Pass Rushers: The 2014 Draft Class Examined

OK this is where it gets interesting. I intended to order this series of positional rankings and evaluations based upon the 49ers’ needs as I saw them. When I started writing these like three weeks ago or whatever (how time flies), I probably would have gone with safety at this point. With Aldon Smith doing whatever the hell he’s doing and probably out for an extended period of time I’m going to jump pass rusher over safety as a top priority.

Here are some reasons for my doing this:

Yes Corey Lemonier was very impressive as a pass rusher in his rookie season. Yes I like him a lot and have very high hopes for him as a player. Yes Dan Skuta and Lemonier did platoon very well together in the five games we played without Aldon Smith…BUT…

1) You can NEVER have enough pass rushers. Baalke knows this and clearly places a premium on pass rushers based on his previous draft-day decisions.

2) We are one more run-in with the law or injury away from having a very mediocre pass rush and linebacking corps. Could you imagine if Ahmad Brooks or Lemonier or even Skuta went down with injury? It’s honestly a horrifying thought.

3) Personally, I not only enjoy evaluating pass rushers more, I’m much better at evaluating pass rushers than safeties. Check my past rankings (B.B. '12 / B.B. '13) and you can see this clear as day. I had Eric Reid ranked well outside the 1^st Round, but I generally nail it on pass rushers. For my own selfish reasons, if for some reason I don’t get around to more evaluations I’d rather have pass rushers on public record than safeties.

4) As this blog isn’t completely meant for 49er fans (though I doubt fans of many other colors read it) I feel it’s appropriate to prioritize the more valuable position. Pass rushers are always at a premium for all 32 teams. Safety is usually a team specific need in the early rounds.

One last thing of note: I’m grouping together the “pass rushers” regardless of their college position or their position of best fit in the NFL. Some guys will fit much better in specific schemes, but when it’s all said and done teams find ways to get pass rushers on their roster and on the field regardless of their scheme fit (Bjoern Werner, widely considered “just” a 4-3 end, was drafted by the 3-4 playing Colts as an OLB). I will make a note of each prospect’s presumed position of best fit and their assumed scheme versatility, but any of these guys can be taken by any team running any defense and I wouldn’t be surprised so neither should you.

from nfl.si.com

1. Jadaveon Clowney, South Carolina (6’5”, 266 lbs.)

But Khalil Mack. But Clowney has work ethic issues. But the hype. But, but, but.

Shut up. Just shut up. You sound stupid.

Jadaveon Clowney is the best pass rusher in this draft. He is the best pass rusher for any scheme and for any position. He can stand up and rush from a two-point stance off the edge. He can put his hand in the dirt and bend the corner on a speed rush from a three-point stance in a wide-9 set. He can line up at the 5-technique and bull rush his way to the QB. He can line up inside in a four man front and shoot the gap to penetrate.

He was built by some fictional gridiron gods to rush the quarterback.

Ideal length? Check. Ideal weight? Check. Ideal speed? Check. Ideal agility? Check. Ideal explosiveness? Check, check, and one more check. Ideal instincts? Check.

Clowney is as quick as Von Miller, as natural as Aldon Smith, as athletic as Julius Peppers, and packs a punch like J.J. Watt.

Clowney is once-in-a-decade. Clowney is the best player in this draft.

He also isn’t that much better than the next best pass rushers, because this draft class is absolutely loaded.

Clowney is a top-3 pick. If he somehow makes it past pick No. 2, there is no chance he makes it past Jacksonville at pick No. 3.

from buffalo.com

2) Khalil Mack, Buffalo (6’3”, 251 lbs.)

Fine, I caved. I’ve had Anthony Barr above Mack for a while, but I’m starting to lose complete faith in Barr after watching more and more of his tape.

Mack, on the other hand, is a steady presence for Buffalo, pretty much dominating the competition every single game, be it against some crap college I barely knew existed or the Ohio St. Buckeyes. The guy is explosive. His first step is second to none. He does remind me of Von Miller in a lot of ways, but I don’t think he’s got quite the same looseness and bend around the edge.

He may be more powerful though, and I do think he is a more complete player than Von Miller, who is pretty much a one-trick pony—although that one trick is extremely useful and important and he does it amazingly well—bust through the line of scrimmage and penetrate.

Mack seems to have more strength to anchor and hold the edge against the run and the instincts and vision to drop into coverage and roam the middle of the field more. Whereas Miller is strictly an edge player, I think you could move Mack all over the formation, even standing him up as an inside backer to blitz the quarterback in more exotic looks.

Mack also has a knack for forcing fumbles, holding the all-time NCAA record in that category. That’s a valuable trait, and one that is probably as instinctual as it is learned.

He is very developed as a pass rusher in terms of technique and variety of moves. Throw on a game and you’ll see him go through the entire book of moves; swim, spin, rip, bull rush, speed to power, bend the edge, loop inside, jab step, etc. The guy knows how to toy with left tackles.

He gets knocked backwards of Clowney for two reasons; his size and his level of competition. 6’3” is adequate for a pass rusher, but not ideal. He may struggle against more rangy and athletic tackles as the next level, not so much as a pass rusher where his explosive first step probably mitigates the few inches he loses to longer players, but in the run game, where he may lose leverage in an anchor position. Mack also played in the MAC (no pun intended), which in no way at all compares to the talent levels and game-in game-out rigors of competing in the SEC.

Mack’s size does somewhat limit his scheme versatility. He can’t rush from a down position in the inside of a four man front. He actually would probably need to bulk up if he were asked to man a 4-3 right end spot primarily. He does not have the bulk to play power end (or left end) in a 4-3. He is probably best suited to being a 3-4 outside linebacker, but he can be moved around the 3-4 at will, and put his hand in the dirt in obvious passing situations.

