2018 NFL Mock Draft: The One and Only

I used to really enjoy reading and creating mock drafts. It was a teenage hobby of mine, right up there with building unbeatable juggernauts in ESPN NFL2k5's franchise mode through the simulated draft.

Much like blasting Saliva and Disturbed at ridiculous volumes on a silver Sony boombox while playing Jak and Daxter (#throwbacks amirite?), this hobby grew stale in my later years, but unlike angsty pop-metal and video games, I never really shook the habit.

Mocks are useless.

They're an exercise for beat writers and bloggers to discuss prospects and team needs in a brief and passing manner, a way to throw in some surface level analysis for the casual fan. For the more hardcore among us, they're just something to scroll through while you're sitting on the john at work.

So, without further ado, here's my one and only mock of the draft season. Happy pushin' lads.

(Apologies for the bare bones visuals.)

What I think could happen, not what I hope would happen, not what I would do. No trades.

1. Cleveland Browns - Josh Allen, QB Wyoming

• Gross.

2. New York Giants - Sam Darnold, QB USC

• QB has been a less and less popular pick among prognosticators here, but I point to the Jets trade with the Colts as reason enough to believe the Giants intend to take a signal caller here. If Gettelman really believes he can win with Eli for two or three more years, there's a 0% chance he'd pass up on three second rounders to go down to no. 6. And there's no way the Jets didn't try to go as high as possible with that trade package. 

3. New York Jets - Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma

• The Jets get exactly the guy they need to give the Pats a run for their money in the AFC East in the coming years. Broadway Baker becomes a thing. 

4. Cleveland Browns - Saquon Barkley, RB Penn St. 

• Best player rewarded with an all expense paid trip to hell.

5. Denver Broncos - Josh Rosen, QB UCLA

• If three QBs really do go top three in this draft I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Browns trade out and a team like the Bills or Cardinals make it four for four, but in this mock I have Elway taking Rosen, a guy I think he'll be more comfortable with than other executives in the league. After all, if anyone can relate to a spoiled prodigy with a big head coming out of college, it's John Elway. 

6. Indianapolis Colts - Bradley Chubb, EDGE N.C. State

• Tempted to give them Nelson given Luck's injury history, but edge rushers of Chubb's pedigree are hard to come by. 

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Quenton Nelson, OG Notre Dame

• Best player available helps an offense that severely underperformed last season.

8. Chicago Bears - Roquan Smith, LB Georgia

• Niners fans groan. Vic Fangio, benefactor of the Willis-Bowman tandem (and Dome Patrol), gets a premier LB to plug into the middle of his 3-4 alignment. 

9. San Francisco 49ers - Derwin James, S Florida St.

• We're positioned so well in this draft, any one of like 5 guys (not even including Barkley, Chubb and Nelson) would be an exciting pick. I love Derwin James, so the bias is strong with this selection, but I think he's an ideal fit as well. I know we have three starting caliber safeties, but Ward and Tartt are free agents after this season, and neither is the impact player James projects to be. I know Reuben may be out for four-six games/indefinitely/forever and we need a LB...but there's more than one way to replace Reuben. Keep in mind 60-70% of defensive snaps are nickel packages. Check this out:

• In base we play Tartt at FS and James at SS, giving us two highly athletic and speedy defenders capable of stacking the box or running down receivers in the open field. 

• Our nickel package becomes a big dime - we take out Coyle/Toomer/rookie for FS Adrian Colbert. Malcom Smith plays as the sole true LB in this package. James drops into the box to become the "second linebacker." Tartt slides over to SS. Ward becomes the nickel corner (sorry K'Waun, you take a seat in this dream scenario). That's an insanely fast, highly versatile, and hard hitting group of safeties roaming the middle of the field. It's a fascinating and - I believe - highly effective lineup.

• Let's not forget John Lynch played SS and Adam Peters was part of the brain trust that brought in T.J. Ward on a big free agent contract to create the "no fly zone" in Denver. 

• James, unlike Minkah Fitzpatrick, is an elite athlete. That gives him the edge on draft day. 

10. Oakland Raiders - Vita Vea, DT Washington

• No stop run, no win game.

11. Miami Dolphins - Tremaine Edmunds, LB Virginia Tech

• Edmunds is a little bit of a project, but he's a steal here.

12. Buffalo Bills - Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame

• The Bills get frozen out of the QB market in this mock, settling for the top offensive tackle in a year that they said goodbye to Eric Wood, Richie Incognito and Cordy Glenn. 

