the crowd behind him and against Brady, and the other 52 players on his team will have the advantage of being moderately more used to the altitude. They need to get to 14-2 and lock up that first seed, no doubt.

The Patriots almost handed the Broncos the first seed with that less-than-good performance against the Texans. [I’m taking full credit for calling that by the way. I’ll own up to my idiocy thinking the Saints stood a chance in Seattle, but I want my credit for going 8-4-1 ATS. That’s not too shabby.] The Patriots are not as good as the Broncos. That’s almost abundantly clear. But the Patriots are better than the Broncos at home in the cold; what’s new in the Brady-Manning narrative?

And honestly, those are the teams that are going to be vying for the AFC when it’s all said and done. If the Bengals could grab a bye, I might be able to get behind them, but expecting three straight performances of good ball from Andy Dalton? Don’t make me laugh.

Dalton had an extra week to prepare for a Chargers defense that has basically been carved up by virtually every opposing passer—going back to week 1 against Matt Schaub (yep, Matt Schaub)—and he came away with a 14-23/190/1/1 line. I could have done that. There’s a zero percent chance that he makes it through the Chiefs/Ravens/Dolphins and then Broncos and Patriots (on the road) consecutively. Zero.

I also hate writing off Andrew Luck. I have no problem writing off the other 52 members of the Colts, because they’re a mediocre team on the whole. But Luck? I don’t like to bet against that guy. He’s a big-time QB. I’d probably take him second of any signal-caller in the NFL to win me one game (behind only Aaron Rodgers). The Colts are the opposite story of the Bengals; I have no issues thinking Luck can put together three strong performances, I just highly doubt the rest of that team can rise to his level in consecutive games to make it to the Super Bowl.

The defense was much better against the Titans. I have to give them credit for that. They definitely righted the ship on that side of the ball (for that game at least), but they had only 73 rushing yards on 19 carries from the Brown-Richardson duo. 35 of those yards came on seven carries in the fourth quarter; meaning that in the first three quarters they had a total of 38 yards from their backs. Luck had 42 rushing yards on five scrambles by the way; far and away their most productive rusher.

Andrew Luck can’t be expected to win with no help from the run game when their receiving corps is composed of T.Y. Hilton, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Lavon Brazil. Especially when you never know what kind of effort you’re going to get from the defense.

The Chiefs aren’t a legitimate threat to win the AFC either unfortunately. They have yet to put together a game of great football on both sides of the ball. Their defense has fallen off at an astonishing pace—even given the injuries of Houston and Hali. Marcus Cooper was finally exposed for the 7^th-round rookie he is. And the Chiefs simply aren’t a team that can afford to have a bad or even average game from either its offense or defense and still come out as a victor against good teams in the playoffs.

The other wild card? Don’t make me laugh. The Ravens could do the whole miracle run thing again, making them the official AFC version of the Giants, but let’s not act like we can expect or predict that. If it happens, then oh well, it happens. But they aren’t a good enough team to expect anything more than a playoff berth from. With Ray Rice struggling, the Ravens don’t have enough balance on offense to keep pace with the big offenses of the Patriots and Broncos. Simple as that.

The Dolphins could get a win against the Bengals or Colts (they’ve already done it), but beyond that you’re looking at a real long shot. They’re not good enough to take the AFC. Simple as that.

I’m capping the AFC race for the sixth seed with those two teams. I think (and I hinted as much previously) that those two teams were the best bets for that spot, and they took a big step in getting to 6-6, watching everyone else fall back a game to 5-7 (Titans, Chargers, Steelers, Jets).

Let’s end the discussion with my two favorite games of the week.

from zimbio.com

The Eagles came through with a HUGE win over the Cardinals. In Foles I trust, in Palmer I don’t. I think if we learned anything from the game though, it’s that Chip Kelly is really starting to adjust to the NFL way of life. He called some stupid plays—the wildcat (that he said “wasn’t” a wildcat) play that Brad Smith fumbled with goal-to-go certainly comes to mind—but he and Pat Shurmur really devised a fantastic game plan against a very good Cardinals defense. Patrick Peterson, as he usually does, blanketed their top receiver in DeSean Jackson, so the Eagles attacked the Cardinals where they’re weakest—throwing the ball continually to the tight ends. Simple but brilliant. And they never gave up on the run, even when it wasn’t at its most effective. Solid play calling on that side of the ball.

And whereas I expected the secondary of the Cardinals to make some big plays (PP7 actually did, only to have his interception wiped away by penalty), the Eagles secondary took advantage of Palmer early and often, eventually coming away with a big pass break-up on fourth down to seal up the game. Good football all around by the Eagles.

from sfgate.com

Definitely can’t forget about the Niners. I feel like I can basically copy-paste what I wrote last week in the recap, and just replace “Redskins” with “Rams.” The defense was incredible again, slowing down one of the hottest running backs in football and making life difficult for Kellen Clemens all day.

