Thursday, March 27, 2014

Cornerbacks, Part Two: The 2014 NFL Draft Class Examined

There wasn’t any movement among the top-5 corners since my post-Combine shakeup, but numbers five through ten are fairly different. No new names, just a different order. Since these guys are deeper down the list I hadn’t watched as much highlight footage and whatever game tape I could find of them (which was a very, very small amount by the way) but as I’ve done more homework I’m getting stronger opinions about these guys.


from h-o-dread-mfw.blogspot.com

6. Jaylen Watkins, Florida (5’11”, 194 lbs.)
I’m starting to develop a big draft crush on this kid. I might even move him above Roby and Fuller when it’s all said and done. He’s largely flown under the radar because he wasn’t even one of the starting cornerbacks on his own team (Marcus Roberson and Loucheiz Purifoy owned those honors), but from everything I’ve read and seen and heard this is the Florida cornerback to target in the draft.

He is the brother of Sammy Watkins—the soon to be top-5 pick Sammy Watkins—and he actually didn’t play a whole lot of cornerback in his final collegiate season. With Roberson and Purifoy on the outside, Watkins made the transition to safety, moving down to nickelback in three receiver sets. That move is actually one of the reasons I’m high on this kid, because it shows three things: he’s selfless and humble, he’s versatile, and he’s a good enough tackler to man the safety position on the early downs.

While he isn’t a clock-cleaner as a downhill hitter, Watkins hits with speed and violence and his highlight reel is filled with as many great tackles as it is pass-breakups and interceptions.

He’s starting to gain steam heading into the draft, especially after outperforming his higher rated teammates at both the Combine and Florida’s pro-day. Reports prior to those two events mainly questioned his athletic ability and top-end speed, while praising his hip fluidity (maybe the most important ability to have when it comes to coverage). With a 4.41 at the Combine Watkins actually was among the top cornerbacks in the entire class, and while it doesn’t completely put to rest conc
erns about his “long speed” I think it’s safe to say that his athletic ability is probably up to the standards it takes to compete in the NFL.

As mentioned above, he has very fluid hips, is a willing and able tackler, and looks to have the necessary lower body explosion for the position. He generally does a good job of finding the ball in the air, and he is very aggressive in competing for contested catches. He also put up 22 reps at the Combine (whereas Purifoy and Roberson put up 6 and 8 respectively) so his dedication in the weight room is evident.

That last sentence is obviously a plus overall, but it is disconcerting that despite his strength (which is very good for the position) he is still so thin-framed. It’s not that big of a deal, but having a thicker build generally helps to protect against injury. Watkins’ arms are also fairly short for a corner, especially of his height, so his length is not great. He may have difficulty covering taller receivers or competing for jump balls. And while I just defended his athleticism, I only meant to do so to prove that I don’t view it as a fault. He definitely does not display enough athleticism on the field to get the benefit of being called a “great athlete” the way Gilbert or Verrett or Roby might.

Still, I have high hopes and high expectations for Watkins, who I think is a dark horse candidate to crack the first round, and who I have a solid second round grade on. He may not have the capability to be a shutdown or No. 1 corner at the next level, but I think he will make an early and lasting impact on whatever team drafts him. He certainly is capable of being a very solid starting cornerback and an above-average nickelback, which would make him very valuable indeed. While it wouldn’t end up being a huge shock to me if he was picked at the end of Round 1, Watkins is likely a Day 2 pick.

from bleacherreport.com

7. Pierre Desir, Lindenwood (6’1”, 198 lbs.)
I’ve been beating on the table for Desir for a while. I’m a big, big fan. He’s only 7th for two reasons: he went to a small school so the level of competition he played was weak, and I don’t think he has the ability to play the slot.

He has the ideal height, weight and body type for a cornerback. He ran a 4.59 at the Combine which isn’t great, but it’s not bad either, and I don’t think it’s indicative of his playing speed. On tape it seems as if Desir has great long speed (if he were a receiver he’d be called a “long strider”) so he should have no problem defending the deep pass. He also has 33” inch arms, which is tremendous for a corner, so his length will only add to his ability to defend against passes over the top.