13. Washington Redskins - Denzel Ward, CB Ohio St.

• Redskins luck out and nab the top CB in the class to pair with Josh Norman and replace Kendall Fuller. 

14. Green Bay Packers - Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB Alabama

• Minkah becomes the new Charles Woodson/Micah Hyde of the Packers. An impact jack-of-all-trades on the back end.

15. Arizona Cardinals - Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama

• Fitz can tutor Ridley until he reties in 8 or 11 years (Ridley, not Fitz. Fitz is playing forever). 

16. Baltimore Ravens - Marcus Davenport, EDGE UTSA

• There will be temptation to help the offense, but then there's Joe Flacco, so the Ravens do what they always do, bolster the front seven and try to win with defense.

17. San Diego Chargers - Da'Ron Payne, DT Alabama

• The best interior pass rusher in this class pairs with Liuget, Ingram and Bosa to make life even easier on Casey Hayward. Chargers fans start thinking of trendy nickname like "Legion of Boom" or "Teal Curtain." 

18. Seattle Seahawks - Taven Bryan, DT Florida

• Highly athletic interior pass rusher. He fits the explosive profile that Schneider looks for and helps limit the damage of losing Michael Bennett and Sheldon Richardson in one offseason. 

19. Dallas Cowboys - Courtland Sutton, WR SMU

• Dez leaves, Sutton comes in. Is this connecting the dots too easy?

20. Detroit Lions - Derrius Guice, RB LSU

• The Lions have needed a talented grinder at RB for as long as I've been conscious. 

21. Cincinnati Bengals - James Daniels, C Iowa

• The Bengals draft pretty well and they don't let this future all-pro slip any farther.

22. Buffalo Bills - Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville

• The Bills take their shot. 

23. New England Patriots - Will Hernandez, OG UTEP

• Operation Timeless Tom commence.

24. Carolina Panthers - Josh Jackson, CB Iowa

• Hello Need, meet Value.

25. Tennessee Titans - Harold Landry, EDGE Boston College

• This is when I just decide to get drunk and stop hoping the Niners trade up for Landry.

26. Atlanta Falcons - Maurice Hurst, DT Michigan

• I called Payne the best interior rusher in the class, but really that title should belong to Hurst. If he had a completely clean bill of health he'd be borderline top 10. Undersized as a DT, but elite quickness. I remember Aaron Donald getting a similar scouting report. 

27. New Orleans Saints - Isaiah Wynn, OG Georgia

• His athleticism and ability to make blocks in space will allow Payton to get real creative unleashing Alvin. This also helps keep Brees clean in the pocket. Great pick. 

28. Pittsburgh Steelers - Rashaan Evans, LB Alabama

• Big, versatile, hard nosed linebacker who will be a tone setter for the Steelers. Would fit in really well next to Shazier when he comes back (get well soon). 

29. Jacksonville Jaguars - D.J. Moore, WR Maryland

• Good receiver for Blake Bortles to waste.

30. Minnesota Vikings - Mike Hughes, CB UCF

• Tough, competitive, instinctive corner gets to learn from a similar player in Terrence Newman, 

31. New England Patriots - Kolton Miller, OT UCLA

• Operation Timeless Tom commence, part 2. 

32. Philadelphia Eagles - Sony Michel, RB Georgia.

• What do you get the team who has everything (except a secondary that doesn't allow 500 passing yards in the Super Bowl)? An electric playmaker at RB. 

Hello Draftmas My Old Friend

Too long? Scroll to images at the bottom for the good stuff

It's been three-and-a-half long years since I last breathed life into this virtual space.

Lynch, Shanny and Jimmy are a tonic for the malaise that infected my fandom the past few seasons. I watched from across the ocean, went silent; returned, maintained that silence; but now... now I'm fully back. (Maybe.)

It's fucking draft time baby.

Hello again the to the Big Board. Hello again to useless mocks. Hello again to parking my ass in front of a television for hours to watch Doritos commercials as an antecedent to Roger Goodell misreading names off a glossy piece of cardstock.

Not even Reuben Foster can dampen the good spirits I'm feeling toward the football world right now. Well, OK, he can dampen them, but not enough to put out these rekindled flames.

Ready or not, here comes the heat.

Somewhere in the archives there's an overly lengthy post regarding how I come up with this Big Board. Suffice it to say that while that explanation may serve to enlighten readers on my process, it probably no longer reflects the true nature of the process.

I've gotten busier, lazier and rustier since then.

Still, I've always touted my own abilities as an armchair GM, and even with an abbreviated "scouting" process, I have no problem proudly stamping my name on the following list.