The offense was average again, but still improving. The Rams defense is no pushover, and while I expected much more from Gore and the running game, it was encouraging to see the passing offense continue on the upswing. Kaepernick wasn’t at his best, but he was good enough, and that’s all that matters in a game you can’t afford to lose.

The big news is that Crabs is back. What can I say that hasn’t already been said? I’m stoked, you’re stoked, he’s stoked, Boldin is stoked, Vernon is stoked, Kaep is probably squealing into his pillow at night like a flattered 13-year-old girl he’s so stoked.

He’s going to be the key to opening up this offense, and if the Niners have any chance at all of making it back to Super Bowl, it’ll be because he’s healthy and returns to 2012 form. Gotta love that he was able to beat single coverage on the outside with such ease on that double-move for 60 yards in just his first game back. It made me tear up with joy a little bit.

And with that I bid you adieu. Tomorrow I’ll try to get a Week 14 preview in. Go Niners. 

NFL Week 13 Picks and Predictions

from profootballfocus.com

NFL Week 13: The byes are over and the playoffs are taking shape. There’s a full slate of games to get to so let’s skip the introduction and get to it.

*all lines from ESPN Mobile Score App (because I wrote this without an internet connection)*


CLEVELAND (-7) over Jacksonville
Cleveland is a borderline good football team. The Jaguars, while they’ve shown good fight the last two weeks for new coach Gus Bradley, are not, nor could they be confused with, a good football team. Even with Weeden at QB the Browns top playmakers, Gordon and Cameron, should do enough on offense to give the defense a comfortable lead; a lead I expect the defense to have no problem maintaining against the Jaguars putrid offense. 23-10, Browns.

Holy shit, holy shit I have the Iron Bowl on right now and… HOLY SHIT, what finish! That’s what I want to see when I watch college ball. Fan-frickin-tastic! Wild!

Sorry for the interruption, back to our regularly scheduled column. Hot damn.

Tennessee (+3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
I like Indianapolis a lot. Outside of Indy, you’ll have a hard time finding someone who likes and respects Andrew Luck more than me. Despite my predilection towards any team quarterbacked by Luck with its back against the wall, I can’t ignore the team-wide problems the Colts have been having. No receiver has, or is capable of, replacing what they lost in Reggie Wayne, and the running game is stuck in a permanent rut. Their run defense has alternated between acceptable and terrible, and their pass defense has been steadily declining since a strong showing against Peyton and the Broncos. The Amish Rifle has some swagger about him and he played very well on the road last week against a Raiders’ defense I think is only very slightly worse than the Colts. Fitzpatrick and Kendall Wright have a solid connection, and between those two and a solid day rushing by one of my least favorite NFL players, Chris Johnson, I think the Titans steal a close one to keep pace in the AFC Wild Card race (and put them just a game behind the Colts for the AFC South in the process). 24-23, Titans. 

Chicago (even) over MINNESOTA
That line can’t possibly be right, right? Even? I know the Bears have struggled on defense since losing Briggs, and they weren’t great to begin with, and I know that Cutler is still out, and I know Forte has a knee issue, and I know that the game is in Minnesota, and I know Christian Ponder played fairly well last week…OK I might be convincing myself this line isn’t so crazy after all, but I’ll still take the Bears without any reservations in a straight pick ‘em. Have you seen the Vikings play football this year? I can’t pick them to beat a team that still has (slim) playoff aspirations, especially when a win could officially take them out of the race for the No. 1 overall pick - I know teams don’t actually care about this, and there’s really no such thing as blowing games for a higher pick, but I can’t help but write it. 27-17, Bears.

Miami (+2) over NEW YORK JETS
This pick is simultaneously a vote of confidence in Ryan Tannehill and a vote of no confidence in Geno Smith. Without Daniel Thomas (who wasn’t very good anyways) the Phins will be stuck slamming Lamar Miller into the Jets dominant defensive line to no avail, so they’ll abandon the run game early, and I expect Tannehill to do enough in the pass game to win this game fairly handily. On the other side of the ball, you’re looking at the exact opposite situation. The Phins field one of the NFL’s top pass defenses, but are among the worst tackling teams in the league. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell will get a steady diet of carries to try to keep Geno from completely obliterating any chance the Jets have of winning this game (and their wild card hopes). Still, they’ll have to throw it at some point, and when they do, Geno will find a way to completely obliterate any chance the Jets have of winning this game. 20-13, Dolphins.

Arizona (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
This is a tough game to call. Maybe the toughest of the week. I’m not completely sold on either Palmer or Foles, despite their recent hot streaks, and I feel like both are mere moments away from a total meltdown. The deciding factor has to be the defenses, and the Cardinals far and away outclass the Eagles on that side of the ball. With the front seven of the Cardinals having the ability to shut down McCoy and the running game of the Eagles, you could be looking at Foles having to win the game with his arm, and I’d be willing to bet Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu make some big plays to turn the tide of the game. As much as I’m hoping the Cardinals fall off so the Niners can gain some ground in the wild card standings, pure reason won’t let me pick against the Cards…this week. 27-20, Cardinals. 