He has absolutely phenomenal ball skills. He had 25 interceptions in his collegiate career, a whopping 9 of which came in 2012. Those totals would be smaller if he were playing against better competition, but the fact that he attacks the ball in the air with tenacity and displays soft hands to catch the football can’t be discounted just because he had future car salesman throwing passes in his direction.

At the Senior Bowl he played very well. He’s inconsistent in his technique, which is 100% expected of any small school prospect, but he held his own against “superior” competition and even came away with an interception during the game itself (off a stupid trick play, but hey, they all count the same).

Due to his lack of development at a position that requires sound fundamentals and technique it would be hard to take Desir any earlier than the second round. However, with proper coaching he projects as a No. 1 cornerback at the next level. With his size and speed he can make a big impact on special teams right away.

I should circle back to the point I made in the initial paragraph about my disbelief in his ability to play nickelback. Desir shows pretty fluid hips for a corner of his size, and I haven’t seen any inability to flip his hips and run with deeper routes, or problems in his backpedal, but he (unlike Justin Gilbert, for example) doesn’t display the necessary lateral agility and short area explosion to be able to cover quicker slot receivers. With three-receiver sets becoming so prevalent in the NFL, and the ability to cover the slot at such a premium, I do give higher grades to those players that project well at that position. Desir doesn’t in my opinion, but he does project well to a traditional corner role. Very well.

Desir, like Watkins, may make a late push up the boards and flirt with Round 1, but he’ll likely be a Day 2 pick, coming off the board somewhere between 40-100.

from miamiherald.com

8. Marcus Roberson, Florida (6’0”, 191)
Roberson will probably flirt with the first round, and will likely be drafted before the previous two guys come off the board. He has good size and length for the position and he’s a fairly good athlete. He’s actually fairly comparable to Kyle Fuller as a prospect, in that both are lean corners that could stand to add a little extra bulk at the next level, but whereas Fuller has passed all the physical tests during draft season, Roberson has not.

For a guy that is supposed to be adding weight to his frame to compete at the next level, 8 reps on the bench press is pretty shameful. It just doesn’t look good. Not only does it bring into question his ability to handle press-man schemes and compete against physical receivers, it also (and more importantly) brings into question his dedication to his craft. The fact that he followed up that low total on the bench with a so-so 40 time of 4.61 didn’t help his cause.

I’m not too concerned about his 40-time, because like Desir, Roberson is a lengthy corner and he shows fairly good long speed on tape. And the reason Roberson isn’t suffering quite as badly as his fellow under-achieving teammate, Purifoy, is because he has fairly good tape. Roberson is typically in good coverage, and plays with sound technique. He also has good instincts in coverage and rarely looks lost or out of place, though there are a few “low-lights” of him being too aggressive on double-moves and giving up big plays, but that can be fixed with coaching and better discipline.

Like Desir though I don’t know that Roberson has the necessary lateral agility it takes to play the slot. I also don’t know if he’s physical enough to handle slot duties either. He’s just an OK tackler. Being limited to the outside hurts his stock slightly in my estimation, especially because he’s not yet ideally suited for all techniques necessary to be great on the outside.

He’d probably be best utilized in a scheme that plays a lot of off-man technique. He has the skills to be good in zone, and he has the length to be good in press-man, but he’s going to need to get stronger to handle bigger receivers in press, so he might struggle in that area early on in his career.

Roberson is going to come off the board in the first two rounds. Corners with his length and hip fluidity are hard to find, and he held his own against SEC competition so there won’t be any concerns about his development or level of competition. If he wants to become a top corner though he’s going to need to dedicate himself to the weight room and embrace the physical aspect of the game. I’d like to see him come up stronger in run support, as he sometimes it looks like he’s waiting for other guys around him to make the tackle.

from boltbeat.com

9. Keith McGill, Utah (6’3”, 211 lbs.)
If you can’t tell yet, I’m not 100% enamored with the whole “tall corner” phenomenon quite yet. I very often peruse the forums of 49er fan websites, as well as the comment sections of NFL and ESPN and it pains me how simple some fans think football is. Size in a cornerback is certainly a commodity, and a rare one, but it’s honestly not really at the top of the list when it comes to making a good evaluation of their pro potential.

