Week 3 Preview: A September 'Must Win'

Now, for a lesson in Overreaction Theater: This Sunday’s game in Arizona is a must-win contest.

I know it’s early (really early) in the season. Still, I can’t help but think this is a critical moment for this team, and something of a signpost game—which way are things going to go this season?

One of the things that makes the NFL so great, so unlike other major team sports, is the short schedule. There are only 16 games, and all of them matter tremendously. There is no time for early season adjustments. No time really to “figure things out.”

Sure, a team can start off slow and get hot at the end (and can win a Super Bowl doing so—ahem, '12 Ravens and '11 Giants), but in our division and our conference these early struggles can put you way behind the 8-ball.

from sfgate.com

Total, merciless domination. I will be happy with nothing less.

Even at this point in the season there is a MASSIVE difference between 2-1 with the division lead and 1-2 in third place.

Like most, I am guilty of being overly silent regarding the Cardinals. They do not get enough credit as a true threat to the NFC West crown. I’ve always acknowledged them as a good team, but the fact is, for the 49ers the Seahawks are a much greater threat, so the Cardinals tend to get buried in every discussion about the division.

This week, that ceases to be the case. We have no greater enemy than the Arizona Cardinals and our attention should be focused on them alone.

I seriously have the tiniest amount of interest in the Seahawks’ Super Bowl rematch. They’ll handle the Broncos like they handled the Packers. They’re at home and they’re still really, really good (even if they’re nowhere near as good as every so-called “expert” who crowned them repeat champs after Week 1 said they were. How easy it is to forget the Seahawks aren’t the same team away from home.)

We can’t find triumph in the defeat of other teams, we need to just win games. Every damn game. So while it would be a cherry on top of a 49ers' win if the Seahawks lose, I’m not even hoping for it (OK I’m hoping for it a little). They should win that game. We should win our game. We need to.

Look, if we lose this game we aren’t buried. I know this. There’s 13 more chances to prove we are a good team. We have plenty of excuses to point to if we do lose. We are without our top cornerback, our top pass rusher, our top defensive player, our starting nose tackle, our Pro-Bowl right tackle and most likely our all-world tight end.

But we can’t simply tread water either. There needs to be a sense of urgency about this game. Things aren’t going to get a whole lot easier for us after this game, with a date against the Eagles, who have clearly been a tough team to beat through the first two weeks, next on the schedule.

The Niners need to get back the momentum we so embarrassingly flushed away last week; silence the critics and the fans like me who care too much to not panic over a Week 3 game.

How can we do this? I have some ideas.

from ninerfans.com

1) Unleash Kaepernick. This probably sounds counterintuitive, he just had a horrendous game. However, if we’re going to make it through this stretch of games without some of our top talent and a defense that is solid but not up to its normal standards, we’re going to need to place some extra responsibility on Kaep and the offense. Let him loose.

So far the offense has revolved around running plays and long developing intermediate routes. I would like to see Roman dial up a real game-plan built around the passing offense. Easy completions on quick hitting routes, wide receiver screens, etc. Let the passing game open up lanes for Gore and Hyde.

Whenever the 49ers, under Harbaugh, have become a “pass-first” offense, even this passing game is predicated on the threat of the run game. It is typically out of two tight end sets, with heavy play action and roll-out elements. Sure the ball is being thrown more, but it’s under the guise of our power-run game.

Get rid of the disguise and let Kaepernick operate. Let him be a weapon.

from ninersnation.com

2) Speaking of weapons—get Bruce Ellington and Carlos Hyde involved in the passing game. Hyde is a big, powerful back, but all evidence has proved him to be a very good pass-catcher. Swing him out of the backfield and let him get downhill on some smaller cornerbacks and safeties. There are more ways to be physical on offense than simply bashing it down the throat of a defense (which I’m not advocating getting away from completely).

