Love the 49ers the Right Way: A Word on the Art of Excuse-Making

I was going to do a little postgame analysis; work through some specific key plays and key coaching decision in the 49ers-Seahawks game (nothing is forthcoming on the Pat-Broncos game, Broncos dominated, the end.) I will do that soon, because there was a lot of great plays in this game, a lot of plays that could be considered turning points. A lot of things to look at and appreciate and mistakes to look at and learn from. I’m not going to do that yet though, because I have a rant that’s been building up inside me and grew to a fever pitch this morning.

I really, really, really do.

You know what bothers me the most about this game? The excuses made by 49ers fans that I see on every corner of the internet. Could a few things have gone our way that didn’t? Certainly. I was even apt to say after last year’s Super Bowl loss that the referees had as much to do with it as the Ravens. But then again we (probably) benefited from a power outage and subsequent delay. It’s football, shit happens.

This game though doesn’t even compare, doesn’t even come close by any stretch of the imagination, to the sort of unlucky nonsense the 49ers went through in last year’s Super Bowl. Bruce Miller wasn’t held so badly his feet came off the ground while he was being, quite literally, carried by his shoulder pads as Jacoby Jones raced by him for a second-half opening touchdown.

That running-into-the-kicker/roughing-the-kicker call is hardly some instance of horrid officiating. When I watched it live I thought it was of the five yard variety as well. Maybe by textbook definition of the rule, due to where the defender hit Andy Lee, it should have been enforced as roughing the kicker, but there was no malicious intent—the sort of operative definition of a “personal foul.”

But this isn’t even really relevant to what I’m actually talking about. I would be less inclined to speak out against people who wear the same color jersey as I do on gamedays if their ire was directed towards officiating (which, sure, it wasn’t perfect, but it was good enough).

No, I’m bothered—sincerely bothered—by the amount of “hypothesis excuses” (as I’m going to term them) I’m seeing 49ers fans throw around. As you all know from elementary science a hypothesis is an “if, then” statement; the beginning step of the scientific method. For example, if I lower the temperature of water to 32 degrees Fahrenheit, then it will turn into solid ice. You test your hypothesis and it either confirms or denies it the veracity of the statement. Good lesson class.

Every status, every comment, every forum post seems to be dedicated to some sort of alternate reality version of the game that didn’t happen, “but could have, if only _____, then _____” (usually the latter blank is some variation of “the 49ers win”).

Here’s my hypothesis: If football was played like this, then everyone would be the Super Bowl Champion.

The other steps of the scientific method are observation and experimentation. In our extended metaphor we’re going to say that the experimentation part is when the game is actually played, and the observation part is when we watch it.

What about that game can make anyone think anything otherwise than the Seahawks should have won? The experiment was played out, in front of our very eyes in the form of a professional football game—we observed it—and a pretty conclusive statement was made. Players commonly refer to this as “looking at the scoreboard.”

But, but but. But if Kaepernick throws that last past two inches higher and Crabtree catches it then the 49ers win. But if Richard Sherman’s arms were slightly shorter then Crabtree catches it and we win the game. But if the game was played at Candlestick and not Century Link, then the 49ers would have won the game. But if we had Calvin Johnson on our team, then the 49ers would have won the game.

I mean, where does it end?

What is the point of watching football, what is the point of playing the games, if we’re just going to try to deny the results?

Sometimes it’s acceptable. The Ahmad Brooks-Drew Brees fiasco is an acceptable source of anger and “what if.” But only because the rule in place that allowed for that flag to be thrown is subjective and left to the whims of a referee, and in this instance especially so because that foul is clearly not called in a consistent manner whatsoever. The NFL has to answer to that. At the same time, the 49ers did not have some dominating performance stolen from them and handed to the Saints through that call alone. That game was close mostly because Colin Kaepernick’s would-be pick-6 was dropped as cornerback was diving into the endzone.

It is not acceptable, however, when you’re denying the results that are the clear and conclusive evidence of play on the football field, unmarred by any sort of subjectivity or circumstance.

The refs in no way affected the game ending interception. They did not affect any of the 49ers’ three turnovers. They did mishandle the fumble that should have rightly been awarded to the 49ers at the one-yard line during Bowman’s terrifying knee injury, but the fact is that we actually benefited from that missed call in a roundabout sort of way. Instead of being backed up against our own endzone we were gifted ten to fifteen extra yards of field position on the ensuing play. It was karmic justice certainly, but once again you can’t really go crying about officiating.