Mack is a top-8 pick. He will not make it past the Minnesota Vikings. I doubt he makes it out of the top-6.

from bleacherreport.com

3. Anthony Barr, UCLA (6’5”, 255 lbs.)

If you were building a 3-4 OLB you would end up with Anthony Barr. He’s basically the exact same size and build as Aldon Smith. Let’s use Aldon as the baseline for our comparison here.

Aldon played 4-3 DE in college, and actually occasionally lined up inside as well to rush the passer. That background made him a dangerous pass rusher from the day he stepped onto an NFL field. Aldon has superior strength and instincts when it comes to getting to the quarterback.

Barr is a bit more thin framed (just a bit) and considerably less powerful than Aldon Smith. He does, however, mimic Aldon’s insane burst off the edge and his unparalleled ability as a “run and chase” pass rusher—closing speed to sack the quarterback from the blindside before they can even sense the danger coming.

Barr also is a more fluid athlete than Aldon. What he lacks in power he makes up for with absurd agility and looseness for a man of his size. Having played OLB in college Barr already has some background dropping into coverage and even playing in man coverage against tight ends. Is he great at either of these things? Not really.

But Barr is also just a baby when it comes to playing the position. He entered college as a running back, only making the switch to OLB in 2012, where he made an immediate impact. In his first two seasons playing OLB ever, at any level Barr racked up 23.5 sacks and 41.5 tackles for loss. Against the Pac-12. That is crazy good.

Barr projects as the ideal 3-4 OLB, but he can play OLB in a 4-3 in a similar role to Von Miller, and he can even bulk up and be asked to play primarily as a 4-3 right end, though I don’t think that is really all that wise given his skill set.

Given a couple years in NFL weight training to continue to add to his frame and power, plus the necessary development he’ll get both as a pass rusher and in coverage, it’s not hard to see Barr as a perennial all-pro in a 3-4 scheme.

Barr should be picked in the top-10, and he probably will be, but if he’s not he won’t last for much longer. His range is picks 5-20.

from cowboysblog.dallastimes.com

4) Kony Ealy, Missouri (6’4”, 273 lbs.)

There are couple general trends working in Kony Ealy’s favor. First and foremost is that the “raw athlete” pass rusher has grown in popularity over the last few years, and for good reason as they tend to make an immediate and lasting impact. Think of Jason Pierre Paul, Aldon Smith, Chandler Jones and Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah.

Secondly is that he is a Missouri Tiger, and for whatever reason Mizzou just pumps out quality defensive lineman. Justin Smith is a Tiger, Aldon Smith is a Tiger, and last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, Sheldon Richardson, came out of Mizzou as well.

I personally think that Kony Ealy and Ziggy Ansah are extremely comparable prospects, and Ziggy was the fifth overall selection last year. They have practically the exact same body type and athletic prowess. Both are explosive rushers for their size, but both lack the hip fluidity to function primarily as 3-4 OLBs so they are by far and away best suited to play 4-3 end. Ealy has the size to play on either side of the line as a DE, as well as man the middle of a four man front on passing downs.

Ealy’s single weakness—and that’s actually misleading because it’s a weakness that is far ranging—is his development as a football player. He has all the tools, but very few of the tricks. That problem has become increasingly solvable and in a decreasingly short amount of time. Pass rushers are in such high demand that little things like “development” and “football instincts” can largely be ignored in favor of “crazy-ass athleticism and size,” with the feeling being that the former things can be taught. It seems like more often than not nowadays coaches and GMs are right about this.

So, more than any other position (BY FAR), I am willing to overlook development in favor of natural ability and athleticism with pass rushers. Sure, Ealy plays like a Pop Warner kid. His pad level is too high, he is horrible at establishing and maintaining leverage, he has a limited array of pass rush moves, he gets washed out of the play because he uses bad technique and doesn’t anchor with his lower body (trying to outmuscle offensive lineman with nothing but his upper body), he has really bad eye discipline and loses sight of ball carriers and quarterbacks on the move or off play action.

But the guy is 6’4” 274 and moves like someone half his size and plays a position where all those things listed above can be taught relatively quickly to players that are serious about learning and where physical ability trumps taught techniques anyway, so he’ll be drafted in the first round and rightfully so.

In fact, I would draft him in the top-10, definitely top-15, but I suspect his true range is somewhere between picks 15-32.

from thenewsportsguru.com

5) Scott Crichton, Oregon St. (6’3”, 273 lbs.)

Crichton has grown on me somewhat as I’ve done my evaluations, partially because I’m starting to like him as a player more, and partially because I like other pass rushers less and less. Trent Murphy I’m looking at you.

Crichton is by no means a finished or developed product, but he’s not as raw as Barr or Ealy. He has great burst off the snap and he is the most physically developed (in terms of musculature) of all the pass rushers so far listed. At 6’3” 273 Crichton is a powerful player and he uses his strength to his advantage. He is a good tackler and defends the run well.

Crichton’s biggest flaw is his stiffness. He doesn’t consistently display the necessary fluidity to bend the edge. He sometimes looks a little slow and awkward when he attempts pass rush moves that require lateral agility (like a spin move).

He is also somewhat raw as well. He plays with poor pad level fairly often, and he definitely could use refinement with his pass rush moves.

However, Crichton was a very productive pass rusher in a very good conference, so he’s clearly got some sort of blend of talent and development and effort which allows him to get to the quarterback. He is stout and strong at the point of attack and he is a tenacious, high motor defensive end. He defends the run better than any other the other 4-3 ends I have evaluated thus far.

Due to his hip tightness and lack of overall athleticism Crichton is probably limited to teams that run a 4-3, but he does offer the versatility to line up on either side of the line as well as in the middle due to his bulk and wide frame.