Let Ellington play some receiver and dial up some plays where he is the primary target. Ellington can be more than just a chess piece to get other guys open, or to provide misdirection on run plays. He was a vacuum in the preseason, and he’s tough as nails. Let the kid play some meaningful snaps. The offense needs a spark, and Ellington is pure electricity.

from sfgate.com

3) Blitz. Fangio has always been a reluctant blitzer, but we are playing a team with a fairly brand new offensive line and a backup quarterback. Bruce Arians likes to spread the field and run his backs out of the backfield on routes. That has typically but a lot of pressure on his quarterbacks to either get the ball out quick or stand in the pocket and take a beating. Ask Ben Roethlisberger how painful it is to play in an Arians system.

Playing coverage and rushing four (a so far ineffectual four) is playing into the Cardinals' hands. Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are big, big receivers. They will uncover if given enough time. They are not very sudden, however, and may struggle to separate early in routes on quicker hitting plays.

Drew Stanton has a strong arm, but he’s not particularly accurate. Like the quarterback he backed up for years in Detroit—Matt Stafford—he can throw a beautiful deep ball, or throw a frozen rope, but he also has a penchant for wild interceptions. Pressure him into inaccurate throws and be aggressive in the secondary. We can force turnovers against this offense, we just need to be aggressive, aggressive, aggressive.

I think that’s the big takeaway from last week’s debacle, and just the general state of the NFL: Be aggressive.

For those of you who watched the Falcons and Buccaneers game—that’s what we should have done to the Bears on Sunday night. The beginnings of those two games were not very different at all. The difference was that the Falcons sunk their teeth in and the Niners went limp.

I’m hoping we learned our lesson and we take out every ounce of frustration on the Cardinals this Sunday, because we need to.

49ers 20 - Bears 28: OPPORTUNITY SQUANDERED, PUSSYFOOTIN' TO BLAME

“I’d bet almost anything this is a pass to Crabs in the endzone.”

These were the final words I messaged to a friend during the timeout preceding our the 4^th and 9 play which ultimately ended the game.

It was, and like too (two) many others before it, the pass hit the ground and the other team cheered and smacked helmets while the 49er offense walked back to the sideline quietly, wondering what went wrong.

And while this incompletion didn’t signal the end to our season, just an early season game (albeit one with extra implications; the christening of our new stadium, and a chance to take an early leg up on the Seahawks), in many ways the failure remained the same.

The headline of Matt Maiocco’s post-game recap pretty much sums this one up: "Penalties, Turnovers, Lack of Killer Instinct Haunt 49ers inLoss."

Give Maiocco credit for word choice, because I can’t think up anything better than “haunt.” The same ghosts awake to haunt this team year in and year out. With the exception of those against the Seahawks, it is hard to remember a single loss in the last three years when the 49ers were decidedly outplayed by an opponent.

This isn’t to take anything away from the Bears necessarily, because they made big plays when they needed to make them. Just last week I went on for the entire opening of this column about how a football game is the summation of the plays each team makes.

So forgive me when I twist this maxim a little to say that this game was equally about the plays the 49ers didn’t make (or the mistakes they did) as it was about the plays the Bears did make.

Before I get into what I see as the largest failure of the 49ers, I want to touch on the officiating, which was horrendous.

Both teams had horrible calls go against them, that’s not the issue really. It was the management of the game by the referees. They brought the game to a grinding halt, not allowing for any rhythm to be established. And they did not do this to call egregious fouls, but to micromanage seemingly every single play.

The pace of the game was disastrous, and that falls squarely on the referees and the ineptitude with which they called the game. It really caused momentum swings for both sides, and more than anything made the game difficult to watch. I can only imagine it made it more difficult to play as well.

"You know what this game could use some more of? Penalties."
SAID NO ONE EVER.

To state the obvious issues with the game and my take on the lasting impact of what we all saw; the pass rush was largely nonexistent and wholly ineffective, Colin Kaepernick turned the ball over four times and the Bears cashed in for four touchdowns in the redzone.