So that honestly leaves one possible outcome; that—god forbid a 49ers fan utter the words—the Seahawks deserved to win that game. The play on the field showed that, and showed it about as clearly and brightly as it can be shown.

Do I mean that the Seahawks were clearly and brightly the better team? No, those teams are as evenly matched as they come. They’re both grade-A teams. The Seahawks simply played and executed better yesterday, and thus they were the better team yesterday (as they have been in two of the three meetings between us), and so they deserve to be in the Super Bowl. It would take an actual insane person to legitimately believe anything otherwise.

But I guess that’s the beauty of sports, one of the cosmic draws to the adrenaline of the game and the pure loyalty of fandom—that very intelligent well-informed people can lose their shit for a moment, and do so in a socially acceptable way.

But the game’s over, we lost, and there’s no “iffing” our way out of it. The moment is over, so go ahead and return to reality please.

We have four draft picks in the first three rounds of the 2014 NFL Draft, maybe five if given a compensatory third-round selection for the loss of DaShon Goldson. We have two first-round talents joining the team from IR in addition to our draft haul (Lattimore and Carradine). We are going to be awesome for a long time. Keep calm and love the 49ers.

Take a page out of the 49ers’ book. We win and we lose with class (the team that is). Maybe you can argue that Harbaugh doesn’t—I personally think he does—but the 53 men in that locker room aren’t making excuses. They aren’t playing the “if, then” game.

They’re acknowledging defeat and responsibility for their part in that defeat, and they are already working at getting better. Because that’s their job, because it means more to them than we can possibly even imagine. So we should also acknowledge their defeat and their part in it, and also acknowledge their success and their part in it. Football isn’t over when the last whistle of the season blows; not for them and not for us.

Fans aren’t doing themselves or their favorite team any favors by writing off losses as aberrations, or “bullshit,” by discounting them through some sort of mental gymnastics particular to sports fans.

Because doing so disrespects the game. If we don’t respect the results on the field, then what’s the point of playing the games? We’d like to think we have more power than we do to decide who the winner and the loser of these games are. That through words and loyalty we can actually affect who is the better team. “Oh we may have lost that game, but we are better, and we deserve to be in the Super Bowl.” No, we aren’t. No, we don’t.

Look, writing isn't my "job" because I'm not paid to do it, but I love writing and I take great pride in it, in a way I'd like to think the 49ers players take pride in their jobs. If I post a lousy article filled with typos I would want to address it correctly, not make the excuse that if my fingers were positioned merely one inch to the left "gppyns;;" would have been "football." And I wouldn't want credit where credit isn't due. If someone writes better articles than I do, like Bill Simmons, you should read them and I should try to write better articles.

And as much as I’m sure it crushed the 49ers players to have lost, I don’t think they would want to be “explained” into the Super Bowl. Because the game is played on the field, and it was a game they lost, and they’re not going to make excuses for it, they haven’t been making excuses for it. We as fans, as writers, as observers of the game, need to respect the result, because it’s the right thing to do.

The players put their entire lives into games like this so that the results on the field matter. So let them matter.

NFL Championship Weekend: New England, Denver, San Francisco, Seattle and a Lombardi Trophy

I’ve waited this long to post something about this weekend’s games because I honestly don’t know what I can add to the discussion that hasn’t already been said. These were the games people were expecting back in August.

The Brady v. Manning storyline is about as interesting as a brown paper bag at this point. Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited as hell to watch those two duke it out again for a chance to go to the Super Bowl, I just don’t have any interest in hearing (or reading) about it anymore. I’m not a cruel guy, so I won’t subject my readers to something I myself can’t stomach. Brady is great, Manning is great, we get it.

Then there is almost-as-tired storyline about how both quarterbacks aren’t completely carrying their teams. They have running games now!

A conversation I did not actually witness, but which I know for a fact took place at ESPN at some point this week.

Merril Hoge: You know what Mark, everyone is going to want to talk about the quarterbacks in this game, and how can you not, we got two Hall of Famers battling, but both these teams run the ball exceptionally well too, let’s not forget. Knowshon Moreno—that guy is a factor back. He blocks, he catches and he eats up yards between the tackles. We all saw what LeGarrette Blount did to the Colts last Saturday. He’s a bruiser. I love the way he keeps his legs churning, doesn’t shy away from contact. When it’s all said and done, this might be the matchup that decides this football game; which team can run the ball better?