Crichton will likely be selected between picks 20-40, and I have him graded as a borderline first rounder. 

Wide Receivers, Part Two: The 2014 Draft Class Examined

No intro here, let's just get down to business.                                                  (... to defeat the Huns!)

from zimbio.com

6. Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt (6’3”, 212 lbs.)

Jordan Matthews is Jerry Rice’s cousin, and he has some pretty impressive records of his own. He’s the SEC’s all-time leading receiver, which is really saying something. Sometimes production like that simply can’t be ignored, especially when it is coming against the best competition in college football. So whatever presumed weaknesses Jordan Matthews has, they might not ever manifest in a way that stops him from producing at the NFL level. Hell, his uncle is the best receiver of all time and I don’t think Jerry was ever really confused as a Bo Jackson-esque all-world athlete.

Jordan Matthews has pretty much the ideal body type to play WR in the NFL. He’s got good height, adequate weight (though his frame is still relatively thin and he could stand to add even more bulk), and great arm length and hand size. He has incredible, strong hands, but he does have his fair share of drops, mostly due to lapses in concentration. He’s the only player of note on the offensive side of the ball for Vanderbilt, so he was pretty much always trying to put the team on his back and was sometimes pressing so hard he let his eyes come off the ball, leading to drops.

He ran well at the Combine, showing he has the speed to play at the next level, but don’t confuse Matthews with a deep threat. He possesses the speed to get behind a cornerback in single coverage, but he’s never going to blow by anyone and catch the ball five yards from the nearest defender. Matthews is a prototypical possession receiver that has a bit more straight line speed than an Anquan Boldin or Mohammed Sanu.

He is a smooth athlete, but he is not sudden or agile. He is not great after the catch, and is limited with the ball in his hands. He will do most of his damage and eat up the most ground before the ball even touches his hands. He does not consistently separate because he lacks first-step explosion and suddenness in and out of his breaks, but he is great at making contested catches, and is a savvy route-runner, so he is open more often than not.

Matthews biggest weakness is his overall athleticism, which is just adequate. It is difficult to project him as ever being a prolific, game-changing receiver that puts an offense on his back the way he was at the collegiate level. He’s just got too many athletic limitations.

His biggest strength however (just like his uncle’s) is his limitless competitiveness and intensity on the field. He is a willing blocker, hard worker, and competes ferociously for the football. Despite his limited athleticism, Matthews will probably be a good to great player at the next level simply based upon his work ethic and intensity. He is an ideal No. 2 receiver to pair with a more athletically gifted wideout that can take pressure off Matthews. He can line up in the slot and win on the outside.

He compares to Reuben Randle, but I expect bigger things from Matthews because he has a better set of hands and a fiery passion for the game. I grade him out as an early second round pick, but his range is anywhere from 25-50.

from utsandiego.com

7. Davante Adams, Fresno St. (6’1”, 212 lbs.)

Davante Adams actually compares in many way to Jordan Matthews. He does not have great speed, but it is adequate enough that he can separate on vertical routes against single coverage. He is much more sudden than Matthews, but is less developed as a route runner. Given his young age and limited experience, it is possible that with proper development Adams could develop into a better route-runner than Matthews because of his added agility. He has similar balance and body control (i.e. amazing).

His hands are incredible. He’s made some insane one-handed grabs. He’s going to be on Sportscenter’s Top 10 more than once before his career is over. He has good arm length and adequate height, so his catching radius is pretty big. He also is a great leaper (39.5 inches in the vertical) so he has the natural frame and athletic ability to go up and get the ball at its highest point.

He compares to Michael Crabtree as a receiver, but lacks Crabtree’s run-after-the-catch abilities and his strength to beat press off the line of scrimmage. Adams should be a good No. 2 possession receiver at the next level with the potential to function as a low-end No. 1.

I have him graded in the early second round, but his range is anywhere from 25-50.

from news.yahoo.com

8. Kelvin Benjamin, Florida St. (6’5”, 240 lbs.)

I honestly don’t know how to grade this kid.

He is one of the most intriguing athletes at any position. There just aren’t many people on earth—much less ones that just caught the game-winning touchdown in the BCS National Championship game—that are 6’5”, 240 lbs with 35 inch arms and hips as fluid as Kelvin Benjamin. It’s easy to fall in love with his potential.

However, he is incredibly raw and while he has pretty good speed (especially for his size), he is not a true burner. I still believe with all my good-sense that he is faster than Mike Evans on a football field, if not in the 40-yard dash. Just watch them play.

There are two comparisons to NFL players I can make, but they are horrible, horrible comparisons, because they suggest something about Benjamin I don’t mean to imply. However, his body type and athletic ability does compare to Jimmy Graham and Calvin Johnson. He is not as fast as Calvin but has a bigger frame, and he is not as tall and big as Jimmy but has much more fluid hips. The reason these are bad comparisons though is that it is so, so rare for guys of his size to reach their potential and really take the NFL by storm. 

There is Jimmy Graham and Calvin Johnson, and pretty much no one else, because the others fall by the wayside. Benjamin has the chance to make that sort of impact at the next level, but the odds of it happening are actually fairly slim if we're being honest.

Benjamin could easily end up being the single best offensive player to come out of this draft, but he could also be a huge bust. In fact, he has bust written all over him; limited playing experience, limited production, limited refinement and fairly advanced age with all those things considered (23).

He is an intensely limited route-runner. He alternately displays great hands on acrobatic catches and poor hands on simple throws (sometimes on consecutive targets). His effort is generally good, but there are times when he seems to be going through the motions and not playing with a full motor. His size should make him an excellent blocker, but his technique is so bad that he is actually one of the worst blocking receivers I’ve seen on tape.

He’s all over the map, but he’s too intriguing not to put in the top-10, and he’s too physically gifted to fall out of the second round.