CAROLINA (-7) over Tampa Bay
Classic trap game for the Panthers? Maybe. But as much as I like Glennon, I like what Cam Newton has been doing even more. The last time these two teams met, in Tampa I might add, the Panthers absolutely blew out the Bucs. Tampa has been much better the last few weeks, and are certainly better than their record indicates, but the Panthers are a borderline elite team, and should cover with ease. That’s all that really needs to be said about this game. 31-17, Panthers. 

HOUSTON (-7) over New England
This is my stupidest pick of the week. It’s a pure gut feeling. The Patriots embarrassed the Texans last year in a primetime matchup that was supposed set the stage for the Texans’ emergence as an AFC power, and then followed that up by knocking them off in the divisional round of the playoffs. I think that a Texans team that is down and out, among the worst in football, comes out with a little fire and plays the Pats tough; a Pats team coming off an emotional overtime rollercoaster ride in the freezing cold. Part of this pick is pure hard-headedness as well, as I have been talking up Ben Tate for weeks. I see a break-out game for big No. 44 against a Pats D that was shredded for well over 200 rushing yards by Knowshon and the Broncos last week. I don’t think the Texans win, but I don’t think the Patriots cover either. 27-31, Patriots. 

Atlanta (+3.5) over BUFFALO
If this was actually in Buffalo, in the snow and the freezing wind, I’d absolutely take the Bills and their running game against the Falcons porous defense. Inside and under a roof though, I think Ryan does enough to keep this game close. They too, might win themselves out of the No. 1 pick, but this is a team that hosted the NFC Championship game a year ago, and I think they’re proud enough to fight for every win they can get. Matt Ryan is not the type to lay down and ride out a two win season. That said, this could be an interesting brand of shootout, because I do not think the Falcons are going to be capable of stopping a rested and (relatively) healthy Jackson-Spiller duo. Run heavy vs. pass heavy, and it will be interesting to see who comes out the victor. I’m just not convinced I can lay the points on a Bills team that’s playing more in the Falcons element than their own. 27-24, Bills.

Denver (-6) over KANSAS CITY
This pick is strictly based on the performance of the Chiefs defense in last week’s game against the Chargers. Without a healthy Hali and Houston, the Chiefs simply won’t generate enough heat on Peyton Manning to keep him from picking apart their secondary, even though their secondary is among the league’s elite. The Chiefs offense was encouraging against the Chargers, but don’t kid yourself into thinking Alex Smith can match points with Peyton Manning without a strong defense at his back. Broncos win this game to take control of the AFC West and a playoff bye. 34-20, Broncos.

Cincinnati (even) over SAN DIEGO
My old roommate is a big Chargers fan, and so I have more than just a passing interest in the team, but as much as I would like to, I just can’t pick them to win this game. I love the turnaround Philip Rivers has made this season. I thought he could improve upon his 2011-12 self, but I was fully unprepared for this complete career renaissance. Still, the Bengals have allowed just one quarterback to surpass the 300-yard mark in the past 25 games (Matt Stafford in week 7), and while I wouldn’t put it past Rivers to do it, it’s hard to project a huge statistical game for him. Unfortunately for the Chargers, it’s also hard to project a great day for their running game against Cincinnati’s stout front seven or their defense, which has to match up against a Bengals offense that is coming off a bye. Though the Chargers might be able to lay claim to being the best team remaining in the wild card picture, their inability to close out games early in the season, combined with this loss, will likely have them on the outside looking in during playoff time. 30-27, Bengals.

New York Giants (+1) over WASHINGTON
Does anyone care about this game? Anyone at all? I know I don’t. I’m not going to waste my time writing up analysis for a game with no playoff implications, between two of the most overblown franchises not just in football, but in all of sports. The fact that this game remains on Sunday Night Football, instead of being flexed out, is a prime example of east coast bias. Eli Manning sucks, but Andre Brown and the Giants pass rushers don’t. They’ll be enough to win the game over a hapless Redskins team in disarray. 23-17, Giants. 

New Orleans (+5) over SEATTLE
If any coach and quarterback duo in the NFC can walk into Seattle and not give a fuck, it’s Brees and Payton. Even without Browner and Thurmond I don’t doubt the ability of Sherman and the rest of the Seahawks secondary to slow the Saints aerial attack; I just doubt its ability to slow it enough. Jimmy Graham will have some difficulty with Kam Chancellor, but he won’t be denied. He’s the most dominant pass-catcher not named Calvin Johnson, and he will find a way to make an impact on this game. The Saint defense won’t have to worry about the dynamic Percy Harvin this week either (or so it seems), so Rob Ryan will be able to load the box against Lynch and send pressure at that slimy little bastard the Seahawks employ at quarterback. Screw that guy…30-26, Saints.

SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5) over St. Louis
I actually think it’s kind of crazy the Niners have the largest spread over their opponent of any team this week. Still, NEVER bet against the Niners. Say it with me: NEVER bet against the Niners. You just don’t do it. Forget the points, NEVER bet against the Niners. The Rams have improved since we played them last, but this is a game we must win, so we should come out with a similar amount of motivation as we did in week 4. We’re also at home, so that helps, and Crabtree is coming back, so that also helps. I doubt he’ll see more than 50 percent of the snaps, and I doubt he’ll make a huge statistical impact in this game, but I do think that the Rams will have to account for him, and he can only make things easier on Boldin and Davis and Gore. Speaking of Gore, you don’t think he hasn’t heard (double negatives in honor of Dan Dierdorf’s retirement) the rumblings (for the third? fourth? consecutive season) that he’s old and his legs are giving out. Big game for Big Frank, mark it down and lock it in. 24-13, Niners.


Have a good Sunday. Enjoy your football everyone! Check back on Monday for some recaps, bragging on my prognosticative genius, and plenty of excuses for things that went wrong I couldn’t possibly have seen coming.

Aldon Smith — Thanksgiving Edition

from bloguin.com

Please wade through this meandering introduction; the good stuff is on the other side.

As we head into the Holidays, Thanksgiving in particular, I want to take a moment to say thanks for all the things that football and the 49ers have given me. They’ve given me the best kind of stress and anxiety. They’ve given me something to fret over and read about for the last ten years. They’ve given me something to write about.

The Niners have given us seven wins and four losses to scream about and get overly emotional and irrationally distraught over.

Football has given us surprise after surprise—joy and dismay.

We’ve had fantasy failures. We’ve had fantasy glory. We’ve had days where we were forced to lay down under a category five shit storm and listen to our friends berate us for drafting Ray Rice. We’ve had days where Ray Rice played the Chicago Bears and there was a glimpse of someone relevant, like seeing someone from another lifetime. It feels familiar, right for a moment, but then the reality is even when he’s been at his best this season he looks like he’s running with ankle weights and it all comes crashing back down around you. Oh Ray Rice, how thou art mine greatest of failures.

Let’s give thanks for all that.

And 49ers fans, I want to take a moment to really give thanks, really meditate on one of our most polarizing players. I want to give thanks that he’s back on the field, that he’s healthy, that he’s alive.

49ers fans, and really all fans of the game of football, let’s give thanks for Aldon Smith.

from espn.com

He has 40 career sacks in 38 career games. Let that sink in for a second. That’s 1.05 sacks per game. The current record for career sacks is 200 by Bruce Smith. If Aldon stays on his current pace he will make up that 160 sack difference in roughly 152 games, or less than 10 full seasons.

That means Aldon Smith could potentially match in less than 13 seasons what it took Bruce Smith 19 seasons to do. Bruce Smith, as in the Bruce Smith, Hall of Famer and No. 1 overall pick in the 1985 draft; among the top five pass rushers in history by anyone’s standards. Reggie White and Lawrence Taylor notwithstanding, he might be the most dominant defender the league has ever seen. Aldon Smith could not only reach his stratospheric level as a pass rusher, he could absolutely demolish his records. He’s looking at the potential for a legacy that is very similar to Jerry Rice’s; the discussion begins with him and ends with everyone else.

My use of italics isn’t because I like italics. They are useful at times, but I don’t like to litter my writing with them if I can help it. In this case I just can’t help it—this shit is amazing.

Granted, extrapolating those statistics comes with any number of caveats. How much longer will Justin Smith play? How much of an impact does Justin have on Aldon’s game? How will teams adjust to a player that is racking up sacks at a record pace? Will he avoid injury? Will he match Bruce Smith’s career longevity? Will he avoid jail? Will he avoid getting shot? Stabbed?

However, we also have to consider that this guy turned 24 less than three months ago. He hasn’t even played three full seasons. He’s really barely played more than two full seasons after his five game hiatus. And he’s only been an every down player in slightly over one season. There’s a very real possibility that he will continue to get better.

That is one of the real joys and most exciting things about being a 49er fan; knowing that we have an opportunity to witness the growth of a legend. Not a 49er legend, but the kind of player that is known in every football watching household across America for decades. Jerry Rice, Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Dick Butkus, Walter Payton, Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Reggie White, John Elway, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Barry Sanders, Lawrence Taylor, Bruce Smith, Calvin Johnson and Aldon Smith. Plus more of course, but you get the point.

He’s on the fast-track not just to Canton and the Hall of Fame, but the Hall of Permanent Relevance.

That’s a beautiful thing. Let’s give thanks.

from sfgate.com

49ers Destroy Redskins: Colin Kaepernick, Greg Roman Improve—Still a Long Ways Off

                                                                                            from NFL.com

That was more like it. I know it was against a 3-7 (now 3-8) team with a shell-shocked QB and a mediocre defense, but you don’t get to pick your opponents and the 49ers simply took care of business in a game they couldn’t afford not to.