Mark Schlereth: I couldn’t agree more. Football games come down to one simple thing: Who controls the line of scrimmage. No one is talking about the offensive line play of these two teams, just fantastic. These are two hard-nosed football teams, and I don’t think that’s being talked about enough in the media.

If someone finds me a clip where this interaction actually happens I will give you absolutely nothing, because it shouldn’t be hard to find at all.

Really, with teams that are this familiar, teams that have made it this far and are this well known, there’s not a lot I can add that is outside the realm of the cliché and the overanalyzed. If you read this blog and have no exposure whatsoever to other NFL “experts” or writers or bloggers then I suppose this is going to disappoint you, however I don’t think I have any of those readers among my readership quite yet, so it’s a moot point.

You know what? I’m going to deny all the over-analyzing and cliché that’s been tossed around in the week leading up to this game with the biggest cliché of all, one that sometimes needs to be brought up when all eyes are on specific position groups or players:

The team that wins will be the team that plays better.

The simplest cliché in all of football, the least analytical analysis you can possibly conjure up, but one that is undeniably true. (Barring, oh I don’t know, say a new rule made up for Tom Brady so a fumble magically becomes a forward pass. But what are the odds, right?)

So after that cop out, let’s get to the Niners and Seahawks game!

I have been waiting for this game since the playoffs started… last year.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand I’m going to pull the same sort of cop out as in the last “analysis.” Look, I can’t add anything that hasn’t been said in the most obvious places. You want my analysis? Go read anything anyone has posted on NFL.com or ESPN.com. Somewhere in that jumbled mess of clichés and overused statistics is my analysis. It’s in there somewhere.

This is the third time these teams have played, the fifth in the last two seasons. What more can be said on paper? They’re going to say everything we need to hear on the field. They are familiar with one another, they know the other’s tendencies. They are both hard-nosed, fast, physical football teams and they dislike one another. Everything that needs to be said about the game is contained in that sentence, and it has been said with varying degrees of length and complexity by about 100 people in about 40 different corners of the internet.

I will add that I agree with the sentiment that in this game specifically, the first quarter is more important than in a typical NFL game, especially a typical playoff game. The Niners cannot fall behind and let the Century Link train get rolling. This is the Seahawks’ second-most important game in the history of their franchise (probably hardly cracks the Niners top-10). Outside of the 2006 Super Bowl against the Steelers, it hasn’t gotten any bigger than this for them. This is certainly their most important home game in their history.

The stadium, already a fortress of unsolitude, is going to be on-another-level absurd, like nothing the NFL has seen before.

The 49ers cannot afford to give the twelfth man the fuel to feed its fire. We have to come out of the gate fast and swinging, but with equal parts discipline.

I think we are capable of doing that. We are road-tested, and we have an incredible group of leaders and coaches. We are as close to “unflappable” as it gets. We just have to execute.

Once again, let’s reach back into our bag of clichés and pull out the most flaccid, clammy, uninteresting one we can! The team that wins will be the team that plays better.

What I can analyze is how insanely tickled I will be if the 49ers do win this game. I mean this in a way that’s ancillary to the pure joy and relief I’ll feel if we make our way back to the Super Bowl. In a very petty, childlike way nothing would tickle me more than watching a bunch of overconfident Seahawks fans walk out of their revered stadium shocked and depressed, tears rolling down their faces like Seattle rain.

This is a horrible part of me as a human being, I know it, but it’s part of the emotional milieu of diehard fandom; there are moments of ecstasy and togetherness balanced by the uncomfortable sensation that you’re going to have a creepy, evil smile spread across your face knowing that your rival fans are going to have a hard time sleeping at night as they replay, with torturous frequency, certain key moments that led to their team’s demise. Oh how tickled this would make me.

I feel like having this feeling makes it less likely that the Niners will win, just in terms of karma. Like the negative energy emanating from me is somehow going to infect the Niners with disorientation and lethargy.

But then I think about all the things I’ve heard/read Seahawks fans say over the last nineteen-or-so weeks and I remember that I’d probably have to murder in cold blood a village of children and puppies to even come close to turning the karmic tides. Those smug pacific northwestern loudmouths… They did this to me! I am only a monster because they brought it out in me. Fuck you Richard Sherman.

And now for my picks.

Patriots (+5.5) over BRONCOS

I’m not laying two field-goals on either of these teams. Even if the Broncos are better, do you really feel confident enough to think that they are so much better Tom Brady isn’t going to keep this thing within a hair’s breadth well into the 4^th quarter? I certainly don’t. In fact, I think the Pats are going to win. Bill Belichick > John Fox.