He should be chosen between picks 35-60, but he’ll probably be swooped up between picks 15-40.

from coloradoan.com

9. Paul Richardson, Colorado (6’0”, 175)

This guy has grown on me during every step of the draft process. Cooks has been getting all the attention as the “next DeSean Jackson,” but if any prospect in this class resembles DJax it is Paul Richardson.

He is the best pure speed receiver in this class and he has all the defining characteristics of your typical deep threat; adequate height, slim frame, quick first step to accelerate off the line of scrimmage and long strides to build up speed down the field, plus those undefinable “second and third gears” to separate from defensive backs at the tail end of a vertical route.

His weaknesses and strengths are obvious. He is fast as shit, but he is small and injury prone. He lacks the build and strength to consistently beat press-man coverage or man the slot consistently. His route tree is probably somewhat limited due to his lack of bulk as well.

Add to his lack of size his inconsistent hands—he is not a natural hands catcher, sometimes trying to trap the ball with his body—and you have a prospect that has some pretty serious flaws as a receiver.

But you can’t teach the kind of game speed Paul Richardson has, and you also can’t find many receivers of his natural ability that are also team captains (this guy is a saint compared to DeSean Jackson). I absolutely LOVE watching Paul Richardson block, because he blocks with tenacity and heart and is not afraid to stick his nose in against guys twice his size to try to free up his teammates, but he is just too small to ever make an impactful block. He never stops trying though. It’s awesome.

Guys like Richardson are few and far between, and if he hits his ceiling he is this year’s DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace, and if he doesn’t he’s an undersized speed receiver that can be used on occasion (like Donnie Avery).

I have him graded as a solid second rounder, somewhere around picks 45-60, but his range is anywhere from 33-100.

from rantsports.com

10. Jarvis Landry, LSU (5’11”, 205 lbs.)

If there’s a guy that deserves the term “possession receiver” more than Jarvis Landry I don’t know who it is. He really does remind me of Anquan Boldin. He’s tough as nails, fearless across the middle, and is probably among the top two or three receivers in the class at making contested catches. I can’t see this guy not finding a niche and succeeding in some capacity at the NFL level. Kelvin Benjamin is the ultimate boom-or-bust receiver, and Landry is his complete opposite. He should be a steady presence wherever he goes.

He is a solid route-runner, fairly good after the catch, and much stronger than his measurables would suggest.

He’s also the most physically limited of all the top receivers in this class. He barely broke an official 4.8 at the Combine. He has no utility as a deep threat, besides the ol' Anquan Boldin streak to back shoulder throw down the sidelines, which yields absolutely zero opportunity for yards after the catch.

He can man the slot due to his superior toughness over the middle, and he has the strength and savvy to win on the outside and create just enough separation to give his quarterback a window to throw into.

I’m a Landry fan, but he has practically no potential to ever be a true No. 1 receiver at the next level, so he really can’t be picked in the first round or valued above guys that do offer that potential. He is a valuable receiver prospect though because he should be a productive player for years to come.

I grade him as a late second rounder, and he will likely be picked between 50-100.

Honorable Mention

11. Cody Latimer, Indiana (6’2”, 215 lbs.)

12. Donte Moncreif, Ole Miss (6’2”, 221 lbs.)

13. Allen Robinson, Penn St. (6’2”, 220 lbs.)

14. Martavis Bryant, Clemson (6’4”, 211 lbs.)

15. Jared Abbrederis , Wisconsin (6’1”, 195 lbs.)

Wide Receivers, Part One: The 2014 Draft Class Examined

The intervening time between these draft-analysis posts are always greater than my hopes and expectations. There’s a good chance that I won’t get to every position group in the next month, but I’m going to try.

Hopefully within the next week I will have finished with corners and wide receivers at least, which are the positions I (and every other person that follows football) expect the 49ers to target in the early rounds, which is kind of the point of this whole top-10 at each position exercise anyway—for 49er fans of course, who I exclusively pander to in this blog.

As with CB, the wide receiver group is deep. In fact, it’s probably the deepest position group in this draft. There are at least four guys I have that grade out as definite first rounders, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see up to six drafted in the first 32 selections. Actually, I wouldn’t be that surprised if there were seven taken in the first 32, but I’d be a little surprised.

from tddaily.com

1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson (6’1”, 211 lbs.)

Like Justin Gilbert, the WR group starts at Sammy Watkins as the clear cut No. 1 prospect, and ends with a lot of argument at Nos. 2-5. Don’t let the Mike Evans fanboys convince you differently. Watkins is in a class of his own, and is one of the elite prospects in a loaded draft. I won’t say he’s “can’t miss,” because that’s just dumb (anyone can bust), but he’s the closest thing you can get to can’t miss at the WR position. He’s pretty much on par with A.J. Green and Julio Jones when they were coming out.

Watkins isn’t overly big, but he’s got good size for a receiver. At 211 lbs. he is solidly built, and while he’s not exactly fearless over the middle, he doesn’t shy away from contact, and I can’t think of a time I’ve seen him “alligator arm” a pass. He has the toughness to play in the slot some, so he is versatile enough to be moved around the formation to create mismatches.

He has great, but not exceptional hands. I’ve seen him drop some catchable balls when he turns his head up-field before he’s secured the catch. Stuff like that is coachable, but it’s also something that generally plagues guys like Watkins, who are so explosive they are always looking to turn every catch into a big play.

OK, so we’ve gotten through the weaknesses. Yep, those are his weaknesses; he’s a mere slightly-above-average height for a WR and not a 6’5” freak, and he has really, really good, but not world-class hands.

What he does have is incredible production at the collegiate level, which he accrued running a complete and varied route tree beginning as a true freshman. He’s a polished route-runner, which is fairly unique when discussing guys with his talent level coming out of college. Normally guys with his speed and explosiveness can run about five routes effectually, but Watkins is pretty damn good at most of the routes he’ll be asked to run in the NFL.