Could it have been better? Absolutely. The offense stalled on some early drives and Kaep threw what should have been a very easy, and probably game changing, pick-six. But that is the nature of football; good teams make the big plays when the opportunities arise, the bad ones don’t. The Niners took advantage of their opportunities all night, and limited the Redskins when opportunities arose for them. We scored on turnovers and found the endzone in the redzone. The Redskins went three and out after recovering a fumble after a lucky non- call, and settled for two field goals. That’s good football right there. That’s encouraging football. That’s 49er football as it’s meant to be played.

Football is also a game of adjustments, and after two consecutive games where it looked like the 49ers were outcoached in the second half, you couldn’t have scripted a more dominating performance in the final quarters of this game. Vic Fangio apparently walked across the stadium and took Kyle Shanahan’s playbook from his hands, or hacked into his headset, or something, because the Niners had all the answers for the Redskins’ simplistic offense. The defense was finally rewarded with opportunities to be aggressive and play in front of a big lead, and boy did they ever deliver.

Aldon Smith is back and ready to party. Er, not party party…He’s back and ready to punish quarterbacks and clown offensive lineman; he’s going to speed rush, bull rush, spin, swim, hit and kick in the dick—anything it takes to put his signature on the game and fear in a quarterback’s eyes. It’s a beautiful thing watching that guy when his mind is right. He now has 12 sacks on Monday Night Football in less than three full seasons. He is tied for the lead among active players in that category with Dwight Freeney—a 12 year veteran.

Some major question marks surrounding the team:

Colin Kaepernick played one of the better games of his career. I’d argue it was his second best game this season, following the Green Bay game. The Jacksonville and Tennessee games come to mind too, but he had a dominant running attack those games, whereas he was pretty much asked to shoulder the load in this one and he largely delivered. Sure, the Redskins have a secondary led by DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson—nothing to write home about—but Kaep was mostly on the money with his throws and reads.

He did make at least one glaring mistake though. On third and five from our own 32 yard line Kaep took the snap and after moments of hesitation, set his feet and fired a bullet towards Boldin. Perry Riley read him the whole way and stepped in front for a likely pick-six if not for his cement hands.

The problem here wasn’t even that he almost threw a pick—it’s that he almost threw a pick after coming off his correct read to throw it to the wrong read. To Kaep’s left Kendall Hunter had swung out to the sideline, waiting for a short pass a few yards off the line of scrimmage. Hunter was essentially uncovered, with Brandon Merriweather the only defender around, and he was two yards passed the line to gain waiting to attempt a tackle. Key word: attempt. And Kaepernick saw all of this; he stared at it for a beat and then came off it. For what? For a chance to force the ball to Boldin, of course.

 Kaep looks left—can't quite time up his eyes directly on Hunter—and decides to go instead...

...to his right for no discernible reason whatsoever

which leads to this blurry clusterf**k of screengrab

which thankfully led to this, as opposed to 10-10 tie.     (all screengrabs from NFL.com — full highlights HERE)

Kaepernick has time and again referred to his job as a QB as being to ‘give his playmakers an opportunity to make plays.’ Was there ever a better chance to let Kendall make a play? Make the easy throw, put the ball in his hands and let him take on Merriweather one-on-one in the open field. He didn’t and almost threw a pick in the process.

Inexcusable.

Greg Roman was much better in this game. The run game got more creative, much to the titillation of John Gruden. We finally saw some of those misdirection runs and multiple pulling guards that we’ve come to expect from G-Ro. Some were more successful than others, but it was nice to see him go back to his bread and butter, instead of slamming his head into a wall running the same stretch play with Frank Gore over and over.

Still, this game wasn’t some sort of panacea for the reservations I harbor for Roman. I’m sure I’ll be writing something in the very near future about my issues with him as our offensive coordinator. Nothing about this game particularly lessened my worry about those issues. That said, give credit where credit is due, and the Niners scored three more touchdowns than the opponent, so I’m not going to criticize too harshly in the immediate aftermath of such a performance.

I already hit on the defense a little earlier, but let’s double-dip here and really take time to appreciate their dominance. Alfred Morris was averaging 5.0 ypc coming into this game and was held to a very respectable 3.7 ypc. RGIII was stuck throwing passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage all night long. The tackling was superb all around. The pass rush was finally unleashed and they absolutely wrecked Washington in the second half. It helps when you’re playing a QB with some serious issues, but it's not as if Washington was considered to be a second coming of the Jaguars heading into this game, and no one is denying RGIII’s pure talent, so it’s not as if we beat up on an infant or anything.

Let’s be honest: Defense can’t be played much better than that.

So what’s the major takeaway? We are a good team. We can be a great team. We can be a Super Bowl winning team. The offense just needs to give the defense a chance. We need to sustain drives to give them a rest, and we need to score points to allow them to unleash some aggression.