Pats 34, Broncos 31.

49ers (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS

WHO’S GOT IT BETTER THAN US!?!?

Niners 19, Seahawks 13. 

NFL Divisional Playoffs: The Other Games

This is probably my favorite week of the NFL season. Eight hours a day of great football played by the NFL’s best eight teams.

from huffingtonpost.com

This will probably not be Sean Payton's face after the game.

Saints (+7.5) over SEAHAWKS

No, I’m not picking the Saints to win this game outright. I’m hoping for it, but I’m not stupid enough to expect it. The Seahawks are one of the top three teams in football, hands down. The Saints are not. The Seahawks defense presents a really difficult matchup for the Saints, who don’t have a lot of receiving talent on the outside. Watch any football game involving the Saints and you’re inevitably treated to a bevy of stats and graphics about the ridiculous number of targets by Drew Brees to backs and tight ends. The Seahawks can match up one on one with the Saints receivers, the linebackers have the speed and tackling ability to make life difficult or impossible for pass-catching backs and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn can expend extra resources to the task of limiting Jimmy Graham. The Seahawks don’t have to do anything exotic or out of the ordinary to slow the Saints offense—we all saw that clear as day in the first meeting.

It sounds like I’m predicting a blowout, so why am I picking the Saints to cover? Sean Payton. If anyone can scheme offense to keep this game within reach, Sean Payton is the guy to do it and Drew Brees is an excellent choice to execute whatever genius plan his coach is going to concoct. I wrote in my last post that the quarterback-coach complex is the strongest indicator of a team’s playoff legitimacy, and Payton-Brees is the elite duo in the NFC (second only league wide, maybe, to Belichick-Brady). The Saints might be overmatched from a personnel standpoint, but given the experience of playing in Seattle once already this season, plus the added motivation of the embarrassment they suffered, and I expect the Saints to put up one hell of a fight. I would not be confident laying the points on the Seahawks—even if they are the superior team in the building with the most superior home field advantage.

Seahawks 27, Saints 23.

from barstoolsports.com

I have been waiting for an excuse to use this picture. God I hate that guy.

PATRIOTS (-7) over Colts

This is a matchup of two incredibly similar teams. The offenses are led by highly capable quarterbacks who raise the talent of the fairly mediocre receivers around them (T.Y. Hilton excluded), the running game is largely manufactured off the fear of the pass and headed by second-chance backs in LeGarrette Blount and Donald Brown, and the defenses are mediocre despite the fact they have shown they are capable of playing very well for stretches.

The major differences in this game are; the home field advantage, the fact that Luck has a much stronger penchant for turnovers than Brady, and that the Colts pass defense is weaker than the Patriots pass defense (while the Pats run defense is weaker than the Colts). This game isn’t about running the ball though, even if the Colts try to attack it that way. It will inevitably end up as a quarterback duel, and despite my complete faith in Luck and my longstanding hate of Tom Brady, it’s a duel I fully expect Brady to win.

Patriots 38, Colts 27.

from fantasybuzzer.com

He's listed as questionable, but if Mathews plays he's going to impact the game in a big way; whether that's with breaking off runs like this, or with fumbles remains to be seen.

Chargers (+9.5) over BRONCOS

The Broncos are probably the best team in the AFC, and the honor of me saying so is completely earned by their offense. Their offense is so far and above anything else in the AFC that it entirely makes up for their defense. They are not a complete team. They don’t just have holes here and there the way they Seahawks and 49ers do, they are simply bad as an entire unit on the defensive side of the ball.

So despite their incredible offense and the fact that I think that offense actually makes them the superior ball club in this game, I am picking them to lose this game.

The Chargers are just more balanced, and balance is a necessary component to postseason success. Shut down Peyton Manning and the pass game and you cut the metaphorical head off the Broncos. It’s so much easier said than done obviously, and no one has figured out how to “shut down” Manning this season, but the Chargers did a pretty great job—as good a job as anyone—in limiting that passing game during their Week 15 win in Denver.

Contrast that with the Chargers who have won games in every possible way this season; on the arm of Philip Rivers, with the legs of Ryan Mathews and with (at times) a stifling defense. The Chargers are just so much more multiple, flexible and adaptable, and that means a lot in a one and done scenario. Consider that last weekend the Chargers walked into Cincinnati (who had lost exactly zero games at home all season) and won the game in a very convincing 17 point drubbing (in the second half), and did this with Philip Rivers completing all of 12 passes. The Broncos simply could not win a game in which Manning completed even the number of attempt Rivers had at Cincinnati last weekend (16). Maybe that doesn’t matter, because there’s a very good chance Manning will put together another incredible quarterbacking performance, but if John Pagano and that Chargers defense put up any sort of legitimate resistance at all, it’s going to be very difficult for the Broncos to win this game.