He’s got elite speed. Throw away the Combine numbers of 4.43—which is damn fast, but still not quite indicative of the speed he shows on tape—I’m fairly certain that on gamedays no receiver outside of maybe Paul Richardson or Brandin Cooks will be able to blow the top off a defense like Sammy Watkins. And he’s got 3-4 inches and 20-25 lbs. on those guys. He’s also the best run after the catch receiver in this draft, and I don’t even think it’s close.

You’ll see comparisons to Torrey Smith because they’re both black and have dreads that flow in the wind as they streak downfield on vertical routes, and the comparison isn’t that far off, but I still don’t think it’s exactly indicative of the type of receiver Watkins is and can be. Watkins is a much more polished and complete receiver coming out than Smith was. In fact, I think another apt comparison is to a different player with long dreads, Cordarrelle Patterson. He’s got similar athletic ability and skills to make people look foolish with the ball in his hands, but unlike Patterson who was very, very raw as a receiver, Watkins is not (if I haven’t made that clear).

He will be a top-5 pick.

from sportillustrated.com

2. Marqise Lee, USC (6’0”, 192 lbs.)

Sorry world, I still like Lee better than Mike Evans. You can’t make me change my mind. You can’t make me! Nanananananananana.

Look, I get it; Mike Evans is a mammoth that ran as fast as Lee in the 40-yard dash and made so many highlight plays with Johnny Manziel that ESPN is so used to using footage from Texas A&M that they put a pro day catch in their top-10 plays of the week (y’know, one of those fake scenarios where there is no pass rush or coverage…or any defense AT ALL).

In my mind, Lee is a better football player, and if I’m a GM I’m drafting him before Evans. It’s close, sure, but nothing Evans does in shorts and a form-fitting Under Armour shirt is going to move him ahead of Lee in my positional rankings.

Lee is actually super similar to the guy ranked above him, except he’s slightly worse in pretty much every area…which basically means he’s still really, really good and borderline elite.

He’s a polished route-runner, he has great hands and he’s got speed on tape that shows up way more than Mike Evans (screw the timed numbers). Lee is fast. Really, really, seriously fast. He’s as elusive in the open-field as anyone (including Watkins), but his slighter build and lack of strength makes him worse at breaking tackles and wearing contact, so he’s not quite the complete run-after-catch receiver Watkins is. Lee can play all three receiver positions. He has the straight line speed to keep a safety over the top of him when he lines up outside, and he has the agility and explosion to thrive in the slot, though he may lack the toughness to be a prototypical slot receiver. Still, he has the versatility to be moved around the formation and create opportunities for other players and mismatches for himself.

I’ve brought this up, and I’ll bring this up again: Marqise Lee had three years of great production in a very good conference. In one of those years he outplayed and outranked Robert Woods, a player who performed admirably in his rookie season in Buffalo, despite poor QB play from his fellow rookie E.J. Manuel and some dude named Thad Lewis. Lee is a better prospect than Woods, and I think a lot of teams are probably kicking themselves for letting Woods slide into the second due to injury concerns. (I wish I had put a higher grade on him).

Lee deserves to be a top-15 pick, but I think he’ll ultimately go somewhere between 15-25.

from draftbrowns.com

3. Mike Evans, Texas A&M (6’5”, 231 lbs.)

OK, I really do like Evans, I promise. I think the kid is a beast. I also think he’s one of the most overrated prospects at any position in this draft, and that’s only because he’s being talked of as a blue-chip, top-10 pick and this guy has some serious flaws as a prospect.

Everything that there is to like about Mike Evans you can see by typing in “Mike Evans highlights” on YouTube and looking at his Combine numbers. Not too many guys on earth can run a 4.5 40-yard dash at 6’5” 231 lbs. and then jump 37 inches vertically…AND have 35 1/8 inch arms. He was built by some gridiron god to run the fade route in the redzone. He’s probably going to score a lot of touchdowns.

That said, the 4.53 number is ridiculously misleading. He isn’t that fast on the field. Do you know why he has so many ridiculous contested highlight catches? Because he’s always covered. Why is he always covered? Because he’s sort of slow and not that great at separating. He’s not Calvin Johnson people. Still, this isn’t really too damning of a quality, because even when he’s covered, he’s kind of not covered, because he’s huge and he’s good at making contested catches. This is why people will bring up Alshon Jeffery as a comparison.

But relax. Alshon Jeffery has some of the best hands in the entire league, and he is absolutely incredible at attacking the ball in the air. Jeffery is also much more athletic now that he isn’t fat (he dealt with weight problems in college). Jeffery was undoubtedly a top-10 pick before he got fat and started punching fools in the face in college. Let’s not get it into our heads that he slipped into the second round because people questioned his ability on the field. They questioned his judgment and his eating habits off it. Mike Evans is not up to par with Jeffery as a prospect on the field.

He has tight hips. Whereas Jeffery can sometimes line up in the slot and make do there, Evans will basically be running the same routes from the slot that he runs on the outside, which is to say that he is an outside receiver only. Sure, a team can put him in the slot in the hopes he can do some Jimmy Graham type shit and just run up the seam, but Mike Evans cannot play “slot receiver.” His route tree is limited at best…That pro day everyone is up in arms over and can’t stop talking about? He didn’t even run a post route. And he’s supposed to be the premier vertical receiver in the draft.

Not only is his route tree limited by his lack of development (only two years playing receiver collegiately), it will always be limited due to his physical limitations (i.e. the tightness of his hips and lack of explosive burst off the line and in/out of his breaks). He can obviously still succeed at the next level, but he’s going to fit some systems and with some quarterbacks much better than others. (And actually, a guy like Kaepernick could be the perfect style of QB for Evans, so don’t think I’m going to be upset if the Niners go up into the teens to nab him. I just won’t be happy if we trade away the farm to get into the top-10 for him).