When Keith McGill ran a 4.51 at the Combine at 6’3” and 211 lbs. I think every uninformed fan of every single team in the NFL added him to the second or third round of their mock drafts. Because he’s the next Richard Sherman right? No. And people forget Sherman was a 5th round pick. There were flaws with him as a prospect, so much so that not even the genius John Schneider chanced an early draft pick on him. Sherman, for as much as I’d like to discredit him, maximized his talents through hard work (and/or PEDs) and competes with tremendous, tremendous intensity. He’s not great because of his size, but that certainly helps I guess.

I do like McGill more than Stanley Jean-Baptiste—the other DB with tremendous height in this class—and it is because I think he has much better movement skills, which is the primary skillset necessary for the position. Still, all 6’ 3” corners are pretty tight-hipped, especially in comparison to their smaller counterparts, so it’s not like McGill has elite—or even great—hip fluidity, lateral agility and change of direction skills. He’s adequate in all areas, and pretty darn good considering his size.

McGill is built for the outside and the outside only, which is perfectly fine. If he refines his technique and maximizes his potential he will be one hell of an outside cornerback. He has long arms to go along with his height and 4.5 speed, so he should have no trouble defending the deep ball or contesting in jump ball situations.

My biggest issue with McGill is his competitiveness. Every scouting report on the guy says he displays underwhelming physicality despite his size, and this is evident on tape. He’s like a 240 pound RB that wants to juke guys out instead of running them over. With his size you’d like to see him play aggressive: aggressively jam at the line, aggressively compete for contested catches and aggressively attack the line of scrimmage in run support. He rarely does any of these things. Maybe that can be taught—though competitiveness and instincts aren’t usually taught at the NFL level—or maybe he will develop that tenacity at the next level of his own accord, but until he does any comparisons to Richard Sherman or Brandon Browner or whoever else are so off base I can’t even begin to tell you because this evaluation will transform into a full-fledged rant.

He isn’t a great tackler from a form standpoint, and his ball-skills are average at best. His hands leave something to be desired to say the least. He’s a project at CB, but he has the size and speed to be one worth undertaking.

Basically, he needs to go to Seattle to become the cornerback everyone wants him to be. They will feed him amphetamines and steroids and he’ll be subjected to Pete Carroll’s gum-smacking rah-rah bullshit on a daily basis so his frustration and aggression will grow to the point it needs to be at to be an extremely successful outside cornerback.

McGill is a Day 2 pick. I doubt he’ll slip beyond the third round.

from footballsfuture.com

10. Phillip Gaines, Rice (6’0”, 193 lbs.)
Alright so this is probably high for Gaines. There are guys that are likely going to go ahead of him (Bashaud Breeland, E.J. Gaines, even Purifoy, etc.) and maybe rightfully so, but I have a gut feeling about this guy and I wanted to write a little something about him, so he snuck into my top-10.

He has prototypical size and length for the position, but he primarily played zone concepts in college, which is actually a big plus for a guy of his size and physical ability. His experience in zone should help his route recognition and should have helped him develop good eye discipline and ball skills. He also displays good quickness to explode to the ball, so his short area quickness seems to be a positive area.

He really caught my (and everyone else’s) attention with a 4.38 40-yard dash at the Combine—as well as two very impressive times in the 20 yard shuttle and 3-cone drill—to display pretty elite athleticism and agility. Guys his size that post those numbers are difficult to find.

Still, like many of the other corners before him, Gaines could stand to get stronger, especially because he doesn’t have that much experience in man coverage (or at least less than most corners entering the draft). Rice also doesn’t play the toughest schedule in college football, so his level of competition is lacking.