I stated my case for Kaepernick last week and I have my sights on a longer, non-game-specific piece about him and my faith in him. I’ll use his own word to describe his performance, “Terrible,” but I don’t think he made a lot of mistakes with his reads. The delay of game penalty taken on the final drive was vomit inducing. The first interception showed a lack of detail to not at least look off the single high safety. The second interception was a poor choice in ball placement—he should have thrown to Crabtree’s inside shoulder—and a bit of luck on the part of Kyle Fuller. The third was almost a product of the first two, as he was trying to make a play while down in the game and forced a ball I think he normally wouldn’t have let fly under other circumstances. It was also a great defensive play by Fuller yet again. I’m not overly concerned with Kaep to be honest.

The defense letting in touchdowns I am not super worried about either. Three of the four were to Brandon Marshall against the man-to-man coverage of rookie Jimmie Ward who is a full five inches shorter and 30-40 pounds lighter. It was poor game-planning on Fangio’s part, which is rare indeed, and I think it will serve as a learning experience not just for Ward, but for everyone involved with the defensive side of the ball.

The pass rush is the major concern of the three. It was nice to see Aaron Lynch get increased snaps, but I think it was a poor choice to have them come at the expense of Ahmad Brooks. I know Corey Lemonier was the expected pass-rushing replacement to Aldon Smith, but after two games of completely ineffectual play (I don’t even think he has a quarterback hurry yet), it is time to look elsewhere for pass rushing proficiency. This is an issue that will likely last until Aldon comes back, but Fangio needs to continue to experiment with different personnel groupings to find something better than what we had tonight. Because this just isn’t going to cut it.

Two down, Seven to go.

As damning as all three of those things were on this specific night, an even more concerning problem reared its ugly head (yet again).

Of all the things which haunt the 49ers in these bang-your-head-against-the-wall losses we’ve suffered through two to three times a season during the Harbaugh erea it is the aforementioned “Killer Instinct” which seems to me the most culpable.

Why the hell, on a 3^rd and goal from the 6, up by 10 with a full 20 minutes to play, are we running an inside handoff out of the shotgun? And why is this so common (and ineffective) that it ceases to surprise a typical fan and just cause an immediate and depressingly familiar upwelling of sadness (“oh my god not again”) and rage (“come the fuck on!”).

First down, fine. Second down, fine. You need to run the ball down there, I get it. Everyone knows that. I’m not advocating for a pass only goalline offense. But unless you are a yard or less away, or intend to go for it on fourth down, there’s no reason for running the ball on third down anymore. It’s an acceptance of defeat, and it’s gutless.

"Come on Greg, you know you want to. Just for ol' times sake."

With the new rules in place to compel referees to throw a flag against a pass defender at even the slightest provocation, paired with the creativity of “pick” plays and timing routes (that we’ve seen from many other well-coordinated offenses…) finding success in the redzone in the passing game is easier than ever.

So why do we repeat the same tired mistakes?

Jim Harbaugh vaguely referenced something about a “run/pass option.”

So, the reporter asks, Kaepernick audibled to a run?

“No.”

Were there two plays called in the huddle, a different reporter asks?

“No.”

Trying to read into anything Jim Harbaugh says to the media is already a dangerous proposition, but when it is regarding to play-calling, you’ve pretty much entered the “nothing can be believed zone.”

BUT, with this ultimate caveat mentioned above, what little he says seems to suggest that even in the redzone, even on third down, even in a game that everyone can feel is on the verge of slipping away, a play-call immediately reverts to a run simply by the look given by the defense.

If this is the case—excuse me while I go scream into a pillow for a second—if this is the case, we need a change of philosophy yesterday. It’s disgusting.

This sort of limp-dick idiocy down in the redzone is the reason we had TWO 13-play drives stall within 9 yards of the Bears’ endzone.

The 49ers redzone/goalline offense has been the source of numerous stomach churning moments since Harbaugh took over, even during our best stretches of football.

While the 49ers tend to lean on the “lack of execution” excuse, it is clearly more an issue of creativity and—for lack of a better term—balls.

When we have the ball 10 yards away from a touchdown with three plays to get it in, we need to score. There is no reason, no reason at all, with the weapons we have that we should be consistently among the league’s worst offenses at redzone conversion rate. It’s inexcusable. Absolutely inexcusable.