Anyway, I’m shitting on Evans just to do it at this point. It’s not personal to him exactly; I just don’t understand the hype. He’s not so much better than Kelvin Benjamin on tape (in fact I basically see the same player with less pure athleticism); he’s just got better numbers on paper. He’s also really good at out-jumping guys to catch contested passes, which is a valuable asset for sure.

I grade Evans as a guy that should be picked somewhere between pick 15-30, but he’ll probably be selected by in the top half of the first round.

from boltbeat.com

4. Brandin Cooks, Oregon St. (5’10”, 189 lbs.)

I’ve been on the Cooks bandwagon for a while. I love this kid. What is sort of funny is that while I am really high on Cooks, I actually think he might get overdrafted. I thought he’d be a steal for the Niners at pick 30, but with reports that the Jets might take him with the 18^th pick, I’m actually thinking his 40-time actually might have gotten him hyped-up a slight bit too much.

He is not a DeSean Jackson type receiver, despite what other people (and Cooks himself) might suggest. Jackson is an outside deep threat. Cooks doesn’t have the long speed that Jackson does. Or if he does I haven’t seen it on tape besides the time I watched him burn a 4.3 40 at the Combine. That’s not to say he can’t be a deep threat, I just don’t see him as one of the top two or three pure speed receivers in the game (which DJax is).

Cooks is much tougher, has better hands, and the ability to run a more varied route tree though. He’s not a diva and he doesn’t shy away from contact. Cooks is the best slot prospect in this draft, and he has the strength to do some damage as an outside receiver as well. I’ve compared him to Steve Smith and I will continue to do so.

That said, comparisons are tricky, and so that comparison doesn’t really justify a top-20 selection on a 5’10” receiver who isn’t quite as explosive or game-changing as Tavon Austin (who was the top receiver in a receiver weak class last year). I’m usually the first guy to value undersized players more than their general projection if they show toughness and durability, but some things you can’t teach and size is one of them. A 5’10” inch receiver is at a disadvantage in a lot of respects, so it’s hard to label Cooks as an elite prospect.

He had 16 touchdowns in his final collegiate season, so he has displayed the ability to get in the endzone, but it’s hard to project that kind of production to the NFL level given his size. Still, it can’t be ignored, and Cooks is certainly the best redzone target of all the undersized receivers in this class.

I hate saying stuff like this, but if Cooks was two inches taller and twenty pounds heavier he’d be in competition with Lee and Evans to be the second receiver off the board. He isn’t though, so he’ll be drafted somewhere between 18-35. I have him graded between 25-30.

from joe.ie

5. Odell Beckham Jr., LSU (5’11”, 198 lbs.)

Odell Beckham is the last receiver I would take in the first round, but in my mind he doesn’t have a solid first round grade. The board would need to fall in such a way to warrant his selection before the beginning of Day 2.  He’s a receiver I could see the 49ers drafting at pick 30 if the previous four receivers and top four corners have already been selected.

He’s fast enough to provide a vertical element to an offense, but he’s not really a true “deep threat.” He’s not going to blow the top off of defenses and create a ton of space underneath, but he can beat single coverage and get behind a corner. I just don’t know that he has enough speed to consistently command help over the top.

He also doesn’t have the best hands. Not only does he have his share of drops that arise from lack of concentration, he also doesn’t show very strong hands on contested catches, and can be outmuscled by DBs on contested throws. He isn’t incredibly aggressive or competitive in jump-ball/contested-catch situations. Despite the ten pounds he has on Cooks, Cooks is clearly the tougher, more aggressive receiver when you watch the two play.

Beckham is very fluid as a receiver, and he has pretty good size for the position. He can line up outside, and he is pretty well-suited to the rigors of playing the slot. He’s got good agility and change-of-direction skills, and would do well creating separation out of the slot. He’s pretty dangerous with the ball in his hands as well, and shows elusiveness in the open field.

He has experience as a punt returner which is a plus as well.

In my opinion Beckham grades out as a solid third receiver, with the upside to be a good second option if he develops. I do not think he shows the ability to contribute as the primary receiving option on a team.

I grade him as a player that belongs in picks 25-40, and I expect that’s the range he’ll come off the board. 

Cornerbacks, Part Two: The 2014 NFL Draft Class Examined

There wasn’t any movement among the top-5 corners since my post-Combine shakeup, but numbers five through ten are fairly different. No new names, just a different order. Since these guys are deeper down the list I hadn’t watched as much highlight footage and whatever game tape I could find of them (which was a very, very small amount by the way) but as I’ve done more homework I’m getting stronger opinions about these guys.

from h-o-dread-mfw.blogspot.com

6. Jaylen Watkins, Florida (5’11”, 194 lbs.)

I’m starting to develop a big draft crush on this kid. I might even move him above Roby and Fuller when it’s all said and done. He’s largely flown under the radar because he wasn’t even one of the starting cornerbacks on his own team (Marcus Roberson and Loucheiz Purifoy owned those honors), but from everything I’ve read and seen and heard this is the Florida cornerback to target in the draft.

He is the brother of Sammy Watkins—the soon to be top-5 pick Sammy Watkins—and he actually didn’t play a whole lot of cornerback in his final collegiate season. With Roberson and Purifoy on the outside, Watkins made the transition to safety, moving down to nickelback in three receiver sets. That move is actually one of the reasons I’m high on this kid, because it shows three things: he’s selfless and humble, he’s versatile, and he’s a good enough tackler to man the safety position on the early downs.