Given the fact that the Chargers are officially what Bill Simmons refers to as “the Nobody-Believes-In-Us” Team of the 2013-2014 NFL playoffs, and Peyton Manning is almost as famous for blowing big playoff games as he is for glorious commercial acting (and his ungodly passing statistics and records I guess), I would not feel good laying the points for a double-digit Broncos victory.

Chargers 30, Broncos 28.

49ers vs. Panthers, Take 2: The One That Counts

from cbssanfran.com

Back on the grind, back on the grind.

I took a long time off from this blog for no other reason than I was lazy, and when I wasn’t lazy life got in the way. But I’m back to close out the season—a season I expect to end with the 49ers as Super Bowl Champs. The quest for six continues!

Last week’s games were awesome. I think enough has been said on those games without me rehashing everything. Andrew Luck is awesome, Alex Smith unlucky, Drew Brees clinical, Andy Dalton a mess, blah blah blah.

Look, here’s a rule I’m certainly not the first to point out, and it’s becoming so kicked around it’s already got the sour tang of a cliché. But it’s no empty cliché, it’s the absolute truth: If you want to win a Super Bowl you need a Super Bowl caliber coach and you need a legitimate (not elite) quarterback. The coach-quarterback complex is the ultimate indicator of championship legitimacy.

Marvin Lewis-Andy Dalton are not a championship caliber pairing.

Of the eight remaining teams, I’m fairly convinced by six of them of their legitimacy as contenders in terms of the coach-quarterback complex.

I am taking a wait-and-see approach with McCoy-Rivers (my hesitancy lies in McCoy, not Rivers) and Rivera-Newton (who are absolute wild cards as far as I’m concerned). You never know what you’re gonna get with Riverboat Ron—or as he’d prefer to be known, Calculated Risk Taker Ron—and Super-Cam.

The 49ers are inching closer to the Super Bowl, inching closer to a titanic battle of heavyweights with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.

But first—the Panthers.

from rugbywrapup.com

The storylines have been made clear; we owe them, we didn’t have three of our biggest stars for all or the majority of the game, the Niners are the best road team in football, the Panthers have no playoff experience. We’ve heard the Panthers will win because they field a defense that can confound Colin Kaepernick, because this is a game of two evenly matched teams but the Panthers are at home and in their time zone, because they have the added advantage of playing against the Vegas’ insulting spread, who made them home underdogs despite their superior seeding and win on our home field earlier this season.

I’m inclined to think all those things are going to affect this game in some way. It’s hard to estimate the psychological motivation such perceived slights have on hyper-competitive (likely unnaturally enhanced) athletes.

Because it’s impossible to estimate, I’m not going to say one team has more motivation or pressure to win this game than the other. The 49ers feel as if they owe the Panthers for a bad loss, the Panthers feel as if no one believes in them. Let’s call it evens.

I do think the Niners have the advantage as far as playoff experience. Once again, that’s an intangible advantage that’s difficult to quantify, but as Brady and Belichick, Eli Manning and Coughlin proven before, the been-there-done-that aspect of playoff experience is a legitimate advantage. Then again, so is home field advantage, especially when the 49ers have to travel east and play a game at 10 a.m. on their biological clock. Let’s call it evens.

I guess what I’m attempting to do here is even the playing field so to speak. If neither team has the outside advantage of extra motivation, or extra focus, or anything else intangible—if this game is played in complete neutrality (on paper basically) who wins?

I personally believe it’s the 49ers by a longshot. From a personnel standpoint the Niners are a superior team at almost every single position group.

You can make the case that Kaep and Cam Newton are essentially equals, and I wouldn’t necessarily argue that with too much fervor. In the previous match both played pretty poorly, though Cam played less poorly. Still, I can’t—as a Kaep supporter—not make the excuse for him that he was without two of his top weapons. Kaep is not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. He’s still developing, and he might never reach that pinnacle of passing prowess. He’s not quite at the level where he can singlehandedly raise the play of the receivers around him. However, when given weapons to work with, when given receivers he trusts, Kaep has shown he can absolutely control a game and put together a monster performance—even without a strong running game.