While he’s not the most aggressive or physical corner, Gaines shows adequate skills in run support, and in general seems to be willing to get his hands dirty. He plays with competitiveness and is excellent at competing for the ball. He has some of the best instincts to find the ball in the air and make pass breakups of any corner in this class, and that’s a large part of why I’ve moved him so high on my board.

He’s a little underdeveloped, physically and in his technique, but he has the athletic ability to be an impact cornerback at the next level, and displays enough of the necessary traits to make a good nickelback with the right coaching. He definitely is not a Week 1 starter, but a team that can stash him as a depth player and special teamer and coach him up might have themselves a steal in the mid-rounds.

Gaines might be drafted in the second round, but I think it’s probably a better projection to say he’ll come off the board somewhere in Rounds 3 and 4, with an outside chance he slips into the fifth.



There are other corners worth discussing, but as I’ve mentioned before I don’t get paid to do this stuff, and there are like 10 other position groups I’ve got to get to before the end of May, so that’s all I’ve got for y’all. Hope it was enlightening. Wide receivers are next. 

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Cornerbacks, Part One: The 2014 NFL Draft Class Examined

It’s been a long break but I’m ready to get back to work on this draft analysis stuff. Pro-day results are coming in and while it’s very difficult to get accurate numbers (the scouts there do all the timing by hand and have no incentive to share the results) there are generally reports when a prospect has an outstanding or disappointing workout.

I’m going to break up each position group into a specific post (or two), ordering each position group based on what I consider the 49er’s needs from most needed to least needed. The hope is that if anything changes significantly in the position groups of greatest need between now and then (which I doubt) I can always circle back before the draft and hit on these groups again. I also expect I’ll be doing some more in-depth profiles of specific players in the future too, but who knows, no one pays me for this shit.

The two obvious areas of need for the 49ers, as any casual fan can tell you, are cornerback and wide receiver. You can make an argument for either being the position of greatest need, but I’m of the opinion that it’s cornerback, so I’ll start there. Cornerback is a deep group and as it’s a position of need I’m going to try to do at least 10 of them, so I’m going to break up the position into two posts.


from steelcityblitz.com

1. Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State (6’0”, 202 lbs.)
Justin Gilbert is the best cornerback prospect since Patrick Peterson. In fact, they are actually pretty comparable prospects. Gilbert is the prototype athlete for the position, possessing great size at 6’ ft. and 202 lbs. He’s also among the fastest cornerbacks in the entire class, so unlike many of the other larger corners in the draft his recovery speed isn’t in question. Even more importantly though, Gilbert is incredibly fluid. He has absolutely no problems in his backpedal, his lateral agility or flipping his hips. I haven’t seen much of it on tape, but I expect he could play nickel in the NFL given his fluidity and agility. He does a great job of turning his head to locate the ball, and while he may not look as natural as a wideout catching passes, the seven interceptions he racked up in his final season shows ample evidence he’s a ballhawk. Gilbert is also one of the top punt returners in this class, so a guy that already is worthy of a top-10 selection in a loaded class based on his defensive prowess adds even more value with his ability to make an impact on special teams.

While Gilbert is certainly the top corner in the class, and one of the better corners to come out in a few seasons, he still has his flaws. He’s not a bad tackler, but he’s not a great one (even for a corner) and he doesn’t always show a lot of effort or physicality against the run. While it would be overboard and unfair to call him lazy or unmotivated, he certainly doesn’t always show the competitiveness or aggressiveness you’d like to see in a defender—though this is fairly typical of cover corners. Gilbert plays a lot man coverage, and while he’s pretty great at it, he could stand to get even more aggressive and physical in press-man. I assume that’s something that he’ll be taught at the next level, especially with all the dickriding that’s been going on with Richard Sherman and his borderline assaults within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage. There are some reports that label him as a diva, but that comes with the territory with guys of his talent at the skill positions. I haven’t read anything that questions his work ethic or love of the game, so I’m not overly concerned if he’s going to run his mouth at times. Most great cornerbacks have a little extra swag.