While he isn’t a clock-cleaner as a downhill hitter, Watkins hits with speed and violence and his highlight reel is filled with as many great tackles as it is pass-breakups and interceptions.

He’s starting to gain steam heading into the draft, especially after outperforming his higher rated teammates at both the Combine and Florida’s pro-day. Reports prior to those two events mainly questioned his athletic ability and top-end speed, while praising his hip fluidity (maybe the most important ability to have when it comes to coverage). With a 4.41 at the Combine Watkins actually was among the top cornerbacks in the entire class, and while it doesn’t completely put to rest conc

erns about his “long speed” I think it’s safe to say that his athletic ability is probably up to the standards it takes to compete in the NFL.

As mentioned above, he has very fluid hips, is a willing and able tackler, and looks to have the necessary lower body explosion for the position. He generally does a good job of finding the ball in the air, and he is very aggressive in competing for contested catches. He also put up 22 reps at the Combine (whereas Purifoy and Roberson put up 6 and 8 respectively) so his dedication in the weight room is evident.

That last sentence is obviously a plus overall, but it is disconcerting that despite his strength (which is very good for the position) he is still so thin-framed. It’s not that big of a deal, but having a thicker build generally helps to protect against injury. Watkins’ arms are also fairly short for a corner, especially of his height, so his length is not great. He may have difficulty covering taller receivers or competing for jump balls. And while I just defended his athleticism, I only meant to do so to prove that I don’t view it as a fault. He definitely does not display enough athleticism on the field to get the benefit of being called a “great athlete” the way Gilbert or Verrett or Roby might.

Still, I have high hopes and high expectations for Watkins, who I think is a dark horse candidate to crack the first round, and who I have a solid second round grade on. He may not have the capability to be a shutdown or No. 1 corner at the next level, but I think he will make an early and lasting impact on whatever team drafts him. He certainly is capable of being a very solid starting cornerback and an above-average nickelback, which would make him very valuable indeed. While it wouldn’t end up being a huge shock to me if he was picked at the end of Round 1, Watkins is likely a Day 2 pick.

from bleacherreport.com

7. Pierre Desir, Lindenwood (6’1”, 198 lbs.)

I’ve been beating on the table for Desir for a while. I’m a big, big fan. He’s only 7^th for two reasons: he went to a small school so the level of competition he played was weak, and I don’t think he has the ability to play the slot.

He has the ideal height, weight and body type for a cornerback. He ran a 4.59 at the Combine which isn’t great, but it’s not bad either, and I don’t think it’s indicative of his playing speed. On tape it seems as if Desir has great long speed (if he were a receiver he’d be called a “long strider”) so he should have no problem defending the deep pass. He also has 33” inch arms, which is tremendous for a corner, so his length will only add to his ability to defend against passes over the top.

He has absolutely phenomenal ball skills. He had 25 interceptions in his collegiate career, a whopping 9 of which came in 2012. Those totals would be smaller if he were playing against better competition, but the fact that he attacks the ball in the air with tenacity and displays soft hands to catch the football can’t be discounted just because he had future car salesman throwing passes in his direction.

At the Senior Bowl he played very well. He’s inconsistent in his technique, which is 100% expected of any small school prospect, but he held his own against “superior” competition and even came away with an interception during the game itself (off a stupid trick play, but hey, they all count the same).

Due to his lack of development at a position that requires sound fundamentals and technique it would be hard to take Desir any earlier than the second round. However, with proper coaching he projects as a No. 1 cornerback at the next level. With his size and speed he can make a big impact on special teams right away.

I should circle back to the point I made in the initial paragraph about my disbelief in his ability to play nickelback. Desir shows pretty fluid hips for a corner of his size, and I haven’t seen any inability to flip his hips and run with deeper routes, or problems in his backpedal, but he (unlike Justin Gilbert, for example) doesn’t display the necessary lateral agility and short area explosion to be able to cover quicker slot receivers. With three-receiver sets becoming so prevalent in the NFL, and the ability to cover the slot at such a premium, I do give higher grades to those players that project well at that position. Desir doesn’t in my opinion, but he does project well to a traditional corner role. Very well.

Desir, like Watkins, may make a late push up the boards and flirt with Round 1, but he’ll likely be a Day 2 pick, coming off the board somewhere between 40-100.

from miamiherald.com

8. Marcus Roberson, Florida (6’0”, 191)

Roberson will probably flirt with the first round, and will likely be drafted before the previous two guys come off the board. He has good size and length for the position and he’s a fairly good athlete. He’s actually fairly comparable to Kyle Fuller as a prospect, in that both are lean corners that could stand to add a little extra bulk at the next level, but whereas Fuller has passed all the physical tests during draft season, Roberson has not.

For a guy that is supposed to be adding weight to his frame to compete at the next level, 8 reps on the bench press is pretty shameful. It just doesn’t look good. Not only does it bring into question his ability to handle press-man schemes and compete against physical receivers, it also (and more importantly) brings into question his dedication to his craft. The fact that he followed up that low total on the bench with a so-so 40 time of 4.61 didn’t help his cause.

I’m not too concerned about his 40-time, because like Desir, Roberson is a lengthy corner and he shows fairly good long speed on tape. And the reason Roberson isn’t suffering quite as badly as his fellow under-achieving teammate, Purifoy, is because he has fairly good tape. Roberson is typically in good coverage, and plays with sound technique. He also has good instincts in coverage and rarely looks lost or out of place, though there are a few “low-lights” of him being too aggressive on double-moves and giving up big plays, but that can be fixed with coaching and better discipline.

Like Desir though I don’t know that Roberson has the necessary lateral agility it takes to play the slot. I also don’t know if he’s physical enough to handle slot duties either. He’s just an OK tackler. Being limited to the outside hurts his stock slightly in my estimation, especially because he’s not yet ideally suited for all techniques necessary to be great on the outside.