The Big Board was constructed with these considerations:

• IMPACT
• Players given a "Blue Chip" or "First Round" grade are likely to be good or great regardless of what team and scheme they play in

• POSITIONAL VALUE
• It's all well and good to rank players irrespective of their position, but I'm not doing advanced scouting on these guys for a year or more with a whole team of scouts at my disposal. QBs, EDGE players, and Tackles are going to get pushed up the board over similarly rated RBs and LBs. 

• 49ERS
• After the first round, things get murky. Players have less elite qualities (seemingly) and scheme fit needs to be considered. A guy like Isaiah Oliver, a tall corner with great length, is going to get pushed ahead of a similarly rated CB in Jaire Alexander, a shorter guy with great athleticism, because the 49ers play a Seattle style cover-3. 

• CHARACTER/MEDICAL
• This effects far fewer players on my board than it would in a real NFL draft room, as I am obviously privy to WAY less information than NFL teams. Still, it's well-publicized that Arden Key has/had some sort of off-the-field issues. That is taken into consideration. Likewise, I've seen reports (via WalterFootball.com) Leighton Vander Esch may be medically redflagged. Though not a first rounder in my book regardless, this news did push him down the board a bit. 

Blue Chippers

the best of the best

• Maybe the only surprise here is the inclusion (and high ranking) of Derwin James. Ultimately the guy is an elite, explosive athlete with great instincts and superb cover skills for a man of his size. The size, speed and hitting ability he can bring to any style of NFL defense is worthy of a top-5 pick in almost any draft. 

• No QBs - I've made the mistake of Blue Chipping unworthy QBs before because I thought they'd go top 5. Just because a QB is worthy of going No. 1 (like Mayfield or Darnold in this class), doesn't make them a can't-miss Blue Chipper. 

• Edmunds just made the cut for me. The more I watched him, the less I loved him. He's great when he has his eyes on a ball carrier, but gets lost too often when he can't diagnose the play. He's more of a run and chase artist than developed linebacker. Still, he's not even 20 and he's 6' 5" 250+ and runs a sub 4.6. Enough said. 

First Rounders

The Real Good

• Minkah just missed the cut for me. He's so, so solid on tape, but his best position appears to be slot cornerback, which, while increasingly valuable, is not a premier impact position. He also is not the elite athlete I hope to see when bestowing Blue Chip status on a player. 

• I've gone back and forth on Mayfield and Darnold since the end of the season. In the end, Mayfield's accuracy is just too good for me to rate Darnold ahead of him. Accuracy, for me, has to be at the top of the list of necessary traits for a QB. 

• I'm a big Harold Landry and James Daniels guy.

Second Rounders

The probably pretty good

• Per multiple media outlets Josh Allen is a strong possibility for the Browns at No. 1 overall. Far be it from me to question John Dorsey, but fuck me that would be a huge reach. Look, I get it, he's big and throws the ball like few on earth ever have, but he's inaccurate and needs a ton of work on the mental aspects of the game. He's just too big of a dice roll for any franchise to use a top 10 pick on, much less the unluckiest franchise in (arguably) all of sports. 

• I'm a big Austin Corbett and Michael Gallup guy.

Third Rounders

The could-be-goods

• I think Dorance Armstrong is being hugely overlooked as a potential mid-round fix for the LEO position. A scheme change in 2017 led to a horrible sack output, but he has the physical profile to be an impact at the position.

• Quenton Meeks, 6'2" Stanford CB with long arms, is such a perfect fit for us in the third round that there is absolutely zero chance we actually take him. It's a cosmic mystery how these things happen. 

• If the 49ers don't opt for Roquan Smith or Tremaine Edmunds at No. 9 their third round picks are a sweet spot for a potential Reuben Foster replacement. Darius Leonard, Malik Jefferson, Fred Warner and Josey Jewell are all potential fits and good value in this range. 

Fourth Rounders

Role players/Developmental Moonshots

• I could add another 20-30 guys who belong in this range but wanted to highlight this group of players for their specific fits on the 49ers.

• I clearly like a lot of running backs in this draft, but I think my favorite fit is Royce Freeman in the 4th round. He's a big, experienced runner with good one-cut vision and he'd complement our smaller, shiftier backs extremely well. 

• Duke Ejiofor and Kemoko Turay are polar opposites as potential LEO fits. Ejiofor lacks the athletic upside, but has positional versatility and great motor and technique. Turay is raw, but dripping with potential. He had just 4.5 sacks in his last collegiate season.

• I had to show Shaquem the love. 

Tune in tomorrow for my first and only mock of draft season!