His technique is lacking at times, probably because he’s so athletically gifted and confident that he can play sloppy and still be the best player on the field, but if that isn’t fixed fairly quickly in the NFL I’d fire the coaches, not the GM for picking him.

I also can’t find many instances of him in zone coverage. I assume if I dug around more I could find it, but truth be told I’ve seen enough of his game film to know he has the skills and ability to play in either a zone or man or hybrid scheme and be fine. Maybe he’d be best off going to a team that plays primarily man coverage, but any team with a need for a corner is going to take this guy first, so it’s sort of a moot point.


from michigandaily.com

2. Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State (5’11”, 199 lbs.)
Media types that want to create antagonism or create controversy that doesn’t exist are going to compare Gilbert and Dennard as “opposites:” Gilbert the super-athlete vs. Dennard the blue-collar working man. It ain’t that simple.

Sure, Dennard is lacking slightly what Gilbert boasts most of—pure speed and athletic ability—but it’s not like Dennard is running in the 4.8s either. He’s not an exceptional athlete, but he’s a pretty damn good one, definitely good enough to be a great cover corner in the NFL.

Dennard is a technician at the position, and he plays with fire and tenacity. Dennard is the best tackling and hitting corner in the class. He’s not overly big—though he does possess good size for the position— but you wouldn’t know it when he’s coming up to hit a 230 pound back in run support. He’s a team leader and a hustle athlete. He’s a competitor.

I don’t think I’ve seen Dennard play any zone coverage at all, but he is exceptional in man coverage. He’s the top cornerback in the class at route recognition, and he always turns his head to find the ball. He’s not great at playing the ball in the air, but he attacks it and competes for it which causes a lot of pass break-ups. He would be an ideal fit for a team that utilizes a lot of man concepts, and is probably the draft’s premier press-man corner. Some draft analysts will question his ability to thrive in a zone-heavy scheme, but I think he’d fit in fine on a team that plays a lot of zone too, I just wouldn’t call it an ideal fit.

Dennard is a guy any team would be lucky to have, and a guy any fan will want to root for. His ceiling is pretty damn high and his floor is too. Given the depth of this class and his underwhelming (if not disappointing) athletic performance at the combine, Dennard is probably going to fall a lot farther down the board than he should. I have a top-15 grade on him but I suspect he’ll come off the board somewhere in the early 20s.


from tcu360.com

3. Jason Verrett, TCU (5’9”, 189 lbs.)
Verrett would be a top-20 pick if he measured in an inch taller. The difference between 5’9” and 5’10” is probably going to cost him 5-15 draft slots. While I put pretty significant stock into height and weight, I’m not going to dock Verrett like some others will for being one inch too short to be considered an “outside cornerback.”

Verrett is the best quick twitch athlete at his position, which means he has lightning fast ability to change direction to adjust to routes or the flight of the ball. He’s exceptional at mirroring a receiver’s routes, which makes him very good in off-man coverage. He’s also probably the best corner in the class when it comes to making plays on the ball. He attacks it in the air and displays great hands for a corner. His vision and agility also make him well-suited for zone schemes in the NFL.

Verrett is also a very willing tackler, which is outside the norm for smaller cornerbacks. I can’t say that he’s an outstanding tackler when it comes to form and success rate, but he’s pretty darn good for a corner of any size, and his aggressiveness is top-notch. The fact that he has such extreme change-of-direction skill and the willingness to be physical makes Verrett a prototypical nickelback. The proliferation of three receiver sets in the NFL makes a guy that can blanket a slot receiver nearly as valuable as a guy who can lock down the outside. Verrett Island might exist between the hashes instead of outside of them.

Verrett’s only real negative is his size, which does limit his ability to be successful in schemes that rely a lot on press-man technique. It also limits his potential to be a shutdown corner than can blanket any team’s top receiver. Verrett simply does not have the size to go toe-to-toe with Demaryius Thomas, much less Calvin Johnson. Still, Verrett has elite athleticism for a player of his size (4.38 40 and 39” vertical), so I don’t doubt his ability to be effective on the outside, he’s just not going to be dominant out there.