"Well my general theory is that it's failed so many times, it can't possibly fail again can it? Odds are in our favor."

Give me Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde, Bruce Miller, Vernon Davis, Vance McDonald, Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Stevie Johnson and the playbook from Tecmo Bowl and I’ll score you touchdowns. Hell, give me a stick and a sandbox. Or a menu from Chili’s.

Whatever it is Greg Roman is doing, it sure as hell isn’t working (consistently) and it’s been costing us winnable games for far too long. Something, at a philosophical level, needs to change.

I’m tired of hearing about “adjustments,” when referencing our failures to punch it in. We don’t need “better execution” or “a play here or there,” we need a difference in thought process. We need to attack and we need to score points.

When you have a snake under your foot you don’t push down lightly until it suffocates, because it’s going to thrash until it sinks it’s fangs into your ankle. You smash its head in and grind your heel into the bits of blood-covered brain and skull fragments.

49ers Defeat Cowboys: WAXING POETIC & LASERS

from 49ers.com

It is always good to win. It is especially good to win against the Cowboys. And it is especially, especially good to win against the Cowboys in Dallas (Arlington…whatever) in a dominating fashion. Very few things tickle my fancy quite like watching Tony Romo look a fool. Though it happens with a fair bit of regularity, his dejected, eyes down, head-shaking walk back to the bench after an absurd decision turned interception has yet to lose its luster. It’s brilliant television.

But this win means a little more to me—had a little extra oomph—than every your typical win against the Cowboys, who, if we’re being serious, aren’t really our rivals anymore. They are in a traditional, nostalgic sort of way, but it’s hard to take a team seriously when their only great triumph over the last decade is an almost anomalous adherence to mediocrity. No, this wasn’t a great win because it was against the Cowboys, but because this game was a cymbal crash in the ears of every moron who’d been whispering the coming of the 49ers demise. Do you hear the ringing in your ears morons? That’s the sound of the glorious truth: The 49ers are really, really good at football.

from ifc.com

The 49ers are as good at football as this guy is at being really, really, really ridiculously good looking.

WAIT A SECOND

The resemblance is striking...but
Pete Carroll can dere-lick my balls, capitan

As any typical naysayer will tell you, the game could have gone in a very different manner. Our run defense was the worst it has ever been in the Jim Harbaugh era (and probably extending back to the Singletary era too). Without the turnovers, we probably would have been under a lot more pressure…

But this is revisionist nonsense. You can’t really play the “if” game in any major sport, football especially so. Teams are responsible for making their own opportunities and taking advantage of those opportunities. A game of football is, at its very core, a summation of the plays each team makes. It’s so stupidly obvious that most people overlook this extremely important fact. It’s useless wondering what the game could have been like if the 49ers didn’t start the game off with a fumble recovery for a touchdown. Or if Kaepernick hadn’t kept his footing for the TD strike to Vernon Davis. Or if Eric Reid didn’t follow that with an interception returned to the 1-yard line, setting up an easy third touchdown.

The fact is we made those plays. Dan Skuta did muscle the ball out of Demarco Murray’s hands. Chris Culliver was in the correct position and did use sure hands to pick up an awkwardly rolling, egg-shaped object and then sprint 30-yards to the endzone with it.

The offense did open up the game on fire, Colin Kaepernick gutting the woeful Cowboys secondary with absolute lasers (ABSOLUTE LASERS!) to Anquan Boldin and Davis.

Eric Reid did read Tony Romo’s eyes and come back across his zone to make a leaping interception, which he then brought to the one-yard line with an impressive, meandering, tackle-breaking return.

from 49ers.com

So, sure, I guess if we didn’t come out of the barrel making amazing, intelligent football plays we could have been in a much tighter game. We also could have held a Cowboys offense that last season ranked fifth in the league in points scored without a touchdown if the referees didn’t make two ticky-tack pass-infraction calls against Craig Dahl and Jimmy Ward on third-downs, twice extending Dallas’ first drive to end in a touchdown.