And therein lies the difference at the QB position: Kaep is a better quarterback with his weapons than Cam is with his.

from zimbio.com

Once again, you can make the case that these teams are equal at the RB position. You can say that DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert as a group are as good or better than Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon. You might be right. Still, Frank Gore is far and away, no argument whatsoever, the best running back that’s going to suit up for this game. He alone will affect this game more than the other five guys combined. Advantage 49ers.

I’ve already made my point about the pass catchers. Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis wipe the floor with a gimpy Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Greg Olsen.

I’m taking the 49ers offensive line over the Panthers as well. Both groups have been tremendous this season, but the Niners have two proven anchors at either end of the line, and absolute road-grading beasts in Mike Iupati and Alex Boone in the middle. The 49ers from a talent and continuity standpoint are capable of dominating any front seven in football on any given Sunday. I don’t think I can say that about the Panthers five linemen, regardless of how consistent they have been this season.

One area where I might have to concede the advantage to the Panthers is at defensive line. They led the league in sacks (60). Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy are tremendous edge rushers. Star Lotulelei is a load in the middle and was an absolute steal with the 14^th overall pick in this past draft. Dwan Edwards is solid inside as well, and Kawann Short is a very effective inside rusher. The Panthers’ defensive line is the real deal. On the other hand, Justin Smith, Ray McDonald and Glenn Dorsey are obviously nothing to scoff at. If the Panthers have an advantage here, it’s a small one.

from espn.com

I love Luke Kuechly. The guy is a beast, and he might be the best middle linebacker in football…not named NaVorro Bowman. I’m sorry, I know I have my 49ers glasses on and everything is a wonderful hazy hue of red and gold, but we are all watching the same NaVorro Bowman play football right? The guy is unbelievable, un-fucking-believable. He is so good that he overshadows Patrick Willis most games—you know, the guy that has been the consensus top linebacker in football the past half-decade. I know that this position group is getting attention above all others. There are going to be a lot of great linebackers on display in this contest, but none are playing better right now than NaVorro Bowman—who might be the best defensive player on earth at this moment in time.

I haven’t even said Aldon Smith’s or Ahmad Brooks’ name yet, and those guys combined for 3.5 sacks on Aaron Rodgers last game. And he only dropped back about 30 times! That’s pretty unbelievable stuff. Once again, throw the last game between these two teams out the window (when it could be argued, probably pretty strongly, our linebacking corps was outmatched by theirs) I’m giving the Niners the advantage at LB. Big-play-Bow is coming for you Cam!

The secondary is almost as easy to call as the receiving group was. The Niners win this one hands down. Eric Reid is playing at a level unknown to most rookie safeties, Donte Whitner is having the best year of his entire career, Tramaine Brock has been a revelation, Tarell Brown is just rock solid, and Perrish Cox played very effectively in last week’s game. If Carlos Rogers comes back this weekend, that’s just an added bonus to a group that is already playing at a very high level.

The Panthers secondary isn’t bad. In fact, they’re pretty damn good too. The individual names don’t jump out at you (except Captain Munnerlyn, that name always jumps out at you). As a whole, though, they are a pretty impressive group. They force turnovers and play very aggressively. Mike Mitchell in particular has raised the level of his game this season.

Still, I’d be being silly if I tried to claim, out of some misplaced desire to overvalue the 49ers' opponent in case we lose, that the Panthers are our equals in terms of talent in the secondary.

from zimbio.com

There’s the old adage, commonly used by Ray Lewis, that football is a game of three phases—offense, defense, and special teams—and that if you can win two of those three phases, you are probably going to win the game.

I can’t pretend to know too much about the Panthers’ special teams. I know Ted Ginn is an elite return man, even if he hasn’t housed one this season. He’s among the league’s best at turning field position. Ginn is a far superior return man to LaMichael James.

While I can’t pretend to know much about the Panthers’ special teams, I do know a lot about ours. Our coverage units are among the best in football, maybe second only to the Seahawks (who are ungodly good in their coverage units). Still, Ginn is a game changer as a return man—any 49ers fan worth his/her salt remembers that.

If the 49ers do go on to lose this game, I’d be willing to bet that special teams has something to do with it, and I’d be willing to further bet that Ted Ginn is the man responsible.

And yet, I don’t envision that happening. In fact, I think the more likely scenario is the 49ers win in all three phases of this game. They have the experience, they have the depth, and they have the talent to win on the road against a very good Panthers team in convincing fashion.

I certainly hope it happens, but if there’s one adage in football that will always, always stands the test of time it’s: Any given Sunday.

49ers 24, Panthers 16.