He’d probably be best utilized in a scheme that plays a lot of off-man technique. He has the skills to be good in zone, and he has the length to be good in press-man, but he’s going to need to get stronger to handle bigger receivers in press, so he might struggle in that area early on in his career.

Roberson is going to come off the board in the first two rounds. Corners with his length and hip fluidity are hard to find, and he held his own against SEC competition so there won’t be any concerns about his development or level of competition. If he wants to become a top corner though he’s going to need to dedicate himself to the weight room and embrace the physical aspect of the game. I’d like to see him come up stronger in run support, as he sometimes it looks like he’s waiting for other guys around him to make the tackle.

from boltbeat.com

9. Keith McGill, Utah (6’3”, 211 lbs.)

If you can’t tell yet, I’m not 100% enamored with the whole “tall corner” phenomenon quite yet. I very often peruse the forums of 49er fan websites, as well as the comment sections of NFL and ESPN and it pains me how simple some fans think football is. Size in a cornerback is certainly a commodity, and a rare one, but it’s honestly not really at the top of the list when it comes to making a good evaluation of their pro potential.

When Keith McGill ran a 4.51 at the Combine at 6’3” and 211 lbs. I think every uninformed fan of every single team in the NFL added him to the second or third round of their mock drafts. Because he’s the next Richard Sherman right? No. And people forget Sherman was a 5^th round pick. There were flaws with him as a prospect, so much so that not even the genius John Schneider chanced an early draft pick on him. Sherman, for as much as I’d like to discredit him, maximized his talents through hard work (and/or PEDs) and competes with tremendous, tremendous intensity. He’s not great because of his size, but that certainly helps I guess.

I do like McGill more than Stanley Jean-Baptiste—the other DB with tremendous height in this class—and it is because I think he has much better movement skills, which is the primary skillset necessary for the position. Still, all 6’ 3” corners are pretty tight-hipped, especially in comparison to their smaller counterparts, so it’s not like McGill has elite—or even great—hip fluidity, lateral agility and change of direction skills. He’s adequate in all areas, and pretty darn good considering his size.

McGill is built for the outside and the outside only, which is perfectly fine. If he refines his technique and maximizes his potential he will be one hell of an outside cornerback. He has long arms to go along with his height and 4.5 speed, so he should have no trouble defending the deep ball or contesting in jump ball situations.

My biggest issue with McGill is his competitiveness. Every scouting report on the guy says he displays underwhelming physicality despite his size, and this is evident on tape. He’s like a 240 pound RB that wants to juke guys out instead of running them over. With his size you’d like to see him play aggressive: aggressively jam at the line, aggressively compete for contested catches and aggressively attack the line of scrimmage in run support. He rarely does any of these things. Maybe that can be taught—though competitiveness and instincts aren’t usually taught at the NFL level—or maybe he will develop that tenacity at the next level of his own accord, but until he does any comparisons to Richard Sherman or Brandon Browner or whoever else are so off base I can’t even begin to tell you because this evaluation will transform into a full-fledged rant.

He isn’t a great tackler from a form standpoint, and his ball-skills are average at best. His hands leave something to be desired to say the least. He’s a project at CB, but he has the size and speed to be one worth undertaking.

Basically, he needs to go to Seattle to become the cornerback everyone wants him to be. They will feed him amphetamines and steroids and he’ll be subjected to Pete Carroll’s gum-smacking rah-rah bullshit on a daily basis so his frustration and aggression will grow to the point it needs to be at to be an extremely successful outside cornerback.

McGill is a Day 2 pick. I doubt he’ll slip beyond the third round.

from footballsfuture.com

10. Phillip Gaines, Rice (6’0”, 193 lbs.)

Alright so this is probably high for Gaines. There are guys that are likely going to go ahead of him (Bashaud Breeland, E.J. Gaines, even Purifoy, etc.) and maybe rightfully so, but I have a gut feeling about this guy and I wanted to write a little something about him, so he snuck into my top-10.

He has prototypical size and length for the position, but he primarily played zone concepts in college, which is actually a big plus for a guy of his size and physical ability. His experience in zone should help his route recognition and should have helped him develop good eye discipline and ball skills. He also displays good quickness to explode to the ball, so his short area quickness seems to be a positive area.

He really caught my (and everyone else’s) attention with a 4.38 40-yard dash at the Combine—as well as two very impressive times in the 20 yard shuttle and 3-cone drill—to display pretty elite athleticism and agility. Guys his size that post those numbers are difficult to find.

Still, like many of the other corners before him, Gaines could stand to get stronger, especially because he doesn’t have that much experience in man coverage (or at least less than most corners entering the draft). Rice also doesn’t play the toughest schedule in college football, so his level of competition is lacking.

While he’s not the most aggressive or physical corner, Gaines shows adequate skills in run support, and in general seems to be willing to get his hands dirty. He plays with competitiveness and is excellent at competing for the ball. He has some of the best instincts to find the ball in the air and make pass breakups of any corner in this class, and that’s a large part of why I’ve moved him so high on my board.

He’s a little underdeveloped, physically and in his technique, but he has the athletic ability to be an impact cornerback at the next level, and displays enough of the necessary traits to make a good nickelback with the right coaching. He definitely is not a Week 1 starter, but a team that can stash him as a depth player and special teamer and coach him up might have themselves a steal in the mid-rounds.

Gaines might be drafted in the second round, but I think it’s probably a better projection to say he’ll come off the board somewhere in Rounds 3 and 4, with an outside chance he slips into the fifth.

There are other corners worth discussing, but as I’ve mentioned before I don’t get paid to do this stuff, and there are like 10 other position groups I’ve got to get to before the end of May, so that’s all I’ve got for y’all. Hope it was enlightening. Wide receivers are next.