That is the key to this year’s team: Can we be aggressive, can we maintain aggression?

This isn’t the 2011 Niners. Conservative football won’t fly around here anymore. That doesn’t mean we need to throw it 40 times a game. Not at all. But we do need to start fast and we need to finish off opponents before they know what hit them. Our best blueprint to win is no longer to turn a game into a slugfest. It’s to hit the opponent in the mouth early and then slug them continually before they can shake it off. Be the aggressor and stay the aggressor.

We need to be less Ali and more Tyson. Forget floating like a butterfly and stinging like a bee; we need to hit like a bull and then hit like a bull again. 

NFL Week 12 Retrospective: Another "Great" Brady-Manning Game, the Wild AFC Wild Card Chase, and a Long Look Forward to the NFL Draft + More

                                                                                                          from nfl.si.com

It’s probably not a good sign for my career in sports writing to begin with the most overanalyzed matchup of the last decade, but I feel like I can’t possibly write a week 12 retrospective column without acknowledging the fact that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning just played an overtime game on Sunday Night Football. I hate Tom Brady. I like Manning, but I constantly feel as if I have to let people know that he really isn’t some sort of quarterback messiah sent from the heavens to let us mortals bask in his glory. The guy is a master at the line of scrimmage, but come on. We already have a quarterback messiah and he’s currently in Green Bay packing fresh snow straight off the sidewalk onto his collarbone. He’s even got a fantastic stache going. Peyton could not grow that stache.

As for the game itself, my friends and I switched back and forth between it and the Grey Cup (much to one of my friend’s dismay…On another note, former undrafted free agent signee of the San Francisco 49ers Kory Sheets put Saskatchewan on his back do and broke a Grey Cup rushing record in the process). The game itself was something of an enigma to me. It should have been a great game; I mean it was an overtime game between two Hall of Famers at the ends of their careers—perhaps the last time Peyton takes the field at Foxboro. The problem is, with a game with so much supposed drama, I really didn’t feel any actual drama.

Where was the surprise in that game? Could it have been anymore scripted? I’ve seen this game before, it was like déjà vu of a moment I didn’t care to have. When the Broncos went into halftime with a 24-0 lead, my friend turned to me and said, “Patriots are going to come back.” Of course they were; I told him I legitimately wouldn’t be surprised. And I wasn’t. 

There was no oh-my-god moment where I’m sitting at the edge of my seat disbelieving that Tom Brady was leading a wild comeback against Peyton Manning, who—with the wind at his back—kept running the ball as if a 24, then 17, then 10 point lead actually meant something. I feel like this was every game Manning and Brady have ever played all chewed up and regurgitated. Maybe that’s what some people wanted.

Maybe part of my dispassion for the game was the fact that I know I can’t watch ESPN or NFL Network until Thanksgiving because they’ll be rubbing themselves to this game for 45 minutes of every hour for the next three days. I just can’t help but think the best way this game could have ended was with the Patriots completely falling apart in the second half and Peyton running up the score because his dad’s fantasy team really needed a big day from Jacob Tamme, who he picked up off waivers with insider info that Julius Thomas would be inactive, sending Tom Brady into one of his patented tantrums on the sideline while Gronk laughed and thought about racially insensitive things and banging pornstars. That would have been a game worth watching. This tired script of Brady the Great coming back to defend his icy Foxboro kingdom against a noodle-armed Manning who can’t hit Demaryius Thomas twenty yards downfield in the wind is just that, tired. I’m over it.

What I’m not going to be tired of is six insanely flawed, how-can-they-possibly-be-playoff-material teams fighting for the right to make the playoffs in the AFC. The AFC is crazy. The Titans, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Jets and Dolphins are all at 5-6. I could make great arguments for each as to why they will get in the playoffs; the Titans have the schedule, the Ravens and Steelers have the pedigree, the Chargers just beat a 9-2 team on the road, the Jets have a great defense and the Dolphins are probably the most all-around talented team of the bunch. I can also make a great argument against each of these teams; they aren’t very good. They’re all under .500 and not a single one looks like it would have a chance against any other playoff team in the AFC, not even the Bengals.

I’d honestly lean towards the Ravens or Steelers because that pedigree does mean something, they have been through this before, but I just don’t see it. I don’t see this version of the Ravens making some sort of thrilling run through the playoffs, not with Ray Rice averaging 2.5 ypc on a good day. The Steelers have the oldest defense I’ve ever seen. They actually look like they’re running in sand sometimes.

It’s just going to be a lot of fun to watch these teams scrap and fight for the right to lose in one game, two if they’re lucky.