Verrett has also dealt with injuries in the past (he is currently dealing with a shoulder issue) so his durability is a question mark, especially with his size, even though his toughness isn’t.

Verrett should come off the board in the latter half of the first round, and most likely will, but a fall into the second round isn’t out of the question.


from secondroundstats.com

4. Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech (6’0”, 190 lbs.)
Fuller started gaining some recognition and rising up draft boards following a surprisingly strong show of athleticism at the Combine. He’s a guy that is easy to like, but hard to fall in love with. He doesn’t really display any exceptional or dominant qualities, but he also doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses.

He has slightly above average speed, fairly good change-of-direction ability, and acceptable ball skills. These physical abilities coupled with his field awareness and competitiveness make him an above average cover corner who displays a solid all-around game. He’s a guy with a high floor but limited ceiling.

He could stand to add a little more weight to his frame to get stronger in jam situations and run support. He sometimes get outmuscled for the ball or boxed out on routes by physical receivers, but that isn’t to say he shies away from contact.

I haven’t seen him do it with my own eyes, but he apparently was a special teams stalwart for the Hokies, which is always a big positive. It demonstrates a love for the game and a willingness to do the dirty work to help the team win. It will also ease the transition to the NFL, as he will more than likely be asked to play special teams. He was a team captain and three year starter with no injury history of note.

Fuller is the kind of guy that will probably start a lot of games for an NFL team, and might be skilled enough to serve as a No. 1 corner, but it’s difficult to project him being a perennial pro-bowler or shutdown corner (though it’s certainly not out of the question). I expect he’ll come off the board somewhere between picks 20-40.


from theb1gtime.com

5. Bradley Roby, Ohio State (5’11”, 194 lbs.)
Roby is a volatile prospect. He entered the season as the No. 1 corner in the country by most accounts, but after missing the season opener with a team instituted suspension Roby had a fairly disappointing campaign and fell out of favor with scouts and armchair GMs as Gilbert and Dennard and Verrett solidified themselves with outstanding years.

Then he ran a 4.39 at the Combine and everyone and their mother started talking about Roby as a top cornerback again. Myself included. But unlike some who are willing to move him above Dennard based on that 40-time alone, I am still wary of him as a prospect. He has all the physical tools to be a very good cornerback, but he makes too many mental mistakes on the field to warrant a solid first round grade based on his expected contribution at the NFL level alone. Add in potential character concerns and Roby is pretty hard to peg when it comes to where he deserves to be drafted.

Roby has good-enough size, great speed and quickness, and a physical style of play that most teams will love. He isn’t outstanding at making plays on the ball, but he doesn’t have hands of stone either. Roby is probably second only to Verrett in terms of change-of-direction and foot quickness, so he projects well as a nickelback which significantly increases his value.

My biggest issue with Roby is his head, and I mean this literally and figuratively. Literally, he sometimes is looking in the wrong direction. You can’t cover guys that you aren’t looking at, and you can’t catch or knock away a ball you can’t see. Too often Roby is staring into the backfield or peeking into an adjacent zone and not doing his job in coverage. Equally as often he is in good coverage but fails to locate the ball and allows receptions. Figuratively, I question his “memory.” Corners need to have short-term memories. If you get beat once, you can’t let it affect the next play and get beat again. Roby plays way too hot and cold. When he’s playing well, he’s playing fast and confident. When he’s getting beat, he’s getting destroyed. Jared Abbrederis of Wisconsin caught 13 passes against Roby’s coverage last season. 13! There are also some character concerns as I mentioned earlier, so that doesn’t bode extremely well for him either. He’s also not a great tackler, and has difficulty shedding blocks, though his willingness to be physical is a positive.

With proper motivation and coaching Roby could be a steal because he probably has top-20 talent, but of all the top corners in this class Roby has the biggest bust-factor. He could be picked anywhere in the first two rounds and I wouldn’t really be surprised.



Part 2 soon…