(In all seriousness, while every game I was able to watch this weekend featured more illegal-contact and holding calls against defensive secondaries than last year, our game was head and shoulders above the rest for flags thrown on these infractions, and for the ridiculousness with which these calls were made. Craig Dahl literally laid a hand on a receiver at the 5-yard limit, not impeding his route or forcibly contacting him in any way, and he still got a flag for it—leading former Dallas quarterback and admitted Cowboys homer Troy Aikman to comment, “Well the league office isn’t going to be happy about that one.” Jimmy Ward’s penalty was equally marginal, though given the speed of the play and the fact that it was on a pass actually intended for the receiver targeted, it’s slightly more excusable.)

We could have been much more impressive in this game, especially in the trenches. Colin Kaepernick was pressured too often, Frank Gore was met by unblocked defenders at the line of scrimmage too often, and Demarco Murray was getting into the second level of our defense, far, far, far too often.

Those are things I think will be fixed. Our top three defensive linemen barely played in the preseason, and I’m sure there was a bit of rust. Ian Williams hasn’t played in a real game in one year. Ray McDonald has a lot on his mind right now (let’s not go there for now, mmmkay?). The Cowboys also probably boast the best offensive line of any team we will play this season, so it was a tough task to begin with.

We were without the entire starting right side of our offensive line. Getting Alex Boone and Anthony Davis back into the lineup immediately inserts two more Pro Bowl players into the unit. The offensive line is assured to improve fairly dramatically, and soon, when those guys are back on the field.

Jim Harbaugh, Vic Fangio and Greg Roman are not going to accept the kind of performance we displayed in the trenches again. Just won’t happen. So we’ll get better there, I’m confident in that.

In all other facets of the game we looked great.

The secondary played extremely well, and that was without our top two cornerbacks playing for the vast majority of the game. Eric Reid is going to vie for an All-Pro spot this season. Antoine Bethea absolutely rocked Dez Bryant on a completely legal hit, and he was sound in coverage all day. Perrish Cox is an incredibly underrated football player. Not saying he’s a star, but a guy that versatile and that quality should not be getting cut, and he was released by two different teams during the course of last season (one of them being the 49ers, who were lucky to get him back).

from 49ers.com

Carlos Hyde is continuing to make general managers around the league sick for passing on him (56 TIMES! 56 PLAYERS WERE DRAFTED BEFORE THIS GUY! WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON!), especially Ruston Webster and Mike Brown. It’s always fun watching a young guy come into the league and know with complete certainty that he is going to be a star, especially when said guy is drafted by the 49ers. It was almost a given he would come in immediately and run the ball hard, but his vision, balance and quick feet continue to amaze me, and even more surprising, he was solid as a rock in pass protection.

I’ve saved the passing game for last, because I really want to gush about Colin Kaepernick. There has been more idiocy, negative myth and bullshit around him than any other quarterback in recent memory (Johnny Manziel included). They say he can’t make reads or throw accurately. They say he can’t manage a game or make the right decisions.

Do you know what I saw— granted this was against a terrible defense—from Kaepernick all game? I saw a quarterback going through his progressions and making all the right reads. I saw a quarterback decisively firing passes into tight windows for third down conversions. I saw a guy maneuvering inside the pocket and courageously taking big hits to wait for receivers to gain separation and find throwing lanes. I saw a quarterback with leadership in the huddle, laser-eyed focus, complete control at the line of scrimmage, and pin-point execution after the snap of the ball.

And I saw a guy who can easily burst out the pocket to elude rushing defenders and with a flick of his wrist THROW ABSOLUTE LASERS. Colin Kaepernick throws absolute lasers.

This guy throws them

To quote coach, “I mean, in my estimation there’s only two people that could make those two plays [the 37-yard completion to Boldin and 29-yard TD to Davis on the opening drive], one is Colin Kaepernick and the other has an ‘S’ on his chest.”

To put it into glorified terms: I saw a guy worthy of playing quarterback in the red and gold, and as you—my fellow faithful—know, that’s a higher standard than any other team can lay claim to.

In Kaep I trust.