The best team in AFC that doesn’t currently hold a playoff seed is cursed. The Cleveland Browns are cursed. Their defense is legitimate, better than any still standing at 5-6, maybe the best in the conference depending on how long Justin Houston and Tamba Hali remain out. They have a solid offensive line, they have a playmaking tight end and they have a budding star in Josh Gordon—a real weapon. They also have an inept GM who traded away Trent Richardson—who admittedly had been bad, and continues to be bad, but I can’t find it in myself to say that T-Rich doesn’t make that team better. Even worse though they just lost Jason Campbell at quarterback, and that is a big loss. Honestly, think about how cursed as a franchise the Browns are, that seeing Jason Campbell leave a game as your quarterback is a huge punch in the gut. It means hearing, as Bill Simmons puts it, “the four most chilling words in football: ‘Here comes Brandon Weeden.’” And that guy was a first-rounder! Last season! Cleveland is cursed; cursed with bad luck and worse management.

As for the injury to Jason Campbell I can only say that it will undoubtedly spawn an entire two to three thousand words in the coming days. A clothesline hit around the helmet that caused a game-changing fumble recovery (for a TD) and left the quarterback in a crumpled mess on the ground. Sound familiar? I will not argue the 49ers should have won that game against the Saints, but it is time to really lay into the NFL for the absolute garbage standards they have for player safety and the preferential and arbitrary treatment they give to those players and teams they care about more.

Another cursed team? The Lions. They are cursed by Jim Schwartz and their own inability to play a consistent brand of football. A team that should be taking a stranglehold on the division while Rodgers is sidelined is instead peering over its shoulder at a team which is massively superior when its star quarterback is on the field, and that day should be coming soon.

But I don’t want to talk about the Lions, I want to talk about the guy they just lost to. Has anyone been watching Mike Glennon? Seriously, like really, really watching him? Where are all the superlatives for this kid? Where’s the hype? He’s played better since stepping in as starting QB of a team that was among the league’s worst than any of the big young guns last season—aside from maybe Andrew Luck. We were all fascinated by the new breed of mobile QBs—Wilson, Kaep and RGIII. I know I was. The amount of TV time and analysis those guys got was mind-blowing. But here’s a tall, lanky, pseudo-ginger who is quietly leading his team to wins on the strength of his arm that no one cares about at all.

And here’s the kicker: I can’t find any caveats to place on his game. There’s no read-option that can be figured out, there’s no special pass rush that contain him, there’s no defensive-coordinators catching up to his style, there’s no gimmicky, single-read offense built around him, there isn’t a strong-running game to lean on or a vaunted defense to fall back to. He’s a rookie and he’s making all the reads, making all the throws, and winning games for his team. The Bucs are winning games because of Mike Glennon, not despite him. (And OK the defense pulled through with a pick-6 and a number of other turnovers against the Lions, and Bobby Rainey ran through a non-existent Falcons defense the previous week, but still, it’s not as if they are hiding Glennon.)

I’m calling it now, and I may look like a fool later on, but Mike Glennon is for real and he’s here to stay. The guy is good.

What does this mean for the game of football? Nothing really. Nothing we didn’t know or expect. The game isn’t evolving around the “mobile quarterback.” At least not any more so than when Fran Tarkenton was playing, or when Randall Cunningham was playing, or Steve Young, or Kordell Stewart, or or or or. They’re fascinating and special, but that’s about the end of it. 

There’s only one kind of QB that succeeds in the NFL: a good one. It doesn’t matter if they’re short or tall, or fast or slow, or anything. QBs have to have it in their DNA, and the only way you can know a good one from a bad one is to watch on Sundays.

Speaking of new-agey, mobile quarterbacks, how ‘bout Cam Newton? Guy has really flipped a switch and figured it out. He’s not elite, but he’s close enough to win the Super Bowl with that defense and that coaching staff. I don’t know what Ron Rivera has been doing, but he went from a coach no one outside of Carolina knew of or cared about to one of the better decision makers in all of football—and his best decision was hiring Mike Shula to replace Rob Chudzinski. Shula got off to a slow start, but if there’s a guy outside of Sean Payton calling better games than Shula right now I want to know about him.

Aren’t the Panther really who the 49ers were supposed to be? The tough-nosed defense flying all over the field, hitting people and forcing turnovers; the chew-up-the-clock offense running the ball and putting it into the hands or their ultra-talented young quarterback for big plays and scramble-magic—it’s the blue print we all envisioned before we thought of the Lombardi trophy being hoisted above Frank Gore’s beautiful, bald, thick-ass head and neck.

I think the 9ers can still get there, and I think that with a healthy receiving corps we can be better than the Panthers. I’ll take Frank, Vernon, Crabs, Boldin and Mario over DeAngelo, Greg Olsen, Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn any day. The question is whether or not Kaepernick can emulate the fantastic play of Cam Newton and whether Greg Roman can call a game better than a high school coordinator.

Still, sometimes we as 49er fans have to put things in perspective. It might feel as if we are the worst off among all the preseason Super Bowl contenders, but then there’s Green Bay sliding without Rodgers and the Ravens whose offense has been more poorly coordinated than ours. But there are no teams in the entire NFL who’ve had more disappointing seasons than the Texans and Falcons. That’s obvious.

We all know this. Not only were those two teams popular picks to win their conferences, they were a popular Super Bowl matchup. Some major sports pundits called a Houston and Atlanta Super Bowl less than fourth months ago! I don’t know how they’ve kept their jobs, or got them in the first place. I should have their job. I want it.

The crazy thing of it is, that while I was never very much on the Falcons bandwagon—I did think the Texans were a good team, just not a Super Bowl capable team—I don’t think anyone saw these meltdowns coming. I didn’t. Matt Schaub somehow got David Carr syndrome without the shellshock of being hit more times than a Mayweather punching bag.

The Falcons are a little more obvious to deduce; their defense was terrible last year and continued to be terrible this year and they lost Julio Jones and Roddy White for long stretches of the season. A team I expected to hover around .500 when fully healthy got the injury bug in a bad way.

Still, these are two teams that are objectively better and more talented than say the Jaguars, or the Buccaneers, or even the Jets and the Raiders and the Vikings. Yet they are in play for the No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the NFL Draft! I mean you could easily see a Chief-esque turnaround for these two teams.

Imagine…

The Texans pick first in the draft, selecting Teddy Bridgewater. If Andrew Luck can win 11 games with whatever garbage the Colts had on the offensive line and on defense in 2012, with Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton and a pair of rookie tight ends to throw too, plus a running game led by Vick Ballard, just think of the success Bridgewater could have playing in a quarterback friendly offense with a stout O-Line, Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Owen Daniels, Garret Graham and Arian Foster at his disposal—with a defense at his back that has the best defensive player on earth wreaking havoc. That’s a team with double digit wins.

Imagine…

The Falcons have the second pick in the draft, selecting Jadaveon Clowney. He immediately fixes their single biggest issue; a defensive presence, a pass rush. He makes everyone around him better, especially a secondary that has the personnel to be good. Thomas DeCoud and William Moore are a solid safety duo. Asante Samuel isn’t what he once was, but he’s still a ball hawk, and with a real pass rush he can gamble more—turn the ball over more for Matt Ryan. Same goes for two promising rookies in Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford. Julio Jones and Roddy White come back healthy, and with a defense that is even remotely average, instead of horrendous, that team could win double digit games.

The draft is supposed to promote parity, and I think on the whole it works to that end, but we could see in two consecutive years good teams coming out of the draft richer than the bad teams that need help the most.

I’ll be doing a little preview of the 49ers Monday Night game later today, so check in for that.

I also want to let it be known that I don’t care what anyone else does, I don’t care what here or his family says, when I shorten Kaepernick it’s “Kaep” not “Kap.”

Alright, after a long first article/column/rant I’ll leave you with the best thing I saw in the NFL yesterday, a bro “fight”:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfyM-GYOejk

How Things Are Gonna Work Around Here

I’m going to vent about Colin Kaepernick. I’m going to defend him until I don’t. I’m going to sing the praises of Trent Baalke, Jim Harbaugh and the entire front office. I’m going to harp on little errors by anyone on the team that deserves it. I’m going to discuss the history of the 49ers I didn’t witness, and I’m going to really discuss what I have seen with my own two eyes. I’m going to give you facts and opinions, hope and despair. I’m going to be passionate. I’m going to bleed red and gold. I’m going to say things about Frank Gore usually reserved for heroes and saints—of which he is both.

I’m going to tell you who to start and who to sit. I’m going to apologize. I’m going to gloat. I’m going to predict, prognosticate and prophesy. I’m going to work the waivers like a wizard, and I’m going to write all about it.

I’m going to dismantle the legacy of Eli Manning piece by piece. I’m going to hate on Tom Brady. I’m going to heap lavish compliments on Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Aaron Rodgers, J.J. Watt and Joe Haden. I’m going to complain about unnecessary flags and arbitrary NFL nonsense. I’m going to glorify the gridiron.

I’m going to focus on football, but I’m going to touch on it all—the world of sports is my domain. I will venture outside this domain. I will mercilessly slander Baz Luhrman for his disgusting and torturous adaptation of a masterpiece. I will tolerate Leonardo’s appearance in such a disaster. I will get excited about Coachella. I will muse on the lyrics of Thom Yorke. I am going to have you searching shelves in bookstores for Neuromancer and anything Joseph Conrad.

I’m going to celebrate and I’m going to criticize. I’m going to rant and argue, dissect and analyze. I’m going to be deadly serious about things which matter very little in the grand scheme of it all. I’m going to be funny when I can be and probably when I shouldn’t be. I’m going to use colloquialisms, fragments and whatever else I see fit to tell the story. I’m going to use words like colloquialisms. I’m going to be wrong a lot. But I’m going to be right more often. I’m going to give you something to talk about.

And you?

You are going to read. And you are going to love it.

That’s how things are gonna go around here.